[SF Monedge]

105.06.   Can’t edit in the forum.

[SF Monedge]

Hope I am not hogging the forum, trying to be of help.  My colleagues will be selling June USD futures if/when 105.36 is reached    (price at 05.06 when I was notified).  They tend to be position traders.

[SF Monedge]

Just to add one more.  I believe it to be irresponsible to simply allow an automated system to run unfiltered by human interaction.  Until AI can do your laundry for you unfettered you will absolutely watch $800 losses start to rack up when you turn on your PC over coffee at 4 in the morning lol.

[SF Monedge]

The one algorithm I designed based on the bands was jaw dropping good with the results.  One portfolio manager who traded with me every morning challenged me with the promise if I could beat him he would turn over 20% of his portfolio to me. He was from France and traded from his yacht for the most part.  I beat him badly lol.  Then came the day the caveat was he wanted intentional losses because his clients were using him to make losses as a tax write off.  I obviously just treated it as a gentlemen’s bet in the end lol.  You can’t make this stuff up .

[SF Monedge]

I tested almost every retail available automated systems.  Every single one starts adding up losses .inevitably.  I also designed and reverse engineered seemingly endless systems and indicators.  The best was an adaptation of Bollinger bands which made each of the bands and mid-line smoothed toa 20day average of the bands.  Was like clockwork.  Inevitably it was flawed like the rest.  It is why there is a legal/regulatory designation sthose who are “discretionary CTAs.”  It is important to monitor the portfolio and make human decisions and those are the best CTA’s unless you are running a high frequency platform in my experience.

[GVI Forex]

… and US yields are at new highs after the earlier post-PPI retracement (dp in yields) failed to follow through

[GVI Forex]

The way our newly redesigned site is set up, the Forex Forum is for dynamic, real-time trading-related updates while our blog is FILLED WITH insightful articles with trading insights you can incorporate into your daily trading.

HERE IS ONE THAT WORKED LIKE A TEXTBOOK AFTER AN EARLY SESSION CORRECTION STALLED AND THE DOLLAR IS NOW BACK WITH A BID.

Actionable Forex Trading Strategy When to Fade a Correction

 

[GVI Forex]

Power of 50

EURUSD ran some stops above 50 but failure to stay above it has it on its back foot again.

Test your emotional sentiment when it traded 1.0750+ vs. now sub—1.0750

[SF Monedge]

Regarding automated trading.  Wrote one that was 96% accurate.  Until it wasn’t.  It didn’t pay attention to fundamentals.

[GVI Forex]

Just in case post

Above EURUSD 1.0750

1.0763-65
1.0780
1.0798-00

[GVI Forex]

ECB press conference

[GVI Forex]

No surprise in ECB decision

US PPI next – mkt highly sensitive to any surprises

Then LaGarde

[Mtl JP]

well… Jay in his 10:28 talks about a personal predatory tactic of using what he perceives market achillies heel for skimming some $s

worth a re-read, let it sink in

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl – Right on spot !

Using different systems that I have developed over decades of real trading, I have tried of course to come to some automated one…never did.

Even with the simplest one, it was always that last touch – HUMAN – Professional touch.

All the algorithms that one can come with are missing quite a lot – you cannot calculate in, the last moment change of heart that comes from the experience ( some call it a Gut feeling, I call it knowledge hidden deep in subconscious of our mind ).

And even if AI scam will come alive one day , it will be as good as those that programmed it – if those programmers can be as good as we are in trading ( yeah, right ), I am not sure that they would spend life coding it…but trading…

So far, what I heard within the industry is that the best they came up is around 60% of success ….not bad if the Risk management would follow the suit…but it doesn’t….they still play it more like betting , then real trading.

[GVI Forex]

JP my developer told me he has programmed over 1000 automated trading programs and the only ones that had some success were those with some human intervention.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

It may seem like an over-reaction to an inflation miss of less than a tenth of a percentage point, but the heated March consumer price update has jolted markets into doubting any U.S. interest rate cut before the November election.

Morning Bid: Markets reel on Fed cut doubts, ECB up next

[Mtl JP]

automated programs
one example:
–
Knight Capital’s Algorithmic Fiasco
— Knight’s program ran out of control for about 45 minutes — which means the company ultimately lost $10 million for each minute the new software was running, cost the firm $440 million.

ya think it can’t / won’t happen again ?
rest assured there are folks hard at work making sure it does
(and they are part of nightmares to banking supervisors)

[GVI Forex]

USDX WEEKLY CHART – LOOKING FOR EURUSD CONFIRMATION

USDX is in breakout mode above 105.03 but looking for confirmation from a EURUSD break of 1.0692 (scroll down to see a EURUSD weekly chart)

The reason I say look for confirmation is explained in this blog article

What is the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and How You Can Use it to Trade

[Mtl JP]

automated programs
–
automated programs are
– lines of code
— subject to design AND coding errors and / or inefficiencies AND intellectual attack by other coding trader(s) / flush groups.
— still supervised by humans, still subject to nervousness, high excitablity; acute unease or apprehension because they still function under stress eminating from visuals of loss ranging from small to account evaporation dancing in their heads

[GVI Forex]

The next key event risk is the ECB decision in less than 3 hours. See this link in our blog for a detailed preview of the event.

ECB MEETING PREVIEW

[Author]

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