[GVI Forex]

Alert

COI revision, CDA jobs due in 9 minutes

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.10
slight bid – against majors

on the longer term DLR’s trajectory uP is – in my optique – wishi-washi-iffy
probably needs yield to rally (n of 4.20/25) and / or some new hot econ data.

8:30 – CPI revision
*******************
US CPI next week

13:30 – logan flaps her gums

[Mtl JP]

I wish to tighten up the credit to that astute principle I quoted:

it belongs to Fed Governor Waller

[Mtl JP]

Jay 9:26 and just as “good monetary policy is based on data and not on hope” (ref link)

so is good trading tactic

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Having briefly cracked the 5,000 point milestone for the first time on Thursday, Wall Street’s S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab looks set to hold the line and sustain near 5% gains for the year so far – while a thin Friday

Morning Bid: Record Wall St holds, inflation revision eyed

[Swiss Frank]

JPY and CHF officials have recently voiced more policy clarity which has underscored rate differentials as a more predominant driver. EUR and USD officials have been more well we’ll see maybe sooner but probably later not sure how much we’re following the data but sometimes the data is questionable but have to see…

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD

After the sharp drop last week, EURUSD has so far traded a narrow but choppy 67 pip range as its focus is more on crosses, such as EURCHF and EURJPY. Comments welcomed.

 

[Swiss Frank]

These revisions seem like the outcome can only be skewed towards worse than what was reported. Better seems like a non starter as better has already been priced into rates markets which the employment number took care of in brief order, and even if the revisions show more improvement, who’s gonna believe it….

[GVI Forex]

JP, thanks for the alert. Here is the full story

The markets will keep a keen eye on Friday’s annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment factors for U.S. consumer price data. The annual revisions to the CPI are usually a non-event. However, the markets were spooked last year after large revisions to the seasonal adjustment factors sowed doubts about overall progress on inflation.

Will Annual Revisions to U.S. Consumer Prices Surprise Again?

[Mtl JP]

Jay / suggest a glance at my 3:06 post

[GVI Forex]

Very light calendar on Friday

Only key report is CDA employment

 

 

[GVI Forex]

Very light calendar on Friday

Only key report is CDA employment

 

 

[GVI Forex]

EURJPY breakout:

Look at this post earlier, the chart and the EURJPY breakout level

February 8, 2024 at 9:45 am

EURJPY 4 hour chart trying to break out to the upside (carry trades?)

[Mtl JP]

couple headlines off zh that caught my eye, fwiw:

–

“Boy, Markets Do Not Want To Sober Up When They Read The News”
As long as we get January March May June(?), or even second-half 2024 *deep* rate cuts from the Fed, markets will remain drunk

Biden Admin Is “All Gas, No Brakes” On Economic Reflation; Nomura Warns “Running It Hot” Into Election Wrecks Powell’s Plan
…beware of “animal spirits 2.0″…and the ides of March.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 1:47 PM EST  4.152% +0.054

it has been higher and also lower.  now uP off its “lower”

for my sake … yield needs to go higher still

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily view 

Resistances are at 1.07900 and 1.08450/500 – break of would open the road for Up Trend and the test of Major 1.11000 area. That would be a game changer.

Supports are waiting at 1.07550 and 1.07150 , break of targets directly ( ideally ) 1.06100 over period of 2-3 days.

Outcome for tomorrow – if we get a close bellow 1.07700 tonight, there is a higher possibility for immediate continuation of the down move. There is always a possibility to see uptick up to 1.08200 , and then down.

[SF Monedge]

Ok Monedge is back.  I learned that to trade spot you better have a sense of humor.

[GVI Forex]

Oil on the rise

WTI 4-hour chart (Brent tested $81)

[Mtl JP]

not on gv’s calendar, so fwiw:

–

Last time this puppy came out players got a “surprise” (kick in their trading teeth)

Updated seasonal factors to be introduced February 9, 2024
Bureau of Labor Statistics (.gov)https://www.bls.gov › cpi › 2024 › seasonal-adjustment
The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available at Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx needs to hold 104

if it s to see 104.50 ++

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