I’LL TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT ARGUMENT GIVEN DIFFERING ECB AND FRD RATE OUTLOOKS. YOU CAN SEE WHY I SAY THAT BY READING THIS ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG.
What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”
JP – April 19, 2024 at 8:45 am – Agree the climate is in the middle on the MEast escalation (for the moment) but they are crazy over there and one of my question is when the proxies and plants and perhaps even the Suez Canal being targeted sits on the radar. On Usd, I think if it starts holding intraday below 105.75 Dxy we see 105ish inevitably.
With stops wiped out on the dollar and risk off the side, there is little incentive to push for these lows (or highs such as in gold and oil). Leaves a Friday whipsawed market at the mercy of thin liquidity or book squaring or any stops on the other side.
As for EURUSD, edged through 1.0665 but still within 1.06-1.07.
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – TRAPPED FOR NOW?
When the dust settles on this latest geopolitical scare, the focus will likely shift back to interest rates where ECB OFFICIALS ARE signaling a cut in Hune and Fed officials ARE PUTTING RATE CUTS ON HOLD.
EURUSD, meanwhile, seems trapped between 1.06-1.07 (1.0650 = midpoint) but as long as it trades below 1,.0665, there is a limit on the upside.
With that said, I am not sure how much gas this market had in the tank after the whipsaws seen so far today,
I was accused by some of being too quick to declare The Third World War.
I still have the same feeling / opinion on the situation at hands…
Read it again – https://www.global-view.com/trading-in-war-conditions-middle-east-boiling/
Haven’t called for the WW3 – yet….
What Data ??? Look at the Economic Calendar first…you schmuck
EURUSD 4h Intraday
Supports at 1.06100 & 1.05900
Resistances at 1.06700, 1.06950 & 1.07400
Prefer the Downside right now, but watch for the Data today – Economic Calendar
Just an observation and not to be cute == because I sold both UsdJpy and UsdChf an hour before the sessions started and was in the thick of battle all the way down to the lows in both – the rebounds in price were aggressive and seemed like plunge protection team and CTA momentum algo’s both at work. I’ve been around it before.
XAUUSD 30 MINUTE CHART –
This chart is similar to what was seen in other markets after the knee jerk safe haven reaction did not follow through.
No new ground was broken on the upside (the record high is still 2431) and for today, there should be no stops until the high of the day, leaving XAUUSD floundering with supports shown on the chart bunched between 2354 and 2373.,
Yen futures are near the absolute lows tested several times this week. It would be a stretch in my opinion to justify the concept of the price to go lower under current conditions (Asian central banks verbally drawing boundary lines in the strength of their currencies-widespread volatility-geopolitical) so the futures sustaining a bid (sell side of Usd/Jpy) is clearly dominant. So we have highly likely seen the highs of the day in Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf over the prior 6 hours (4am PST right now). Buy side of oil and gold obviously. Usd/Chf sell side. Usd buy side elsewhere. I’ve been on the sell side since Asia in both pairs as I mentioned for two weeks. See zero reason to change that right now.
AS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY, TRADING IN A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS MARKET CAN BE CHALLENGING.
IN THIS REGARD, GIVEN TODAY’S EVENTS, WE HAVE UPDATED OUR BLOG POST, TRADING IN A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS, WITH AN ADDENDUM THAT IS WORTH READING
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