[Mtl JP]

mea culpa JOLTS release time
I am spanking myself
–
10:30 – ecb’s nagel yaks

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.18 / 10-yr 4.060

I am thinking a push down to test 00 is a possibility but low probability sustained push below.

10:00 – Cons Conf
10:30 – JOLTS

[Anonymous]

EURUSD high 1.08557

Belgrade Bobby
KEYMASTER
EURUSD
Next hurdle at 1.08550

[Anonymous]

Next up US consumer confidence

Strong # expected

Economic calendar

[Swiss Frank]

I’ll offer my 2 cents (overvalued at that).
Treasury QRA less than expected maybe provokes some USD demand. But maybe they’re lying too. So maybe doesn’t provoke. Increasing threat of escalation in the Middle East? Maybe sees flight into USD.
Fed? Maybe more likely than not they eases off the inflation mantra and start to set market up for limited cuts -> USD negative to some degree.
NFP? who knows. At the end of the day I’m of the mindset its a made up number.
That it’s frolicking around the 200 day fools game levels maybe is no accident in the land of the non-committed….

[Mtl JP]

FED tomorrow

in the meantime euro’s frolicking with its 200day is a “wanker” ‘s game

I am biased down and looking to 10-yr for trigger

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD
Next hurdle at 1.08550

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD
The pair is trying to turn Up , as the FOMC is approaching this week.
Resistances are at 1.08400 and important one at 1.08850 – break of would open the way for attack at 1.11000
Immediate support comes at 1.08250/300 and needs to hold for any reasonable attack of the resistances.
Major support comes at 1.07350
Buying EUR intraday is a way to go – and always watch for that 1.08250/300…if goes bellow, count on 100 pips lower easily.

[Mtl JP]

I think (or is it hope ?) the 200 holds Res

in any case it is a low risk jab at the market

[Mtl JP]

tky !

[Anonymous]

JP,

1.0842 is 200 day mva

100 day mva 1.0773

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.057 as eurdlr retesting 200-day for res

which raises a trading qtn: to fade or not to fade

tia

[Belgrade Bobby]

JP, go to the Tools and open the chart…you can customize it fully…just take a bit of time to get used to it

[GVI Forex]

Inflation and interest rates drive the markets

The market probability on a ECB rate cut by April has risen to around 100%.

Out overnight, January UK BRC shop price index fell to a 2-year low of 2.9% y/y vs 4.3% in December.

Key focus is on the FOMC decision tomorrow and to what extent, if any, the Fed pushes back on market rate cut expectations.

[Swiss Frank]

1.0842

[Mtl JP]

someone please post euro’s 200-day

TIA!

[Mtl JP]

someone please post euro’s 200-day

TIA!

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.068%
–
WSJ – A Little Dual Easing Soon Could Help the Fed Avoid Major Easing Later
Federal Reserve policymakers are considering when to start cutting rates, when to slow down the pace of quantitative tightening – By Justin Lahart, Jan. 29, 2024

Treasury
Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the Treasury
4 hours ago

Bloomberg.com
US Treasury Cuts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $760 Billion
4 hours ago

Reuters
US Treasury to borrow $760 billion in Q1, lower than October forecast

[Caribbean! Rafe…]

people can also do equities and wait for low priced bond markets too. it just depends on what they wanna do as bond markets got something for everyone.

Gotta love the CB’s (FED, RBI) problem is can’t decide which one to love more. =)

toddlers feed both parents with all the fruits but when they get a tub of ice cream they say nooo!! ice cream is bad!!! and eat the whole thing!!

[Caribbean! Rafe…]

January 29, 2024 at 7:35 pm #947

Why don’t they like big badanna companies?

If fed decides to cut rates then nows the time to go into equities as a matter of fact the next theme for me is equities, and whoever bought bonds/papers and kept at it from 2022 onwards till now has more than enough capital to finance their possies, they got the 1% of equity they need from bonds… That 1% rule originated from the time of low priced bond markets of the 70’s-80’s.

And like I said before the american markets are mirroring indian markets from 2022-2023 onwards, only for a longer period of time… First a DCB then launching into rocket mode but those will be few and scattered throughout then back into bond rallies with even more astronomical rates. Since murricans don’t like 5.75% as I have forecasted last year then 11-13% is acheivable over a period of time provided bonds keep on dropping then jumping which will get them closer and closer to those levels but in order to do that it’s safer to get into some equities and let the bonds cook on the back burner for some more time. It’ll take time but bond buyers will get the rates they want whether it is 5% or 11% or even 1%…

If they don’t want low bond rates then it is better to not buy them at all.

[Author]

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