I am on record that the bond market is THE king
Looking at the prancing since last Fr’s reaction to CPI (notably most CB’s now singing from the same ‘dependant on incoming data’ page in the hymn book) – 4.15 to 4.3320 and current approx 4.20 off the peak suggests players would love to place directional bet BUT … are unsure currently.
Imo IF I had to go out on the limb I d say the next direction (for yield) will be prudent tentative down.
fwiw re today’s yakkers: both are voters (if it means anything)
9:30 ny
DLRx 104.19 (somewhat down a bit) / 10-yr 4.212 / euro 1.0780
observation: dlryen and us yield appear correlated
Looks like players are not done selling the dlr just yet
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13:15 – fed’s waller yaks – on dlr’s int’l role (hello janet, hello putin)
19:00 – bostics yaks on outlook and policy (yeah !, lol)
interest policy at fault and to blame ?
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* For the whole of 2023, Japan’s nominal GDP grew 5.7% over 2023 to come in at 591.48 trillion yen, or $4.2 trillion based on the average exchange rate in 2023.
* Germany on the other hand, saw its nominal GDP grow 6.3% to reach 4.12 trillion euros, or $4.46 trillion based on last year’s average exchange rate.
Japan is no longer the world’s third-largest economy as it slips into recession
EURUSD
After reaching the new low yesterday, another sideways to Up formation is in the creation.
Immediate support is at 1.07250/300
It is trying to reach 1.07650 , and it should, prior to the next leg down.
Albeit, we can see some brief tests of 1.07000 area, but we need that Uptick to be done , for the downtrend to continue in full force.
USDJPY 1-hour chart
JPY is the strongest currency today.
After the sharp spike on US CPI, USDJPY is currently retracing.
With no supports (red lines) until 149.23,
FIBO levels: Check out our Fibonnaci calculator
50% = 150.055 (broken)
61.8% = 149.86
76.4% = 149.58
So, as long as 149,86 holds, the focus stays on 150, which will dictate the tone for this pair.
EURUSD Analysis: Downtrend Continues, Resistance and Downside Targets
The EURUSD pair remains below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating the continuation of the downtrend from 1.1139.
As long as the price remains below the falling trend line, it is likely that the downside move will persist. The next target area for the pair would be around 1.0670, followed by 1.0600.
The initial resistance level is located at 1.0750. A breakthrough above this level would suggest a consolidation phase for the downtrend is underway. In such a scenario, the price could retest the 1.0805 resistance level. If this level is surpassed, it may trigger further upside movement towards the falling trend line.
It is important to note that only a break above the trend line resistance would indicate the completion of the downtrend.
In summary, the EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend, with the price staying below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. Downside targets have been identified, while resistance levels have also been highlighted for potential retracements. The completion of the downtrend would require a significant break above the trend line resistance.
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