Re : Inflation – isn’t it clear that politicians are playing in line with the public opinion ( at least on the surface and in wording) , and two types of public are in the play :
Your ordinary Joe , that suffers under the weight of increased prices for basic needs – he needs to hear that rates are going to go down, which for him means same as : Prices will go down….and that is a pure crap….better tomorrow…similar to religions offering it in the afterlife.
Second group is made of so called “experts” , and those are mostly mediocre , running on the wave of past performance and constant need for things to change every now and then…or ffs how they gonna be able to give interviews, be so clever and smile into the camera…and of course, most of them would like to be Loved by the public…so similar to politicians…
Reality is that Inflation is here to stay for unforeseeable period – even if all the reasons behind it are dealt with, some new ones are not only coming, but are promised – like electrical vehicles, ONLY…how is that going to reflect on prices of transportation, logistics, and then spill over all the sectors of industry, trade, services…who’s gonna pay for that..Von der Layen , Biden, Chancellor Olaf Scholz …naaah…don’t think so…
Also, trying to base our expectations on those of the market players might only screw us up….
Watch your charts, your 6 and keep your head above the water and out of the box 😀
while waiting for one side to stomp over the other
some boredom relief : a Waffle Stomp – Joe Walsh
at thy discretion
JP – The Fed cutting rates any time soon is amounting to a window into how confused people are, even analysts.
From Moody’s Analytics: “While inflation has fallen considerably from a peak of 9.1% notched during June 2022, it remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Additionally, when compared with January 2021, prices are up a stunning 17.6%.”
“The cost of necessities like food, gasoline, rent and child care remain far more expensive than they were just one year ago. Chronically high prices are forcing Americans to spend about $650 more per month than they did two years ago, according to a recent estimate from Moody’s Analytics.”
USDJPY 4 Hour Chart – Uptrend consolidating
150.00 is the bias-setting level going forward.
4-hour Levels are very clear
Sup: 148.92/149.52/149.82
Res: 140.65/150.88
Note, USDJPY tends to be most sensitive currency to moves in US bond yields
Scross down the forum to see USDJPY analysis from ForexCycle
EURUSD
From yesterday’s Week Ahead :
EURUSD Week Ahead
Resistances at : 1.07900 , 1.08350 and 1.09250
Supports at : 1.07400, 1.07200 and 1.06950
Pattern wise, Resistance at 1.07900 should Hold, and Down move should continue…
They came, they touched and they bumped ( 1.07894)
We need it to go through 1.07500 to confirm the pattern and continue down.
Let’s see how it’s played…
gooddy gooddy … just like the FED likes it:
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CNBC Daily Open: Fears over yet another hot inflation gauge
sofar quiete on the trading front
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Trump says truckers boycotting driving to New York City are great patriots
This article is worth trading as it covers the week ahead
Morning Bid: China markets look like they need another holiday
USDJPY Analysis: Uptrend Continues, Resistance and Support Levels
The USDJPY pair is currently within a rising price channel on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the pair remains in an uptrend from 145.89.
As long as the channel support holds, the upside move is likely to continue. A breakthrough of the 150.88 resistance level could potentially take the price towards the 151.90 resistance level.
On the downside, a breakdown below the channel support could bring the price to test the 149.52 support level. If the price breaks below this level, it would indicate that the upside move has already completed at 150.88, and the next downside target would be around the 147.50 area.
player sentiment heading into new week
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Just one of a number of a gathering of similar takes I have read over last few days about the market:
‘Peak Euphoria’ Warning Blares as Stress Vanishes on Wall Street
(Bloomberg)
…Fed officials seem sanguine about it all, and indicate that the next move is a cut, just further out. … “A hot CPI woke markets up to the fact that risks are two sided. But still, mindsets are hard to change, as most people anchor to recent history,” the firm’s team including Christopher Metli wrote in a note.
Technically, there a number of instruments in the “overbaught” territory. In itself not a strong sell signal, just a prescient one without a precise timing.
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