[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

Today marks the start of a new week, a new month, a new quarter and a new set of data to get investors going. Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index landed when most markets were closed, making this the first real chance to digest the numbers.

Morning Bid: Manufacturing kicks off jobs-packed week

[GVI Forex]

Swiss Frank, thanks gif that very informative April 1, 2024 at 6:57 am update. This type of post is what makes traders come back to our forum as you never know when one will light a bulb in your head as it makes sense of the price action.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD ONE-HOUR CHART – APRIL FOOLS DAY?

XAUUSD’s relentless rise is no joke as it continues to move into uncharted record-high territory. This makes looking for resistance pure guesswork so use the most recent high (2265) as the closest key level.

The two blue AT lines off the high raise a risk of a pause but only one that might be confirmed if XAUUSD moves below 2250.

On the downside, look for support as long as it trades above 2200-20, a stronger bid should 2250 becomes support.

[Swiss Frank]

Holiday almost everywhere in EU markets today. Here’s the monthly outlook from Alpha Picks for EUR/USD. Apologies if taking up too much space…

The ECB will be meeting on April 11th, and this should play out interestingly. Looking at the EURO on the 1 month time frame is where we will begin. We have observed massive demand for put buying relative to calls, and I do believe that this will continue to be the case into the ECB meeting as the market starts to anticipate a much more dovish ECB relative to the FED. This should start to put some downside on the EUR/USD. Hence, there is anticipation for this sideways chop in EUR/USD spot to start to fade, and for the EUR to move lower relative to USD. Implied vol on the one month has started to rise with a 40bps rise in implied vol now sitting at 5.40 vols.

Looking at the EUR/USD 1m Risk Reversal 25 delta, we are now witnessing rollover. Currently, we are seeing more buying of puts than calls. However, since COVID the overall level is relatively in line with where the options activity has been. Looking at the implied vol. this is also relatively low, and it does not appear that anything interesting is happening on the vol front with vol continuing to remain relatively suppressed.

Regarding the meeting for the ECB. I would expect the potential of witnessing the demand for puts to outstrip the demand for call buying, and potentially adding to some downside in the EUR/USD which over the last 3 months has been stuck in a range between 1.07-1.10.
Now observing the EURO, we witness something rather interesting happening with the term structure. We are only just starting to see widening until further out the maturity of the term structure. This implies that there is a macro risk that is being priced into the EURO, and thus traders are cautious about the outlook. This is driven by low expectations for growth, low productivity, and geopolitical issues within the Red Sea that seem more likely to hurt the EU compared to the US. Once again supporting the thesis that we should observe weakness in the EURO overall.

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey will open the week amid expectations for slowing at large manufacturers. Slowing is expected for US nonfarm payroll growth on Friday to a still strong 200,000 in March from 275,000 in February; wage pressures are also seen slowing but still overheated. Likewise, slowing is expected for Canadian employment on Friday to a very solid 25,000 from February’s 40,700.

Inflation data from Europe will be Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s focus, first from German where some cooling is expected for March then from the Eurozone as a whole where only marginal cooling is the call, to 2.5 from 2.6 percent overall and to 3.0 from 3.1 percent for the narrow core.

Policy news will include the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey on Monday and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday

Evonoday

[Mtl JP]

GVI 9:18 “Traders can use client sentiment to either follow the trend or take a contrarian stance.”
–
with what confidence level would a trader either follow IG’s clients trend or take a contrarian stance ?

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Week Ahead

Intervention or no intervention – that is the question !

If we just ignore it, this is what it is right now :

Support at 150.500 – has to Hold for move Up

Resistance at 152.000

In my opinion, this is the perfect set up for targeting 155.000

I don’t trade opinions…even my own – but I see it only Up as it is.

[GVI Forex]

Client Sentiment shows the percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently either long or short. If the majority sentiment is long a given market, then those clients expect the price to rise; if the sentiment is short, then they expect it to fall.

Traders can use client sentiment to either follow the trend or take a contrarian stance.

*All data is taken at 10:00pm ET on the Wednesday prior to send date

[Belgrade Bobby]

Time to trash the EUR 😀

[Mtl JP]

March 31
Bulgaria and Romania join the Schengen area of the European Eunion.

[Masha]

Happy Easter! Our Global-view team wishes you a joyful Easter filled with love and happiness!

[GVI Forex]

USDX DAILY CHART

WITH EUR 57.6% OF USDX IT PAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CHART AS A SEMI PROXY FOR THE EURUSD

kEY LEVEL ON THE CHART IS JUST ABOVE 1.05, MAKING THIS THE PIVOTAL AREA GOING FORWARD.

[GVI Forex]

BTC 4-HOUR CHart

Let’s look at BTC as it trades over the weekend.

The consolidation range is clear as shown on the chart

70000 continues to be a focal point and will ultimately set the tone with its record high looming above.

Below 68335 would be needed to postpone the risk.

[SF Monedge]

Re TFT and others like it – Had a millennial friend who treated it like a video game.  Can’t trade but thinks he can, bitcoin will erase the US Dollar by end of 2030, little ears for professionals who have been around a while, won’t shut up about it.  Message to novices out there…this isn’t a game.  Use your head a bit better and it might turn out ok.

[GVI Forex]

Another Prop Firm Collapse! – The Funded Trader Shuts Down.

Rumors have been swirling through the prop industry for weeks the TFT has been in trouble. N ow it seems that another one has shut down.

See this video explaining the situation and more from Lux Trading Firm (if the video shuts off because of the forum refresh, click on it again and move the video to the spot you left off). It is worth viewing.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – New record high

XAUUSD is now trading uncharted territory where there is a void on the upside. This makes the most recent high the closest key resistance.

On the downside, expect support as long as 2200 holds, stronger if 2222 becomes support.

[Mtl JP]

powell
–
bottom line: not seeing cut soon; economy running strong

it looks like jerome is going to be looking at incoming labor numbers

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4 hour chart – Intervention of not?

Range is very clear 151.00-151.97 but next week is a new ball game.

There seems no compelling reason to intervene as verbal intervention has so far cooled threat but noit negated the threat to 152 and higher.

If they are serious about squeezing the USDJPY longs, then breaks of 151.00/0/trendline/150.26 (and 150.00) would be needed.

[GVI Forex]

WASHINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) – The latest U.S. inflation data is “along the lines of what we would like to see,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday in comments that appeared to keep the central bank’s baseline for interest rate cuts this year intact.

US February inflation data ‘along the lines’ of what Fed wants, Powell says

[SF Monedge]

My belief is the data supports the Fed sitting tight where they are on rates still.  And so depending on what transpires over the next 60 days they may not cut in June.

[Author]

Posts