[Mtl JP]

lets see …
–
Ukraine war: UK and US metal ban, China sells military parts to Moscow, Russian influence network

especially how the ban on russian metals will work out:
“The new prohibitions will “continue to target the revenue Russia can earn” to fund its military operation in Ukraine – according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s press release

[Mtl JP]

GVI 08:17 / the week-end is still young.
Did you bag the $100 bux on short Gold ?
–
curtesy cnn this sat 13th morning:
– Revolutionary Guards seized the vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, state media reported
– US expects Iran to carry out direct attack on Israel, sources say, as Biden warns ‘don’t’
– What an Iranian attack on Israel would mean for the US, according to retired general (hahaha)

[GVI Forex]

xAUUSD 4 HIUR CHART – NEW HIGH BUT THEN….

This is the second Friday that gold traders have seen a bloodbath, the last time trying to pick a top and this time sseeing a 4% drop after setting another record high.

The price action is not fatal to this relentless bull run, dependent on 2318 holding as support to keep the retreat from turning into a full-scale retracement.

What has changed is that moves up in XAUUSD will nort run into stops unless a new high is made.

[GVI Forex]

Newsquawk Week Ahead 15-19th April: Previewing US and UK retail sales, UK, NZ, Canada and Japan inflation, China activity data and PBoC MLF

Newsquawk Week Ahead 15-19th April: Full previews and detailed analysis

[Mtl JP]

off cnbc f/page
–
all sorts of summary headlines about FED and inflation and cuts and israel/iran and crude and so on

BUT

I like this one best
“IRS’ criminal investigation chief says agency prepared for crypto tax crimes: CNBC Crypto World”
IF true

his name for future reference: Guy Ficco, criminal investigation chief at the Internal Revenue Service

[GVI Forex]

I was chatting with JP earlier who said gold could fall 30-50 bucks. Well, he was wrong. It fell almost $100 from its high.

No matket was immune from
liquidations today (BTC -4.5%)

[Mtl JP]

for the just for laughs festival
–
Ex-Fed chair Ben Bernanke finds ‘significant shortcomings’ in Bank of England’s economic forecasting
LONDON (AP) — A review of the Bank of England’s economic forecasting that was published Friday and undertaken by Ben Bernanke, the former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, has found “significant shortcomings” that should be addressed to better inform future interest rate decisions.

Following widespread criticism about the Bank of England’s forecasts, Bernanke was tasked last year to review the forecasting models.

Though noting that all central banks have had problems over the past few years as a result of a series of economic shocks, notably the coronavirus pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis heightened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bernanke said the Bank of England’s issues were made worse by out-of-date software that had not been properly maintained.

The review said that “insufficient resources have been devoted to ensuring that the software and models underlying the forecast are adequately maintained.” … blablabla

[Mtl JP]

ON THE OTHER hand … what if stocks are puking on
–
“Betting markets see Biden’s re-election as likelier than a Trump win for first time in 6 months” – MarketWatch

[Mtl JP]

but DLRx is only at 105.70
go figure

[Mtl JP]

msm claims it’ s on “fears” of Iran/Israel

[GVI Forex]

Stocks getting hit.

[SF Monedge]

I will play it over and over lol.  Just when you think you know everything there is something to learn.

[Swiss Frank]

Glad you liked it SF. These guys sometimes get a little deep into the geo political but this particular episode I thought they did a really good job of transitioning from the geopolitical to the macro case to cash flow….

[SF Monedge]

Frank, thank you, I had to pause it and think a bit.  I suggest everyone click Frank’s link…

[GVI Forex]

Geopolitics: Chatter that an Iranian attack will happen over the weekend (rumors were that there was one today)) === XAUUSD is above 2400

[GVI Forex]

Back to funnymentals + geopolitical risks remain ahead of the weekend

U of M 1 and 5-year inflation expectations boith rise to 3.1 and 3.0% respectively, highest since Nov 2023

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.72
–
one would have to be somehow handicapped not to see the DLR romping and rampaging accorss the boad (except maybe vs the yen)

as players are likely gaming a few energy vectors:
– goodly yield spread
— eyeballing and anxiously re-pricing FED gang miscalutations about inflation bumps
— GOLD continues to look uP (i.e. good) as is energy in form of oil

some thanks has to go to wild media headlines about harsh diplomacy between Israel and Iran for at least some portion of players running into dlrs thinking “haven”.

on deck
10:00 – U o M sentiment and U o M 1yr inflation
13:00 – schmid yaks about “econ Outlook”
14:30 – bostic yaks about housing
15:30 – daly chitchats at fireside

earlier this morn collins prognosticateg that she sees no urgency to cut rates (and eyeballs two cuts in 2024)

I am biased BoD DLRx (and some dlr crosses)

[Ab hk]

When there are no stops on the upside, there must be many stops on the downside

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1h

As you can see from the chart, we had a second leg down today, so one prolonged move.

We need to rebound to at least 1.06850 and even 1.07050 , and still will be in Down mode.

Support comes at 1.06150.

Keep in mind that it is Friday, so trading interest is fading fast.

I am going to prepare some rules and tips on how to follow my trades /ideas over this weekend.

Probably will write the whole article, so everyone can go slowly over it and be ready for things to come J

I have to do lots of accounting for my wife (her company) , and if I don’t …well you know how it goes

I’ll be around later tonight as well…

[Swiss Frank]

A slightly longer view of the eur/jpy charyt will show a break below the trendline that came off the lows from Dec 7, 2023 that came in today around 163.00.

If you like macro explanations of why you can check out this podcast that talks about a tweek in jpy management policy between the BoJ and MoF. JPY talk starts around 28 minutes…

Cognitive Dissidents #190 Weekly Update: 47 Crises in 17 Years
https://www.cognitive.investments/podcast

[Author]

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