EURUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – WHY I LOVE THE AMAZING TRADER
Look at the bounce off AT support at 1.11918… this is no coincidence…why it is called “Amazing”… same support on a 15 minute chart
Case in point on market internals – Yields opened up strongly moments ago but immediately began pulling back which carried over to UsdJpy seeing a sudden, albeit small shot downhill. I would pay attention to those internals today, which are mixed with a slight tint to the downside in the pair. Again, however, the geopolitical element today should have stocks apprehensive and buoy USD unless it becomes dramatic and we see safe haven flows into CHF and such.
UsdJpy remains dominant on the buy side until 143.95 is compromised definitively. Why not just 143? This time, only this time, my cycle oriented system simply has that number this time. It is not stagnant. Entering the US day stock markets are apprehensive with the geopolitical turmoil and rightfully so. What could change that? Either some significant development or global markets simply revisiting the rate reduction effect in my view. Right now some components behind the scenes are negative Dollar so entirely possible. Yesterday they were decidedly positive but there was a delay in those orders filling through the market, which caused UsdJpy to run uphill overnight.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The unexpected downturn in U.S. household confidence this month and growing anxiety about jobs has spurred aggressive interest rate cut bets anew – dragging Treasury yields, the dollar and stock futures lower into Wednesday’s open.
Morning Bid: US confidence wobble weighs, China buoyed
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART
Let’s take a look at what technical traders are looking at.
Last week was an outside week and close to an outside week key reversal although I was told many years ago that it doesn’t work well with currencies.
I just took a look at a broker’s sentiment and it shows 50% of trader positions are short USDJPY.
So, looking at the COT report as well, short USDJPY positions no longer look extended so it might take a move outside of 140-145 to expose key levels.
In any case, this can still be considered a retracement phase with FIBOS for 161.93-139.58 shown below
EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE FROM MULTI-YEAR LOW
If trading EURUSD and GBPUSD, it pays to keep an eye on EURGBP, which is firmer today… weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows with a lag
This follows a bounce from ,8317, lowest level since early 2022.
Supports: .8339, .8317
Resistance: .8389 (this week’s high)
I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144
I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye
The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of the recent USDJPY support
Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record
177k contracts closed
Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week was its second highest level on record
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly market report that summarizes the holdings of participants in the US futures market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the report every Friday at 3:30 PM Eastern Time, and it covers the previous Tuesday’s trading day.
(AI Overview)
I have been scanning the news looking for reasons for the bounce in USDJPY back to 144
I have so far come up empty but this caught my eye
The COT (futures) report showed a huge drop in long positions, which explains some of USSDJPY support
Open interest fell -47%, fastest weekly pace on record
The -177k contracts closed
Open interest at 376.5k contracts in the prior week prior was its second highest level on record
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