[SF Monedge]

Ok Monedge is back in GVI. We love Global View and hope you all have a great trading day. What worked for us last night was a sell stop in Usd/Jpy. Pretty dicey but our model simply said place it, sometimes you have to trust your model. The pair will obviously rebound but we do not feel like going long at this point, even though it is considerably sold. Jay has told everyone for decades to be careful about catching a falling knife. That could apply here.

[GVI Forex]

Bonds up (yields down), stocks down suggests portfolio rebalancing

FX follows bond yields

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.950%
–
for now everything is tied to the bond

[GVI Forex]

US yields dropping (10 year 3.96%) => FX following

[Belgrade Bobby]

As I said before – Data’s and FOMC tonight – perfect reasons for the market to have it it’s way….
While waiting for the Fed’s decision, go play a bit with some gadgets like Economic Calendar
If you click on any data , you’ll get a little chart , showing the past performance. An interesting add on 😀

[GVI Forex]

Month end

It is not a science but firmer stocks in the month often see USD selling as fx hedges are adjusted.

[Mtl JP]

Nick Timiraos in WSJ
–
Where Are Interest Rates Headed? What to Expect From the Fed Meeting
Officials are set to leave rates unchanged, shifting attention to what clues are offered about potential cuts

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-inflation-f46b5d41?mod=finance_lead_story

essentially same hymn as Jeff
fwiw

[Mtl JP]

jeff Cox
–
A change to this one clause could be the most important part of the Fed meeting – cnbc

– The Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday, and all eyes are likely to gravitate to one small piece of wording that could unlock the future of monetary policy.
– A phrase that has signaled the Fed’s willingness to approve “additional policy firming” has underlined its willingness to keep raising interest rates.
– Most of the public statements that officials have delivered in recent days point away from a hurry to cut. Markets, however, expect aggressive easing this year

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD
The pair went through support at 1.08250, but failed to cash in on that break…it was taken in 1.08050 area on Europe entry.
Supports right now at – 1.08200 and 1.08100
Resistances at – 1.08350 , 1.08550 and 1.08700
Intraday view : It should go lower from here, but the problem is todays data’s and FOMC – Placing bets in a day like this might cost you a whole margin.
So follow one of the Major Rules of Forex trading : Live to trade another day !

[Belgrade Knez]

EU Dec low at 1.0723 …it would be nice for Jan to trade below it, but it looks like bridge too far

[GVI Forex]

Interest rate cut expectations ahead of FOMC

Market:

March cut 50/50
At least 2 cuts by June
5-6 cuts in 2024

FOMC

In December it indicated 3 rate cuts in 2024

Today’s statement

Watch to see if further ‘additional policy firming’ is omitted.

[Mtl JP]

Frank Liesman on cnbc piece claimed that “Only 9% of CNBC Fed Survey respondents see the central bank cutting rates in March.”

[Swiss Frank]

Re Fed push back… There’s some discussion on the unexpected reduction in the QRA. Some see it as a way for the Treasury to limit the Fed’s impact of QT. So- Fed could either come in and “endorse” that line with a doveish outlook, OR push back and come in hawkish… Wouldn’t THAT be interesting to see a little behind the scenes conflict between the Fed and the Treasury… Betting windows are OPEN.

[Mtl JP]

oy vey
I am pretty sure that trading under emotion is not a good tactic
–
Fahmi Quadir, short seller nicknamed ‘The Assassin,’ takes aim at for-profit college giant Adtalem – cnbc
“It makes me mad, and I feel that everyone should be angry that our money is being abusefd in such a careless, careless kind of way,” Quadir said.” “And what do the executives of these for-profit universities do? Well, they pay themselves very well, and they also buy back plenty of their stock.”

maybe .. I ll be wrong this time

[Mtl JP]

my alter ego is now agonizing “will FED push back” ?

TIA to all who’ ll try to apease my agony

[Mtl JP]

Jay thanks for the update

but looks like a nothingburger to NY traders

[Mtl JP]

forex 4:56 // soooo … lets have more of “Germany’s economic outlook is not great” s !

[GVI Forex]

ECB’s Nagel (hawk) says Germany’s economic outlook is not great. Inflation is absolutely moving in the right direction.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

Looks to me that EURUSD might test the lower side again…watch Support in 1.08250/300 closely….If bellow, as I said earlier , it can slide 100 pips easy…not in one move of course 😀 Major support awaits at 1.07350

[Mtl JP]

odds are – according to me – that market is going into ying yang mode for a while and favour those with tight spread, quick on the trigger and fast connection and fast dealer execution

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