[GVI Forex]

Sometimes there are days 1 + 1 = 3

These are the days not to be stubborn and/or be patient if you are not going with the flow.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0853
–
technically, holding 1.08 – 1.0850 range
degree of conviction is about to manifest self (low – med – high)

ECB cutting rate this week would NOT be a surprise. Lagarde & Co appear to have learned vascillation tactic from FED gang
good luck

[GVI Forex]

BOBBY POSTED THIS EURUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IN OUR BLOG AND IT SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. WORTH A READ

EURUSD Week Ahead – 07/04/24 Technical Outlook

[SF Monedge]

My colleagues believe 10yr futures will move sideways/higher until May 31 (steady to lower rates).

[SF Monedge]

I think UsdChf likely pauses here around 9060 without some surprise.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw kashkari is on yak deck later this evening

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.95
–
with nothing of substance on the econ calendar todahy players have room to argue things out (i.e. consolidate)

the “better qualified” individuals are suggesting ambivalent things about alleged rate cuts with a bottom line attempt at maybe not quiet three cuts as “feasable” this year.

with 10-yr yield nearing 4.5% dlrx is rather subdued in its response.

In his friday yak jerome alluded to details about labor he & gang are watching such as turfing notices and surveys around jobs intentions – two rays of good hope from the FED’s point of view. The CPI numbers that are expected this week appear to be another ray of hope for the FED as “being on the right track” that earlier numbers were but a “bump”

Degenerate traders on the other hand would likely savage rates and ccies on upside surprise releases.

[GVI Forex]

Notice how USD downside was more sensitive to when yields backed off (last 4.43% vs high at 4.465%), which gave a clue that it was trading bid in an offered market.

[SF Monedge]

Since the relationship with currencies to US stocks matters, just a note stocks are firmly in a pull back cycle and I don’t see any way that Dow trades above 392 today unless something dramatic happens.  Yields up.  Dow futures holding 39170 so it appears the shorter term cycle is the market wanting to hold stocks against the more significant sell cycle in the index.   DXY is holding the offer overall so it would take something of weight to move it over 104.60 today in my opinion.

[GVI Forex]

US yields continue to move higher but cautious fx so far although USDJPY remains within spitting distance of 151.97.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 30 min

Current Playing field

[GVI Forex]

THIS ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG EXPLAINS WHAT IT MEANS WHEN A CURRENCY FEELS BID IN AN OFFERED MARKET

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[GVI Forex]

eurusd 4 hour chart – glass half full or empty of looking bid in an offered market?

.

Given the strong US jobs report and rise in US yieldsw today it would seem more logical for EURUSD to be trading 1.07xx rather than 1.08xx’

It is Monday though and will see if this is a matter of looking bid in an offered market. A break of 1.0791 would be needed to confirm this is the case.

Key levels are on this chart.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 1 HOUR – BID BUT WARY OF INTERVENTION

All that matters in USDJPY is the 151.97 (suggests 152) and what night trigger intervention. It certainly isn’t a disorderly market in current conditions that would trigger intervention so it would have to be a level that is considered the point of pain.

Rising US bond yields (4.45% 10-year yield so far capping it) would normally see USDJPY if it wasn’t for the intervention threat.

Looking at this chart, there are layers of support all the way to 150.80 under normal conditions.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee (Reuters)

European markets are gearing up for a steady start to the week with the ECB widely expected to stand pat on rates but possibly hint at when rate cuts would likely begin, while investors will parse through the latest reading of the U.S. inflation report.

Morning Bid: Action-packed week awaits nervy markets

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – EXHAUSTION HIGH?

I won’t even dare to suggest a high is in although the spike t0 2354 suggests those still short threw in the towel.

With the key support not until 2302, look for 2330 to be a potential support that needs to hold to keep a bid targeting the high.

For those trading XAUUSD intra-day, revert to shorter time frames.

[GVI Forex]

BTC DAILY CHART – BACK ABOVE 70K

BTC is playing some catchup with the surge in gold and has moved back above 70000.

Resistance levels are clear as is 70000 the level that needs to hold to keep the record high at ris.

[GVI Forex]

Head scratcher start to the week

US yields up. Markets scaling back Fed rate cut expectations.

Gold up (another record)

BTC edging closer to 70k again

Oil dips

USD so far showing little reaction to higher yields although USDJPY edging closer to but still below the 151.97 high but wary of the BoJ.

[GVI Forex]

US yields higher

10 year 4.434%

[Mtl JP]

Friday attempt at infecting peasants
–
Bowman says inflation still too high to justify Fed rate cuts
“we are still not yet at the point”

Barkin said Fed would be ‘smart’ to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation
“No one wants inflation to reemerge,” and something about FEDs having “time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down,” (the clouds barkin refers to is “the strong labor market”

—
In my op in a relevant commentary to the two headlines above and jerome’s early Friday chitchat,
Tyler has posted an interesting piece and a reminder on his website on Sunday: “People Are Not Inflation Idiots” by Jeffrey A. Tucker

People Are Not Inflation Idiots

“There’s something about employed intellectuals. When they are trashing popular wisdom and perceptions of regular people …

[Author]

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