[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0765
–
ECB on Thursday with its policy decision.
Odds are HIGH that lagarde and her gang will NOT do anything.
May not as high as this weeks odds but odds of a pre-June cut are also high.

gaming ECB is like a kitten playing with a teenage mouse (ie not a life/death situation)

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:22 re GAP
–
EURO 1.0774 = GAP Poof !

I not like. I LOVE ! gaps plays
hope you kitching-ed

[SF Monedge]

I like the sell side of Eur approaching 0800 here and + a bit 78/89

[GVI Forex]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – DOES B STAND FOR BUBBLE? IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY THAT.

As I have been saying it is hard to trust technical levels to be exact *(although they are clear on this chart) so I prefer to look at 60000-65000-70000

Currently, it is testing sub-65000 but would need to decisively break below 60000 to suggest air is really leaking from a bubble.

[GVI Forex]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART

If you are looking for the source behind the EURUSD bounce look at this one-hour chart (EURUSD up while GBPUSD lagged).

SO far EURGBP is hesitating just below .8570-80

[GVI Forex]

Next economic data focus is on JOLTS job openings in about an hour

See our economic calendar

US 10-year tested 4.40% (last 4.389%)

[GVI Forex]

US 10 year almost up to 4.40% (4.399%)

Stocks feeling the heat, BTC down, Gold is holding up, and waiting for FX to wake up.

[Swiss Frank]

JP re CHF (thanks for asking) I think in the short term against the usd it’s closer to the end than the beginning, as in 9150-9250 should see it run out of gas to some degree. Longer term (months) I have no problem with seeing it back to 1.0000 ish.

I see a smoother path forward for a weaker CHF against the crosses.

The thing that may potentially slow its weakness is some are saying we should be enetering a period of high volatility over the next 1-2 months which maybe could see some safe haven flows into the CHF.

I’m not a huge fan of posting trades after the fact (I’ve been outside busy lately) but last week I switched out of short chf positions and am currently only short eur/usd. Reason being thinking being closer to the end than the beginning (short term) maybe its a prudent risk reward move…. Maybe…

[GVI Forex]

US yields ticking higher

[Mtl JP]

on deck today
–
10:00 – U.S. manufacturing, shipments and orders

10:00 – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February

12:00 – Williams in moderated discussion at Economic Club of New York

12:05 – Mester speaks to Cleveland Association for Business Economics and Team NEO Luncheon

1:30 – Daly in Southern Nevada Fireside Chat

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Monthly

This is NOT a Bitcoin, Nvidia or Gold…this is Yen (not Sparta definitely 😀

Mind you, all time High of Modern times is at 160.360

It is becoming kind of hilarious….a Small correction is like 1000 pips lower, and a decent one…well…how about 2.500 pips .

Trading it on anything bigger than half an hour chart takes some Cojones 😀

[Mtl JP]

WSJ – TOP NEWS & ALERTS
–
Inflation Victory Is Proving Elusive, Challenging Central Banks and Markets
Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rose to 2.5% in February
Bank of Japan Tankan Survey Shows Mixed Results Amid Rate-Hike Speculation

about the only one thing I reasonably sure about is BoJ’s rate hike: not going to happen anytime soon (i.e few months at least)

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly

Let’s talk BIG….1.06000 / 1.06100 is all we need to look at

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Daily

Interesting…Silly shows some nice patterns and behaves with the trend lines…who would think….

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:20 the next posipis will come from correctly assessing and betting on fading or not of rate cut optimism

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 15 MIN CHART

It is only a 20 pip range so far, too tight to last. Price action is typical for the start of a quarter, especially this one after a 4 day weekend, as the market re-liquifies.

As the chart shows, 2 red AT lines drawn off the low indicate a shift in risk to the upside that has seen a move up but faces resistance at 1.0744.

Not seen on this chart, the gap in price after the ISM report yesterday is to 1.0772. The key target on the downside remains at 1.0694.

Note while steadying vs the dollar, EUR is trading soft on some of its crosses (e.g. eurgbp, eurcad)

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 9085
–
Frank think it has more breath ? TIA

[GVI Forex]

It feels more like the start of a new year than the start of the second quarter.

The key focus will be on US data and how the bond market reacts.

Powell speaks tomorrow.

USDJPY remains in a 151-152 range, betterment bid in the upper half. I read that any intervention should it occur would target a 5 yen drop. I also read that the effects of intervention would be short-lived.

EURUSD stays soft but tight range, suggests a cautious approach awaiting key data from mid-week on

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD targeting 1.0694 if it stays below 1.0750-72

[GVI Forex]

Economic calendar

TUE: RBA Minutes (Mar), CNB Minutes (Mar), South Korean CPI (Mar), EZ/UK Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), German Prelim CPI (Mar), US Non-Durable Goods R (Feb), Chilean Central Bank Announcement

See full detailed previews

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