[Mtl JP]

jerome claims he n the committee are dealing with two-sided risk

discussing the topic makes his stutter

[Mtl JP]

jerome states on one hand, that job salaries are coming into alignment (i.e. not going thru the roof),
on the other hand states that employers are still having hard time finding / hiring labor

with that kind of confusion …

[Mtl JP]

players’ job is not to agree or dis-agree with the “correctness” or “expertise” but to game the player collective’s reaction to the yakkitty-yak

[GVI Forex]

I posted this yesterday and it was like deja vu today.

Lesson: Looking for divergence

US bond yields rose sharply earlier to 4.40% (1o year) but the USD did not come close to retesting intra-day highs.

When yields backed off the highs, usd backed off as well.

[SF Monedge]

I’m just taking the overshoot as JP mentioned earlier.   I’m buying Sterling to go with the flow and pick away at it while entering a sell Euro to sit on headed into Powell, who will just verify AGAIN that it is higher for longer with the rates.  Think that might affect Dxy after they run out of gas reacting to the data earlier?  Inevitably one might think.

[SF Monedge]

Short EurUsd light on the 104.40 Dxy bounce, a bit on the risky side, no problem bailing if necessary.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.079i8 (after slight 1.0810 R overshoot)

Is it euro enthusiasts quelling their enthusiasm OR dlr enthusiasts gaming powell fear of sticki inflation ?

I submit it is not time for filosophicala analysis, rather reactionary sharp shooting trading

[GVI Forex]

ISM services miss on the downside… see our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0788
–
puppy is negating earlier dump
Res 1.08 / 1.0810-ish

ECB suits continue making june cut noises

12:10 – powell = today’s anxiety / trade opp source . Free choice which.

[GVI Forex]

EURJPY last 164386

See my April 3, 2024 at 1:28 pm path of least resistance post.(EURUSD and USDJPY are both up).

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR Chart

Backing away from a new 2288 high. Supports at 2250 and 2228 .

NoA reiterated its 2024 price target at 2400 (I am only the messenger)

[GVI Forex]

US 10 YEAR AT 4.409&

[SF Monedge]

Still on the buy side of AudCad from low 8810-20 area, see Aud having legs overall for now unless something dramatic develops.  Perhaps a sudden drop but not enough to change the equation.

[SF Monedge]

Correction – 112.325

[SF Monedge]

As a proxy, entering the sell side of Singapore Dollar vs Yen (Sgd/Jpy) here 132.50 due to nominal margin/differential exposure vs other pairs .  Can afford to sit on it due to the nominal exposure.

[GVI Forex]

US yields up after string ADP report – 10 year at 4.40% again

[GVI Forex]

EURHPY 4 HOUR CHART

The market is so far choosing the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.

This is seeing both EURUSD and USDKPY both bid, the latter sees the 151.97 (and BoJ threat) looking while the latter is staying below 1.08 (upside limited while below it)

See the chart for EURJPY levels

Nice call by MOInedge on short JPY vs all

[GVI Forex]

This is what is looked at for Fed rate cut expectations

CME Fed Watch Tool

[Mtl JP]

Not of any s/t market playability, too bad:
–
wsj – Janet Yellen Missed the First ‘China Shock.’ Can She Stop the Second?
The Treasury secretary heads to China this week with a tough economic message as the Biden administration moves toward raising tariffs.

[Mtl JP]

There is probably (65% odds) still a load of june rate cut enthusiasts.

Players are pricing higher odds of July cut, although not a 100% certainty.

Earlier 4 cuts player enthusiasm appears to be gaining traction for 3 cuts by end of 2024.

Three 2024 cuts mantra has yet to be confirmed by jerome – wanna-be master of ambivalence – himself

[Author]

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