[GVI Forex]

So you are saying the market is pricing in a miss on the upside?

Maybe it is more of a non-event as in recent months the USD has traded soft ahead of CPI.

[Swiss Frank]

ok keymaster if you think so, fine… To me it looks like todays price action is pricing in something higher than low expectations of mom and yoy numbers. Thus a possible explanation of stronger USD today, for lack of any other discernable reason… But I could be wrong.

[GVI Forex]

SF, the focus is more on core inflation

See our Economic Calendar

[Swiss Frank]

Re CPI tomorrow 0.2 MOM and 3.0 YOY seem like kinda low expectations to fade in advance…. Maybe

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY Daily chart

Paused below 150

So far just a correction as long as it stays above the 148.80 breakout level

 

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 4-hour chart

1.0762 = key support (tested)

1.0758 = current trendline

1.0778-82 = intra-day resistance

1.9762-1.0805 = range so far today

[Swiss Frank]

Democratic convention will start Aug 19. Good night Joe have to be before then so June/July seems reasonable.

For the record Rep convention will be July 15.

[Mtl JP]

those with elevator experience (2007 snp 5yrs to peak one 2008 year to poof! example) have a sensitive n fast trigger to get OFF

animal spirits love the comedy

[GVI Forex]

Quiet start to the week. All pairs only show marginal changes vs. Friday’s close although the dollar is off early lows. The weakest is NZDUSD  (-0.34%), and the strongest is USDJPY (-0.14%). Others are all in single digits

USDJPY 15 min chart

 

[Mtl JP]

Frank 6:57 / personal expectation bet is that “they” will retire joe – at latest – by somewhere between may and june

[GVI Forex]

Swiss Franc

There is an old saying in trading, goes up like an escalator and down ie an elevator

[Mtl JP]

may vs will
–
* Germany’s economy has been struggling and the latest data has provided little hope for improvement.

* Economists say the worst may soon be over, but are still not hopeful about economic growth in 2024 and suggest the country may enter a technical recession this year.

* Headwinds include a slowdown of global trade, higher energy prices, and national and international political uncertainty.

Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between

low cost, plentiful and accessible energy is essential for a humming economy and a comfortably satisfying standard of living

[GVI Forex]

Holidays update

Closed Monday

Japan, China, Hong Kong and Singapore

Closed Tuesday

Hong Kong, China

Closed all week

China

Monday Feb 19

US Presidents Day holiday

The day after the Super Bowl is not a holiday but..

An estimated 16 million Americans are expected to call out sick Monday after their football festivities, according to a survey from a human resources firm…CBS6

[Swiss Frank]

The question people should be asking re Biden is not whether he runs in the next election but if he’ll last thru this term… Still 11 months to go til Jan 20 next year….

Re JPY- The challenge to trading short JPY positions is the BOJ is holding aces (duh, right?). One comment on shift in policy and the elevator takes the express route down. As soon as they view things a bit too far too fast, they play a card… Game of chicken in other words… I don’t have a good answer for this one other than trade the trend but only with short term trades. Points get left on the table but you sleep better at night….

[Mtl JP]

more bells
–
Biden Has More Than an Age Problem. Voters Don’t See Him as Presidential.
Many voters view Biden as failing to fully embody the office of the presidency despite his legislative achievements—in part because he hasn’t created a strong emotional bond with them. WSJ, Aaron Zitner – February 10

[Mtl JP]

for whom the bell tolls
srce NYPost:
–
Whopping 86% of voters feel Biden is too old to finish another term: poll
By Ryan King February 11, 2024

Jill Biden defends Joe, suggests special counsel tried to ‘score political points’ using son’s death: ‘How the hell dare he?’

By propping up Biden, Dems are committing elder abuse — and abusing the nation

How first lady Jill Biden and staff ‘protect’ Joe from White House press corps as concerns grow over his mental capacity

Rachel Maddow suggests Joe Biden isn’t too old to be president because ‘he rides a bike’

Jill Biden and Dems committed elder abuse on Joe — now they must force him to step aside – Post Editorial Board February 8

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Day ahead :

Resistances at : 149.350, 149.600, 150.050 and the target at 152.650

Supports at :     148.950, 148.600 and  147.600

Yen is on the losing streak , as you would expect. It is very bullish on both – Daily and Weekly chart. If you have really traded Yen, you know that it can have some crazy drops , just to come back up with the vengeance.

Buying it at the current rate is a bit problematic, as any reasonable and useful stop would be at a minimum 30 pips away . Best scenario would be to see some retracement over night , and to be able to pick it up around the steep trend line at 148.600. But…it is up to you and your style….I said at least three million times in past the famous sentence : FFS, I should have bought it 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Day ahead :

Supports at : 1.26250, 1.26100, 1.25700 and 1.25150

Resistances at : 1.26450 , 1.27700, 1.27850 and 1.28300

As you can see from the chart, the Demon spends days in some sideways to nowhere , just to get wild once in a while.

My best strategy would be to play it like a range, taking into account that there is no fixed-visible range. Cable can hit extremes on both sides, just to come back where it was…more or less.

An idea is to Short it at 1.26450 for a run at 1.26100 ( conservative approach ) , or even 1.25700 ( adventurer level 😀

I have added some Fibo retracements for the fans of it, and for all of us to have some perspective.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Day ahead

Resistances : 1.07950 and 1.08350/400

Supports      : 1.07800 , 1.07700 and 1.07200

Judging by the current pattern, we should see the attack at the supports tomorrow, but expect as always for Europe to do some buying early euro morning…if they break through 1.07950 we should see at least 1.08200 ( depending on how they spent their weekends…)

Always check the Economic Calendar, to be sure you are not engaging when you shouldn’t.

 

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local) – Economic Calendar

US consumer prices on Tuesday lead the week’s calendar, expected to remain steady on the month for the core but to slow on the year both overall and for the core. India’s CPI on Monday is expected to cool.

Tuesday will open with UK average hourly earnings (part of the labour market report) where noticeable cooling is expected. UK’s CPI will follow on Wednesday where the headline annual rate is expected to climb 2 tenths to 4.2 percent.

The first estimate for UK fourth-quarter GDP will be a Thursday highlight and is expected to come in unchanged on the quarter but rise 0.4 percent on the year. UK retail sales for the month of January will be posted on Friday and are expected to rebound from a weak November. Sizable contraction is expected for Eurozone industrial production on Wednesday.

US retail sales and industrial production are both on Thursday and both are expected to be flat (all data for January). On Friday, US consumer sentiment for February is expected to edge further higher after surging in January.

Econoday

[Author]

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