[GVI Forex]

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[GVI Forex]

Quiet start… light data day … a bunch of Fed speakers but pushback is the party line… usd a touch lower… bonds, stocks steady at the moment

[Anonymous]

Light calendar tomorrow.

EURUSD 1.0723 is current line in the sand

GBP 1.28,JPY 148, CAD 1.35, AUD .65 are all “magic” levels

[Mtl JP]

side A – “Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says” – cnbc

side B – “Dow climbs as Wall Street attempts to move back toward record levels”

Investopedia:
What Is a Discounting Mechanism? A discounting mechanism operates on the premise that the stock market essentially discounts, or takes into consideration, all available information including present and potential future events. When unexpected developments occur, the market discounts this new information very rapidly.

[Mtl JP]

kashkari
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2024/neel-kashkari-at-the-national-bureau-of-economic-research-summer-institute

flip flop yik yak
claimed inflation rate slide speed and hot labor = conundrum

that is a good thing for my book – I expect – when the FED is flummoxed
should mean FED stays pat with its policies as it awaits de-flummoxisation (I just made up that technical term)

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0745-ish
–
I expect to be on the market’s side selling the puppy on pops while under 1.0765/70

initial trgt 1.0715; in the longer term sub 1.07 and lower

[Mtl JP]

Yield | 1:18 PM EST —- 4.087%

I am biased. us economy is, allegedly, running hot.
hotter than canada’s, hotter than euro’s.

so I am looking for turn uP

[Mtl JP]

sleep well peasant
–
Yellen Says Commercial Property Is a Worry, But Regulators Are on It
(Bloomberg February 6, 2024) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while losses in commercial real estate are a worry, US regulators are working to ensure that loan-loss reserves and liquidity levels in the financial system are adequate to cope.

[Mtl JP]

ya hear peasant: private
–
Global debt roundtable to discuss rating agencies at Wed meeting
LONDON (Reuters) – Global creditors are set to discuss how rating agencies arrive at some assessments for sovereign creditors’ ratings at a virtual meeting on Wednesday, two sources told Reuters.

The online workshop will focus specifically on rating action on sovereign creditors with regards to debt reprofiling, swaps, buy-backs and debt service suspension, the sources said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. …/..

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.092
–
* mester’s yak not helping yield
– 12:45 BoC’s macklem yaks
– 13:00 yellen’s dept peddles 54bln in 3yr paper
– 13:00 kashkari
– 14:00 Collins
– 14:10 macklem presser
– 19:00 harker – on FED’s role in economy (oh please.. pray do tell)

eurdlr 1.0753
– for dlr to get some foothold yield will probably need to see a turn towards and past 4.20%

US CPI next week (feb 13)

[GVI Forex]

Once again, follow the bond yields…

[Belgrade Bobby]

And of course when I wanted to prove the point, they reacted as a dead horse….but ok…we’ll try the same thing tomorrow 😀
I just might keep my mouth shut sometimes…

[Belgrade Bobby]

And now to conclude todays lesson in real time – about 10 min prior to UK Exit, the mess starts…it is ALWAYS The No Mans Land….Risking it might prove deadly…for your margin…Don’t be disappointed if the position that you held prior to it would make some extra pips…even lots of it…it usually happens the opposite way – Murphy’s Law ! You can sit back , enjoying your freshly made pips and observe what happens .

[Belgrade Bobby]

Yet another observation ( worth apx 30 years 😀 – on UK closing – in about 50 min, things gets messy…so if we close this 30 min above 1.07440, attack at 1.07500 area will happen…and cause of added impact of UK close ( closing the positions, adding to them ) we can easily hit 1.07600..
I am writing this way to help those with less experience understand how it works…

[Belgrade Bobby]

1.07300 held nicely this half hour, and it reached up to 1.07438…is it going to go any further, I have no idea…double top is now formed on 30 min chart , so there is a barrier now….

[Belgrade Bobby]

I was caught numerous times in the trap of crosses…just to see at the end that if I stayed with the original strategy , it would play out well. Because of it, I concentrate on the majors , and if I smell some development coming from crosses, I just sit back…and wait…This spider web of currencies is way to complex to be able to handle it parallelly. I know that some funds are playing it with their AI systems, but no one made a real success with it , so far. For us, individual traders, surviving on 60-40 odds or even less is not something we can afford…Ah, I went way aside in my thoughts 😀

[GVI Forex]

Could it also be GBPCHF as EURGBP is lower today?

[Swiss Frank]

well… usd/chf goinmg up and eur not moving… Just sayin….

[Belgrade Bobby]

I am not sure if there is enough interest in EURCHF to be able to really decide the EURUSD fate … We’ll see very soon…

[Author]

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