US500 15 MInute Chart – rISK oN
When looking at CFDs, different brokers can have different pricing for the same symbol, which makes it hard toi identify specific chart points.
However, charts should look similar, although actual price levels may differ.
In this US500 chart, note how red AT lines dominate, indicating the risk on the upside.
The sharp move-up today has so far passed just below a key resistance line.
Stocks have so far ignored a tick uo in US yields nit the dollar seems to be getting a mild lift from it.
EURUSD 4 H
Without getting into Res & Sups now, problem with this picture is that the Trend line bellow was violated, but they NEVER closed bellow it. I don’t want to be a devil’s advocate here, just pay attention to it. Might mean nothing, but at the end looking at past performance one would always say : of yes, they have never closed below the trend line…it was obvious…
So, as long as the Support stays intact, be very very careful.
EURUSD 30 Minute Chart – YAWN
EURUSD is so far winning the tug-of-war, trading just above 1.09 in what is still a market on hold ahead of key events. Note the red AT lines showing the risk has been on the upside, now dependent on 1.0896 holding to keep a bid, stronger if 1.09 can become support.
As the chart shows, with little above the market until 1.0946, there is little to go for in terms of stops, leaving the focus on 1.09 to set the tone
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
The key flow giving EURUSD support is a firmer EURJPY ahead of the BoJ decision early Tuesday.
If you want to sell JPY and not force the BoJ to intervene, one way is to follow the path of least resistance, which is on its crosses.
The chart shows 3 levels of resistance above the market and on the downside, needing to hold the 162.17 level to keep a bid.
As SF Monege pointed out. the prudent approach is to step back and let the dust settle on the BoJ decision as all that is certain is that there should be volatility following it.
EURGBO 1 HOUR CHART
Flows into EUR crosses seem to be behind the better EURUSD tone (testing 1.09,) in a market biding its time ahead of key monetary policy decisions this week.
This created a tug-of-war with the USD caught in the middle.
One of the crosses is a firmer EURGBP (in a tight range), so far pausing just below .8560 resistance, which stands in the way of the .8578 level, the top of the current range.
It looks like this cross finds a bid on dips as long as it stays above .8545-50.
SINGAPORE, March 18 (Reuters) – Even as the Bank of Japan prepares for a pivotal change in monetary policy, analysts say much more will need to be done to materially shift the roughly $3 trillion of yen Japanese investors have parked in global bond markets and yen trades.
AUDUSD Analysis: Breakdown and Potential Downside Movement
AUDUSD has recently broken below the 0.6584 support level, signaling that the upward movement from 0.6477 may have concluded at 0.6667.
Further decline is still possible in the upcoming days, with the next target set around 0.6535. If the price manages to break below this level, the focus could shift towards the 0.6500 area.
The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6585. A successful breakout above this level could potentially bring the price back towards the falling trend line on the 4-hour chart.
A breakthrough of the trend line resistance would suggest that the downward movement from 0.6667 may have concluded, with another rise towards the previous high at 0.6667 potentially in the cards.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The Bank of Japan, given an uplift in inflation and strong gains in wage negotiations, is expected to tighten policy, a move that would dominate Tuesday’s session and upstage what is expected to be steady policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
There are no expectations for looser policy from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday nor the Bank of England on Thursday, though there is some talk that the Swiss National Bank, given noticeable weakness in Swiss inflation, could cut rates at its meeting on Thursday.
Slowing for industrial production and retail sales are the consensus calls for Chinese data on Monday that will cover the combined months of January and February. Yet such results would not be expected to trigger a further rate cut in the country’s loan prime rates on Wednesday.
Canadian CPI on Tuesday is expected to re-accelerate slightly in contrast to expected slowing for UK consumer prices on Wednesday. Japanese CPI data are expected to be mixed but rise sharply at the headline level on Friday.
New Zealand GDP on Thursday is expected to be marginally positive while Australia’s labour force survey, also on Thursday, is expected to rebound. Both UK and Canadian retail sales on Friday are expected to be weak. PMI flashes on Thursday are expected to show marginal improvement for Germany and for the Eurozone as a whole.
Econoday
GV-BoJ does give a heads up to the world if they are going to make a move such as intervention. In this case they gave fair warning for a major shift. I believe it would be responsibe to be flat if possible headed into Monday. It will affect every pair If they do. IF one decides to be in the flow, you better be on your toes.
Is this a leak from Nikkei Asia?
TOKYO — The Bank of Japan is expected to end its negative interest rates when its policy board meets on Monday and Tuesday, Nikkei has learned, marking the first rate hike since February 2007 in a turning point for the BOJ’s long-running monetary easing policy.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
THE FOCUS TO START THE WEEK WILL BE ON USDJPY AND JJPYCROSSES AHEAD OF THE BOJ MARCH 19 DECISION.
The only levels that really matter are 148 and 150 as key levels lie outside of it although 148.03 (and the trendline) are key supports on this chart (suggests 149 as the midpoint)
There are several articles on the BoJ and JPT in our new and outstanding blog
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