BTC 4 HOUR CHART
I am not sure why I am even trying to analyze BTC as it feels more like a video game than a tradable instrument.
The bounce from a 15% retracement just set a new high above 70000 and then a quick 2000 pip retreat (about 3%)
So just look at the chart, needs to close and stay above its former high just broken while on the downside the 59081 low keeps the risk on the upside.
US Embassy in Moscow warning of imminent terror attack by Islamic State in Moscow against Jewish targets, with one being thwarted the other day. Hence my post yesterday where I noted I like having a trailing sell stop order in USD at all times at the mid-level point of any 100pip range the pair is currently in while price is above the mid point (50).
Believe the 10yr yield gapping down Monday to open at 41.64 was one of the 1st clues for the Usd for the week. Have been eyeballing the yield to fill the gap but no dice. Yield looks destined to fall to 39.60/70 with this activity, and if so that is the first area of contention followed by 39.69 and if compromised 37.80 in my view.
Long Usd vs Singapore Dollar and Mexican Peso filled almost at absolute bottom post data, will hold for fun. At times I trade crosses approaching data to stay out of wild activity. I’m riding a Gbp/Chf from Wednesday at 1.2225 and am likely to exit any time here, see it settling around 1.1250 around end of day likely. Light positions. Bailed last night on Aud and Gbp sells with a squeaky gain, didn’t look good at all, those were testers. Still see Usd pulling up a bit overall but obviously the dynamic has shifted to the sell side.
EURUSD
Supports : 1.09000, 1.08900 and 1.08400
Resistances : 1.09400 ad 1.09550
This is an Ancient Pattern called Jumping Rabbit ( can be a Squirrel or even a Wild Cat ), that indicates two possible scenarios : Jump high and stick to the Three or Jump, miss the branch and Fall quickly.
Now it depends on the Wise Man Data :
USD Unemployment Rate
USD Non Farm Payrolls
USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Economic Calendar
Following the Prophecy of the I-Know-It-all Guru and some analysis by Bleeding Edge Growth Fund & We Are So Tight , We Won’t Let Your Mother In Technology Fund , followed by behaviour of my Cat, we should see 1.10150 soon enough…
USDJPY DAILY CHART: MELTDOWN
Red AT support lines are being broken like Swiss cheese in a market likely thinned awaiting the US jobs report today.
With consolidation around 148 failing to last, the break of 147.61 leaves a void until 145.90.
On the upside, resistance is now between 147.61=148.00. Only back above 148 would deflect the risk
From the earlier Reuters article, suggests a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the BoJ meeting:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have begun ramping up their hawkish rhetoric and shown increasing confidence that the Japanese economy was moving towards the BOJ’s 2% inflation target, just ahead of the central bank’s March 18-19 policy meeting.
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