[GVI Forex]

US yields dropping (10 year 3.96%) => FX following

[Belgrade Bobby]

As I said before – Data’s and FOMC tonight – perfect reasons for the market to have it it’s way….
While waiting for the Fed’s decision, go play a bit with some gadgets like Economic Calendar
If you click on any data , you’ll get a little chart , showing the past performance. An interesting add on 😀

[GVI Forex]

Month end

It is not a science but firmer stocks in the month often see USD selling as fx hedges are adjusted.

[Mtl JP]

Nick Timiraos in WSJ
–
Where Are Interest Rates Headed? What to Expect From the Fed Meeting
Officials are set to leave rates unchanged, shifting attention to what clues are offered about potential cuts

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-inflation-f46b5d41?mod=finance_lead_story

essentially same hymn as Jeff
fwiw

[Mtl JP]

jeff Cox
–
A change to this one clause could be the most important part of the Fed meeting – cnbc

– The Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday, and all eyes are likely to gravitate to one small piece of wording that could unlock the future of monetary policy.
– A phrase that has signaled the Fed’s willingness to approve “additional policy firming” has underlined its willingness to keep raising interest rates.
– Most of the public statements that officials have delivered in recent days point away from a hurry to cut. Markets, however, expect aggressive easing this year

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD
The pair went through support at 1.08250, but failed to cash in on that break…it was taken in 1.08050 area on Europe entry.
Supports right now at – 1.08200 and 1.08100
Resistances at – 1.08350 , 1.08550 and 1.08700
Intraday view : It should go lower from here, but the problem is todays data’s and FOMC – Placing bets in a day like this might cost you a whole margin.
So follow one of the Major Rules of Forex trading : Live to trade another day !

[Belgrade Knez]

EU Dec low at 1.0723 …it would be nice for Jan to trade below it, but it looks like bridge too far

[GVI Forex]

Interest rate cut expectations ahead of FOMC

Market:

March cut 50/50
At least 2 cuts by June
5-6 cuts in 2024

FOMC

In December it indicated 3 rate cuts in 2024

Today’s statement

Watch to see if further ‘additional policy firming’ is omitted.

[Mtl JP]

Frank Liesman on cnbc piece claimed that “Only 9% of CNBC Fed Survey respondents see the central bank cutting rates in March.”

[Swiss Frank]

Re Fed push back… There’s some discussion on the unexpected reduction in the QRA. Some see it as a way for the Treasury to limit the Fed’s impact of QT. So- Fed could either come in and “endorse” that line with a doveish outlook, OR push back and come in hawkish… Wouldn’t THAT be interesting to see a little behind the scenes conflict between the Fed and the Treasury… Betting windows are OPEN.

[Mtl JP]

oy vey
I am pretty sure that trading under emotion is not a good tactic
–
Fahmi Quadir, short seller nicknamed ‘The Assassin,’ takes aim at for-profit college giant Adtalem – cnbc
“It makes me mad, and I feel that everyone should be angry that our money is being abusefd in such a careless, careless kind of way,” Quadir said.” “And what do the executives of these for-profit universities do? Well, they pay themselves very well, and they also buy back plenty of their stock.”

maybe .. I ll be wrong this time

[Mtl JP]

my alter ego is now agonizing “will FED push back” ?

TIA to all who’ ll try to apease my agony

[Mtl JP]

Jay thanks for the update

but looks like a nothingburger to NY traders

[Mtl JP]

forex 4:56 // soooo … lets have more of “Germany’s economic outlook is not great” s !

[GVI Forex]

ECB’s Nagel (hawk) says Germany’s economic outlook is not great. Inflation is absolutely moving in the right direction.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

Looks to me that EURUSD might test the lower side again…watch Support in 1.08250/300 closely….If bellow, as I said earlier , it can slide 100 pips easy…not in one move of course 😀 Major support awaits at 1.07350

[Mtl JP]

odds are – according to me – that market is going into ying yang mode for a while and favour those with tight spread, quick on the trigger and fast connection and fast dealer execution

[Mtl JP]

mea culpa JOLTS release time
I am spanking myself
–
10:30 – ecb’s nagel yaks

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.18 / 10-yr 4.060

I am thinking a push down to test 00 is a possibility but low probability sustained push below.

10:00 – Cons Conf
10:30 – JOLTS

[Anonymous]

EURUSD high 1.08557

Belgrade Bobby
KEYMASTER
EURUSD
Next hurdle at 1.08550

[Author]

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