My overall sense is a bit like this – US tech stocks suffered the largest outflow on record in the week ending March 8 2024. Virtual confirmation that the Fed will drop govt lending rates in June, which speaks of a moderately slowing economy and inflation cooling due to demand slowing up. Demand for labor is slowing as well. Portfolio flows are reducing risk appetite and re-allocating into money market funds, gold, and other assets, including crypto and foreign exchange, so the areas where risk appetite is strong is adjusting gradually…economy should cool a bit in spots coming up.
This is one agonizing day if you trade EURUSD – it goes nowhere , for now…so sitting and watching as the grass grows…
I remember clearly the days when we could switch from USDDEM to DEMITL and just ride it….or from USDDEM long to USDFF short , holding Long USDDEM and take advantage from both sides.
Bah….yeah, those were the days 😀
BTC – I can see 50% retracement, and an ugly one – sharp and merciless.
But the problem is there is no enough data to support anything…
Problem with BTC is that people are seeing it as a currency , but it is really a merchandise of a kind…useless in my opinion- but who am I to judge it….millions of people are buying it like there is no tomorrow…without thinking that it is a Profit game and not lifelong investment.
Plus it is an open ended game , without firm rules and real backup of it’s value.
Someone makes and will make huge profits on it, but not the small fish…
BTC Daily Chart
When Bitcoin first was created I called it a Ponzi scheme. While I have not changed my mind about cryptos I would be an idiot to trade on that view given this rocket to the moon.
BTC rose about 4% to a new record high before backing off a touch but maintaining above the former record high (blue AT line).
By contrast, EURUSD has traded a 19 pip range so far today.
For the record, I do not trade BTC and have no intention of doing so.
Knez, there is a huge difference in strategy when trading anything bellow 30 min chart.
With 30 min, I follow what’s happening on 4h and Daily, and decide on entry depending are we actually moving Up or Down.
On smaller time frames ( and I find 3min the ideal one ) I don’t care where are we moving…just follow signals that I am getting . Of course, everything is smaller – Profit but also S/L .
I do it last two decades, so I have kind of feeling for it, but wouldn’t recommend it to anyone without huge experience – it can easily drive you crazy 😀
p.s. had to add that last sentence because of other visitors .
JP (1:13) –
Resting purchase Aud/Usd at 6594.
Resting purchase Usd/Jpy 146.24
Of interesting note: “All economic models are wrong, but some are useful,” Huw Pill concluded in a letter to lawmakers last June that laid out the limitations of prediction methods. “We should really be thinking of economic forecasts in terms of probability distributions,” said Stephen Millard, deputy director of Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who spent more than 26 years at the BoE.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
As noted last week, the break of 147.61 exposed 145.90 as the next target.
Another test just below 146.50 suggests this will be the pivotal level determining whether there will be a run at 145.90 and then 145.
As also noted (when USDJPY traded below 148), expect a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the March 18-19 BoJ meeting where there is a risk of the neverending story of a rate hike to bring Japan out of negative interest rates finally reaching a conclusion.
Range so far today 146.48-147.13
USDJPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
USDJPY’s downward momentum from 150.88 has extended to a low of 146.47, currently testing the support level at 145.89.
The initial resistance level is located at 147.25. As long as this resistance level remains intact, the downside move is likely to persist. A potential breakdown below the 145.89 support level might trigger further downside movement towards the 144.30 area.
On the upside, a decisive breakout above the resistance level at 147.25 would suggest that consolidation for the downtrend is underway, with the pair potentially encountering resistance around the 148.00 region.
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
So Japan isn’t in recession after all. Revisions now put economic growth at +0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, instead of -0.1%, so nullifying all the media lamentation about Japan’s contraction.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The US CPI on Tuesday is expected to remain overheated, at a 0.4 percent monthly rise overall and a 0.3 percent gain for the ex-food ex-energy core that would leave the latter at an expected 3.7 percent and nearly double the Federal Reserve’s target. Shelter costs will likely still be elevated, while other services like insurance premiums are seeing new hikes.
India’s CPI on Tuesday is expected to edge only 1 tenth lower to 5.0 percent with UK wages, also on Tuesday, likewise not expected to cool very much to 5.7 percent. Yet the UK’s monthly GDP report on Wednesday is expected to offer good news with a 0.2 percent gain.
US retail sales on Thursday are seen rebounding but not US industrial production on Friday where another flat result is the consensus. US consumer sentiment for early March will wind up the week’s calendar with what is expected to be a small gain on top of recent large gains.
Econoday
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