US500 4 HOUR CHART – New High Then….
It seems more logical for caution TO set in after setting a new record high given early price moves seemed to be driven MORE by money market pricing shifting in favor of a 50bps Fed rate cut than the actual event.
In any case, it is still more than a day until the Fed decision so expect defense more thaN offense to dominate until that time.
I suggest reading the articles in our blog for a view on whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50bps.
GAP DLRx 100.5x
on the grander scale of charts, still looks weak.
But in the s/term, I am interested the GAP”s closing
yeah ! …”As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast.”
IF you look at the Swaps pricing for wednesday u d see that playrs are leaning towards a bigger cut. but u would also notices that it is a wishi-washi conviction.
Bottom line is that
– some will get smashed on wednesday which will likely manifest itself by displays of volatility.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Time for a pause?
What caught my attention in USDJPY has been
1) The bounce from sub-140 and then staying above it… deck wiped of sell stops on the break below 140.00-20
2) Typically USDJPY is most sensitive to US interest rates but it has not reacted to the fall in bond yields.
Price action suggests a pause for now but would need to get above 141.40-50, then 142+ to put 143.04 in play and make a case that the low is in for now.
Posted here earlier… NOTE the post-data low was dead on at 1.1115 (This is another reason we call it The Amazing Trader)-
Posted earlier
On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support
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