As any trader knows, it is the reaction to news (e.g. economic reports, monetary policy decisions0 that counts. This is where the saying Buy the rumor, sell the fact comes from. It also reminds me of the old trading adage, It is the reaction to news, more than the news itself that matters.
As anyone trading also knows, markets move when there is a surprise in a news event vs. the consensus forecast. In the current week, there is a full calendar where the focus will be on central bank monetary decisions from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
So, let’s take a look at what might produce a surprise.
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
With Federal Reserve easing within touching distance, U.S. stocks are not hanging about, underlining an uncomfortable aspect of the central bank’s decision this week.
Amid a fresh rotation of sectors from megacaps to small fry, the equal-weighted S&P500, which adjusts the main index to strip away the overwhelming influence of a handful of outsize stocks, hit a record high…
Morning Bid: New highs, rotation as Fed meets with retail healthcheck
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A BREATHER
XAUUSD has taken a pause below 2600 after setting a new record high at 2589, which now becomes key resistance.
Given the sharp move up, let’s take a look at retracement levels as potential levels of support (see our Fibonacci Calculator)
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BACK ABOVE 1.11
The shift in money market pricing in favor of a 50bpS Fed rate cut tomorrow is giving EURUSD support although it faces resistance at 1.1155 and 1.1190 ahead of the key recent 1,1201 high.
On the downside, it keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.11 with a stronger bid as long as 1.1115 holds as support
Next event risk: US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT.
As we wait for the Fed to make its widely anticipated interest rate decision, this is one that could go either way. The debate is not whether the Fed will cut rates but by how much.
50bps rate cut
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I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos
and more today by Greg Ip
take it fwiw, BUT probably more importantly: how will the market react
50bps rate cut
–
I already posted links to last week’s pro-big cut yakkings by the FT and wsj’s timiraos
So here is more screaming:
from never-trumper Dudley
brainard … remember her ?
National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard speaks at a press briefing
Mon, September 16, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. EDT
(Reuters) – Top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard on Monday declared that the U.S. economy had turned the corner in bringing down inflation and it was now time to focus on safeguarding recent progress in the labor market.
“Today, we are at an important turning point. Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels, and it is important to safeguard the important labor market progress we have made,” Brainard
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