A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Much like Wall Street’s rapid healing on Friday, Japanese stocks completed their week-long, hair-raising round trip on Tuesday as Tokyo markets returned from holiday, wiped out the remainder of last week’s losses and nudged the yen lower.
Morning Bid: Market lull as PPI eyed, Nikkei returns to base
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING
A case can be made for a 145-148 (or 146-148) consolidation range after the brief blip yesterday to 148.22 failed to follow through. A solid move above 148 would be needed to put 150 in play again.
If USDJPY settles into a range, then the cost of carrying a long JPY may become a factor.
Otherwise markets seem to be waiting for
Iran to attack
US CPI on Wednesday
Risk on start (stocks up)
GBPUSD tests 1.28 after UK jobs report
JPY trading softer (but USDJPY is still below 148)
EURUSD lagging on EURGBP dip
XAUUSD backing off after testing 2477 resistance (noted yesterday)
Markets seem to be betting on no Middle East escalation assuming Iran will launch its strike
US CPI on Wed is not expected to alter rate cut expectations barring a surprise
Jay 3:49 my personal preference is for timesofisrael
like this latest on their f/page
“IDF on ‘peak alert’ for Iran, Hezbollah attacks; US expects it may happen this week
By Agencies, Emanuel Fabian, ToI Staff and Jacob Magid
Senior officials say Iran has made same preparations as it did before April attack, though exact timing of launch unknown; army says still no changes to civilian guidelines”
FWIW
EU’s Thierry Breton threatens Elon Musk over tonite’s Trump interview over some “harmful content” as imagined by Thierry
A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader
In an article entitled A Bold Prediction for USDJPY I listed a series of forum posts from one of our long-time and highly respected Global-View community members, whom I called a savvy trader.
As you can see in the article, he called the top in USDJPY and more.
So, given what I called his bold prediction, I would be remiss if I didn’t share (with his permission) this email I received from him last night.
A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader
S&P 500 – SPX
US indexes waver ahead of economic data; CPI in focus
Real estate S5REAS and financials SPF were the top losers among S&P 500 sectors, down 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.
The benchmark S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite IXIC recouped most of their losses from last Monday by the end of the week. The S&P 500 had suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly two years on recession fears and the unwinding of currency carry trade positions involving the yen.
Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index reading and retailer earnings to assess demand by shoppers.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily
“Possible Bitcoin price drop to $52K rises as BTC derivatives data shows traders losing hope” Mainstream media….
But in my opinion, technically speaking – Close tonight above 59.300 would create a very Bullish Pattern – a perfect ground for attack at 70 K once again.
However , close below 58.200 would call for at least 56K and 50 K soon after.
Nvidia – NVDA
Nvidia Corp stock is trading higher on Monday, attributed to its success in the Al market through its CUDA software platform and dominance in the Al chip market.
Nvidia, seen as a top choice for rebound in the semiconductor sector, may gain from a Q4 sector recovery. Its new Al-focused Blackwell chip is set to spur growth.
Iran will not go very far with its military aspirations. This is why:
Not including other allies of Israel, The US has 63 U.S. bases, garrisons, and shared facilities in the middle east region. began last October, attacks by Iranian proxy forces on these sites have killed or wounded at least 145 U.S. personnel on Middle Eastern bases. U.S. and allied forces have been attacked more than 170 times during the Gaza war: 102 times in Syria, 70 in Iraq, and once in Jordan
Among other assets, the US just positioned Carrier Stike Group 9 (USS Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier) to the Persian Gulf. This includes one just added Nuclear attack submarine which is joining another already there, and another with the Carrier Stike Group.
Carrier Air Wing 11
The “Fist of the Fleet” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 25 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Lemoore, Calif.
The “Black Knights” of VFA 154 – F/A-18F – from Naval Air Station Lemoore.
The “Blue Blasters” of VFA 34 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Oceana, Va.
The “Fighting Checkmates” of VFA 211 – F/A-18E – from Naval Air Station Oceana.
The “Rooks” of Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 137 – EA-18G – from Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Wash.
The “Liberty Bells” of Airborne Command and Control Squadron (VAW) 115 – E-2D – from Naval Air Station Point Mugu, Calif.
The “Providers” of Fleet Logistics Squadron (VRC) 40 – C-2A – from Naval Station Norfolk, Va.
The “Wolf Pack” of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 75 – MH-60R – from Naval Air Station North Island, Calif.
The “Eightballers” of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 8 – MH-60S – from Naval Air Station North Island.
Cruiser
USS Lake Erie (CG-70), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
Destroyer Squadron 23
Destroyer Squadron 23 is based in San Diego and is embarked on Theodore Roosevelt.
USS John S. McCain (DDG-56), homeported at Naval Station Everett, Wash.
USS Halsey (DDG-97), homeported at Naval Station San Diego, Calif.
USS Daniel Inouye (DDG-118), homeported at Naval Station Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
Here is the earlier report
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