Thanks for this post by SF Monege. I just saw it on cable news so it is getting attention.
The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, chief strategist of Bank of America, wrote in a note to clients seen by CNBC, adding it’s “little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs, i.e. gold [at] $2077/oz.
Nikkei , March 2, 2024
Odds rise that Japan will lift negative interest rates in March
BOJ Gov. Ueda says outcome of annual wage talks this month will be pivotal
Speaking Thursday in Sao Paulo after a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers, BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda said the bank’s target of sustained 2% inflation is “not yet” in sight, and that “we will continue working to confirm” whether a virtuous cycle of wage and price growth is underway.
USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation Phase Continues, Key Levels to Monitor
Following a touch of the 0.8885 resistance level, USDCHF retraced from 0.8892 and has since been consolidating for the uptrend originating from 0.8550.
As long as the critical support level at 0.8742 remains intact, the uptrend is likely to resume. A breakthrough of the 0.8892 resistance level could propel the price towards the 0.9000 area.
Conversely, a breach below the 0.8742 support level would signal the completion of the upward movement at 0.8892. In such a scenario, the next target area would be around 0.8600.
From the Reuters article
Yet all the market chatter is about how the current wage round is going strongly and will likely lead the Bank of Japan to end negative rates in April, and unwind yield curve control.
Japan’s government is considering declaring an end to deflation, reports Kyodo news agency, which would be another marker on the road to tightening.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
It’s been a largely risk-on start to a week packed with central bank events and major data that will refine market wagers for when developed world interest rates will finally start falling.
Morning Bid: Looming event risk can’t stop Nikkei topping 40,000
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony beginning on Wednesday, and how he spins the outlook for rate cuts, will be the first of two major events in the US. The second will be Friday’s monthly employment report where slowing payroll growth together with cooling wage pressures – both favorable for rate cuts – are expected. Neither the Bank of Canada on Wednesday nor the European Central Bank on Thursday are expected to cut rates.
Tokyo consumer prices will be Tuesday’s highlight amid expectations for a pop higher in the data. Chinese consumer price data will be posted on Saturday, March 9 local time in what is expected to be another very benign report.
Updates from Germany and whether the country is sliding into recession will open on Wednesday with merchandise trade followed on Thursday with manufacturing orders and on Friday with industrial production. Declines are mostly expected for the latter reports.
Australian fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday is expected to show modest growth, while Canada’s labour force survey on Friday is expected, much like the consensus for Friday’s US report, to retrace unusual gains from January.
Econoday
EURGBP DAILY CHART
Higher red AT lines off the low show some risk on the upside but would need to get through the top of the current .8528-78 range to expose .8593-/8621
However, to confirm a break in trend, the key trendline (see chart) would need to be taken out.
Looking at shorter time frames, support at .8550-55 would need to hold to keep a bid.
The bounce in EURUGBP is one reason why EURUSD is finding some suppot.
Newsquawk Week Ahead: 4th – 8th March
Mon: Swiss CPI (Feb), South Korean GDP (Q4), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb),
Tue: US Primary Super Tuesday, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Feb), EZ/UK/US Services and Composite PMI Final (Feb), EZ PPI (Jan), US ISM Services PMI (Feb), South Korean CPI (Feb)
Wed: BoC Announcement, Australian GDP (Q4), German Trade Balance (Jan)
Thu: ECB Announcement, Japanese Wage Data, Chinese Trade Balance (Feb)
Fri: German Industrial Output and PPI (Jan), EZ GDP Revised (Q4), US Jobs Report (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Feb)
Sat: Chinese Inflation (Feb)
Sun: Japanese GDP (R)
Key event week with Fed Powell Powell testifying on Wed and the ECB meeting on Thurs so let’s take a look at the EURUSD
EURUSD AT Daily Chart
2 higher red support lines show a risk to the upside that requires a break of 1.0896 to give legs to the upside.
Whatever the case, 1.08 is the current bias setter, and only back below it would put the 1.0760 support in play again.
The Toll of The Bell
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NYT 02/03/2924 – Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds
The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s performance reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
With eight months left until the election, Mr. Biden’s support lags behind Donald Trump’s in the national survey of registered voters.
***
I maintain my opinion that joe will be POOF! by may, at latest by june.
EURUSD Daily – Week Ahead
Supports at : 1.08200 1.07950 1.07250
Resistances at : 1.08500 1.08900 1.09350 and 1.10850
Friday’s close indicates a probable move to the Resistances first. The pattern calls for a test of 1.08900.
I am going to be free to say that I can see 1.09350 reached already on Monday – that is what I see….and I don’t have a crystal ball 😀
For that to happen, EURUSD should not go bellow 1.08200 .
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