[GVI Forex]

GBPJPY 1 HOUR CHART – PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

arket following the path of least resistance selling JPY, which is on its crosses where there is less chance of intervention.

GBP (along with AUD) has been the outperformer so far today (note EURGBP is lower as well)

The key level is clear at 192.92

Straight line move-up today means you need to go to shorter time frame charts to find support levels.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART- UNCHARTERED WATERS

USDJPY TRADING TO ANOTHER 34-YEAR HIGH JUST BELOW 154… AS I NOTED ON THE BREAK OF 152, THE NEXT POTENTIAL BOJLINE IN THE SAND WAS 155. THIS SUGGESTS 154-155, SHOULD IT TRADE, WOULD BE A NERVOUS ZONE

NOTE JPY WEAKNESS ON ITS CROSSES GIVING A BOD TO USDJPY.

USDJPY LIKELY KEEPS ITS BID IF IT CAN STAY ABOVE 153.50 (NOT SHOWN ON THIS CHART)

[GVI Forex]

Geopolitics trading 101

Markets price in the worst case and when it doesn’t materialize there is some relief.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Resistances at 1.06650 & 1.06850

Support at 1.06400 & 1.06200

Before it breaks on either side, and taking into account geopolitical situation right now I am going to stay away from trying to call some larger moves.

Going solely Intraday – right now trying for higher, but need a signal to confirm.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee

European shares look set to track Asia’s negative lead on Monday after a weekend dominated by news of escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of a wider regional conflict.

Morning Bid: Nervy markets await Israel’s response, Fed outlook

[Swiss Frank]

JP -> to the “can you see some investment opportunities?”

The binomial tree of ifs on that scenario is way too long. So, No.

Did you see the video of where the one drone hit in the middle of nowhere and made a hole in the sand the size of a small sandbox?

This is all just theater.

[michael Calif]

per last Thursday, our Option Profile still confirms a top in June Gold futures above 2400

[michael Calif]

our Option Profile has identified a tradeable Oil top for Sept Crude Oil futures betwe $83-$84

[michael Calif]

test

[michael Calif]

Hi All – we are the colleagues at gtwo3 often referenced by Monedge.

We expect US Dollar futures to continue there overall move higher.

[michael Calif]

Hi All – we are the colleagus at gtwo3 often referenced by Monedge.

We expect US Dollar futures to continue moving higher.

[Mtl JP]

Consumers’ bad feelings about a good economy shouldn’t be ignored, Boston Fed President says
Published: April 14, 2024
In a conversation with MarketWatch, Susan Collins says she is wary of a negative self-fulfilling prophecy among pessimistic Americans

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – RELIEF?

The week is starting out with some relief that geopolitical risks have not escalated further. It is like trying to pick up the pieces after a hurricane or tsunami hits your town.

This leaves EURUSD consolidating where 1.0650 seems to be pivotal with no key nearby resistance.

Risk is still pointed down but would need to take out 1.0622 to build further momentum.

Given the one-way move down, use FIBO levels to give some order to the price action using our

Fibonacci Calculator

 

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

No better-than-mixed results are expected for Tuesday’s sweep of Chinese data headlined by an expected 4.9 percent year-over-year rate for first-quarter GDP. This would mark slight slowing from 5.2 percent in the first quarter. Monthly data on both industrial production and retail sales are also expected to slow.

The week opens with a busy Monday that will include Japanese machinery orders and Eurozone industrial production and will be highlighted by US retail sales which are expected to once again be solid. UK consumer prices expected to continue to fall in data for Wednesday…Econoday

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex]

No big gsps to start the week.

[GVI Forex]

[Mtl JP]

Swiss FRANK 11:26 // On this fresh new day …
The joker in the deck: IF the wardogs such as bibi, bolton or gantz prevail over biden who tells “Netanyahu Israel should not retaliate against Iran” and do retaliate AND widen a military conflict AND Iran shuts down its oil AND straight of hormuz AND starts to bomb israel’s own oil n gas production AND sea port terminals AND somehow hutis get to fly their puppies over saudi arabia … the US starts to rapidly see $100 – 150 – + oil AND ration diesel …

can you see some investment opportunities ?
and … it would not surprise me IF “authorities” would come out with furious commentaries about unjustified profits and even start to talk about clawbacks

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR  CHART – GAP OR NOT?

All eyes are on the opening of the new week to see if the geopolitical risk is going to see gaps or if the fallout will be contained.

XAUUSD,is coming off a rough Friday, where a new record high was followed by a $100 plunge.

Let’s look at both sides.

In case of a gap up, only a break of the record high would trigger fresh stops or buying.

On the downside, key support is at 2307-18, which suggests 2300-20 is probably the key zone to keep the downside risk contained.

[GVI Forex]

THIS ARTICLE IN A BLOG IS A MUST-READ AS IT EXPLAINS WHAT TO EXPECT JUST IN CASE DURING THIS GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS

Trading in War Conditions – Middle East Boiling</a>

[Swiss Frank]

My Take: I wouldn’t go with momentum / break away moves based on the Middle East ‘escalation’. I in fact wouldn’t even call it an escalation. If anything Iran is ‘playing ball’.
1. They pre-announced the response 48 hours in advance.
2. They lob in a few fly balls that knowing would be caught.
3. They did what they had to do that was the next softest response from no response.
4. If they wanted to RETALIATE, they clearly could have with a lot more anger.
5. IF there is a risk on any extension of the break aways (if there are) it would be with respect to the JPY and the MoF taking advantage of an already falling object…

[Author]

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