[SF Monedge]

Looking for 8850 at least in AudCad, reversed Eur earlier for a push.  Chf is dominant today.  Holding sell side UsdJpy for now.

[SF Monedge]

Thank you Bobby.  Quite possible and see that.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY – Monedge, if 151.500 holds, we’ll have next leg Up

[SF Monedge]

Already short UsdJpy multiple times and once again.

[GVI Forex]

USD 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS BUT…

USDJPY remains within 151-152 with the market wary of pushing the top side too hard.

However, given the overall USD strength and the pop in bond yields, any intervention would likely prove short-lived unless it continues in a sustained way.

With that said, traders will be wary as they do not want to get caught in the first wave should there be intervention.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – It’s the reaction to news that matters

USD up across the board after a stronger ISM PMI report

GBPUSD has layers of old support below the market but the key level is around 1.25.

Down trend is in force as long as the trendline holds.

[Swiss Frank]

I think there’s two levels to be aware of wrt eur/usd forming a base. The first is nearby around 1.0725-1.0690….

The second is lower down around 1.0550.

Both would form a right shoulder for an inverted S-H-S if things are destined to play out that way.

Personally I think there’s enough divergence and other stuff going on that would say it doesn’t. But one never knows….

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.741

–

FWIW I see down gap from 1.0772ish

[SF Monedge]

Against the grain high risk, testing short UsdChf here at 9050 and buy side of AudCad.  Very light with very tight stops, not for the squeemish.  If it sticks the R/R is very good.  If not, it would be clear today sets the tone for the quarter with Usd strength.  Proper trade is long Usd from Asia.  If it doesn’t stick, the trade is long Usd until the cows come home.

[GVI Forex]

Big miss on the ISM PMI upside (above 50). Yields upo. USD up.

See our economic calendar

[GVI Forex]

US yields are opening higher (10 year +8.1bps at 4.2750%

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures have drifted lower overnight but there is limited liquidity below current price.  It is showing in Usd as it is holding, which is consistent.  It is my experience it would require something significant for futures to move down further much, so the potential for futures to hold and Eur to catch a bid are present.  Quite risky though, a Warren Buffet buy when they are selling trade if you have the courage.  Prefer to see the open in stocks and the data on this Monday out of responsibility.

[Mtl JP]

On deck:
–
Release: Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations – srce: BoC

10:30 (ET)
The Business Outlook Survey is a summary of interviews conducted by the Bank’s regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada’s gross domestic product. The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations is a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

Today marks the start of a new week, a new month, a new quarter and a new set of data to get investors going. Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index landed when most markets were closed, making this the first real chance to digest the numbers.

Morning Bid: Manufacturing kicks off jobs-packed week

[GVI Forex]

Swiss Frank, thanks gif that very informative April 1, 2024 at 6:57 am update. This type of post is what makes traders come back to our forum as you never know when one will light a bulb in your head as it makes sense of the price action.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD ONE-HOUR CHART – APRIL FOOLS DAY?

XAUUSD’s relentless rise is no joke as it continues to move into uncharted record-high territory. This makes looking for resistance pure guesswork so use the most recent high (2265) as the closest key level.

The two blue AT lines off the high raise a risk of a pause but only one that might be confirmed if XAUUSD moves below 2250.

On the downside, look for support as long as it trades above 2200-20, a stronger bid should 2250 becomes support.

[Swiss Frank]

Holiday almost everywhere in EU markets today. Here’s the monthly outlook from Alpha Picks for EUR/USD. Apologies if taking up too much space…

The ECB will be meeting on April 11th, and this should play out interestingly. Looking at the EURO on the 1 month time frame is where we will begin. We have observed massive demand for put buying relative to calls, and I do believe that this will continue to be the case into the ECB meeting as the market starts to anticipate a much more dovish ECB relative to the FED. This should start to put some downside on the EUR/USD. Hence, there is anticipation for this sideways chop in EUR/USD spot to start to fade, and for the EUR to move lower relative to USD. Implied vol on the one month has started to rise with a 40bps rise in implied vol now sitting at 5.40 vols.

Looking at the EUR/USD 1m Risk Reversal 25 delta, we are now witnessing rollover. Currently, we are seeing more buying of puts than calls. However, since COVID the overall level is relatively in line with where the options activity has been. Looking at the implied vol. this is also relatively low, and it does not appear that anything interesting is happening on the vol front with vol continuing to remain relatively suppressed.

Regarding the meeting for the ECB. I would expect the potential of witnessing the demand for puts to outstrip the demand for call buying, and potentially adding to some downside in the EUR/USD which over the last 3 months has been stuck in a range between 1.07-1.10.
Now observing the EURO, we witness something rather interesting happening with the term structure. We are only just starting to see widening until further out the maturity of the term structure. This implies that there is a macro risk that is being priced into the EURO, and thus traders are cautious about the outlook. This is driven by low expectations for growth, low productivity, and geopolitical issues within the Red Sea that seem more likely to hurt the EU compared to the US. Once again supporting the thesis that we should observe weakness in the EURO overall.

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey will open the week amid expectations for slowing at large manufacturers. Slowing is expected for US nonfarm payroll growth on Friday to a still strong 200,000 in March from 275,000 in February; wage pressures are also seen slowing but still overheated. Likewise, slowing is expected for Canadian employment on Friday to a very solid 25,000 from February’s 40,700.

Inflation data from Europe will be Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s focus, first from German where some cooling is expected for March then from the Eurozone as a whole where only marginal cooling is the call, to 2.5 from 2.6 percent overall and to 3.0 from 3.1 percent for the narrow core.

Policy news will include the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey on Monday and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday

Evonoday

[Mtl JP]

GVI 9:18 “Traders can use client sentiment to either follow the trend or take a contrarian stance.”
–
with what confidence level would a trader either follow IG’s clients trend or take a contrarian stance ?

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Week Ahead

Intervention or no intervention – that is the question !

If we just ignore it, this is what it is right now :

Support at 150.500 – has to Hold for move Up

Resistance at 152.000

In my opinion, this is the perfect set up for targeting 155.000

I don’t trade opinions…even my own – but I see it only Up as it is.

[Author]

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