[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.39% -0.034 | 5:37:16 AM EDT
–

dimon’s letter not exactly kind to janet

[Mtl JP]

gaming time considerations
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msm is priming canadian dollar players for june cut
rtrs: Fed rate cut expectations for 2024 fall to lowest since October

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Support at 1.08550 & 1.08450

Resistance at 1.08650

Needs to take over 1.08650 to continue Up .

However, if supports give up, we are in for a Correction phase ( at least ).

Next 2.5h is crucial, as if it stays above 1.08600 till next bar, it will break Up.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART = UNCHARTERED WATERS

While the forex market treads water ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI report, XAUUSD has scored another record high, moving just above Friday’s high (2354) and again disappointing those trying to pick a top

As I noted yesterday, XAUUSD needed to hold above 2330 to keep the high at risk and the result has been a fresh run at the upside.

As I also noted, I had no interest in suggesting the high was in despite what looked like an exhaustion high on Friday. .

With that said, the new high is the only key resistance on a chart and 2350 becomes pivotal in setting the day tone. Only a move below 2336 would suggest the potential for a pause.

[GVI Forex]

WITH USDJPY HOVERING JUST BELOW 151.97 IT IS WORTH READING THIS BLOG ARTICLE AS IT IS STILL VALID

Trader Alert: Would I Intervene in USDJPY If I Was in I was in the BoJ’s Shoes?

[Mtl JP]

ye ss SSS ! lets see it:
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“U.S. ready to sanction Chinese banks if they aid Russia’s war machine” Yellen says
— cnbc

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURCHF

The pair is in clear Uptrend, and Swissy never looked so vulnerable.

CHF is hit even from the USD , and that is not it’s usual state of affairs.

Resistances come at : 0.98950 , 0.99150 and ultimately The Parity – 1.00000

Continue reading….

[GVI Forex]

Sometimes there are days 1 + 1 = 3

These are the days not to be stubborn and/or be patient if you are not going with the flow.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0853
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technically, holding 1.08 – 1.0850 range
degree of conviction is about to manifest self (low – med – high)

ECB cutting rate this week would NOT be a surprise. Lagarde & Co appear to have learned vascillation tactic from FED gang
good luck

[GVI Forex]

BOBBY POSTED THIS EURUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IN OUR BLOG AND IT SPEAKS FOR ITSELF. WORTH A READ

EURUSD Week Ahead – 07/04/24 Technical Outlook

[SF Monedge]

My colleagues believe 10yr futures will move sideways/higher until May 31 (steady to lower rates).

[SF Monedge]

I think UsdChf likely pauses here around 9060 without some surprise.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw kashkari is on yak deck later this evening

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.95
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with nothing of substance on the econ calendar todahy players have room to argue things out (i.e. consolidate)

the “better qualified” individuals are suggesting ambivalent things about alleged rate cuts with a bottom line attempt at maybe not quiet three cuts as “feasable” this year.

with 10-yr yield nearing 4.5% dlrx is rather subdued in its response.

In his friday yak jerome alluded to details about labor he & gang are watching such as turfing notices and surveys around jobs intentions – two rays of good hope from the FED’s point of view. The CPI numbers that are expected this week appear to be another ray of hope for the FED as “being on the right track” that earlier numbers were but a “bump”

Degenerate traders on the other hand would likely savage rates and ccies on upside surprise releases.

[GVI Forex]

Notice how USD downside was more sensitive to when yields backed off (last 4.43% vs high at 4.465%), which gave a clue that it was trading bid in an offered market.

[SF Monedge]

Since the relationship with currencies to US stocks matters, just a note stocks are firmly in a pull back cycle and I don’t see any way that Dow trades above 392 today unless something dramatic happens.  Yields up.  Dow futures holding 39170 so it appears the shorter term cycle is the market wanting to hold stocks against the more significant sell cycle in the index.   DXY is holding the offer overall so it would take something of weight to move it over 104.60 today in my opinion.

[GVI Forex]

US yields continue to move higher but cautious fx so far although USDJPY remains within spitting distance of 151.97.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 30 min

Current Playing field

[GVI Forex]

THIS ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG EXPLAINS WHAT IT MEANS WHEN A CURRENCY FEELS BID IN AN OFFERED MARKET

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[GVI Forex]

eurusd 4 hour chart – glass half full or empty of looking bid in an offered market?

.

Given the strong US jobs report and rise in US yieldsw today it would seem more logical for EURUSD to be trading 1.07xx rather than 1.08xx’

It is Monday though and will see if this is a matter of looking bid in an offered market. A break of 1.0791 would be needed to confirm this is the case.

Key levels are on this chart.

[Author]

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