Reuters Mar 13, 2024 at 7:55 am GMT
ECB’s Villeroy: spring interest rate cut remains probable
PARIS, March 13 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will probably start cutting rates during the spring, between April and June 21, as the “victory” against inflation is in sight, …. Lagarde earlier this month hinted strongly that a long-awaited rate cut would be more likely to happen at the central bank’s meeting in early June, rather than in April
EURO 1.0930
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Big Japanese companies have agreed in full to union pay demands, a sign that workers could perhaps have pushed a bit harder, but also that wage momentum could encourage a historic policy shift by the Bank of Japan.
MORNING BID EUROPE-Japan wage deals put BOJ at centre stage
AUDUSD Analysis: Uptrend Continuation and Key Levels
AUDUSD continues its upward trajectory from 0.6477, with the recent retracement from 0.6667 likely representing a period of consolidation within the uptrend.
As long as the support at 0.6584 remains intact, the uptrend is anticipated to resume, potentially leading to a further ascent towards the 0.6750 region.
The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6640. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards testing the 0.6667 resistance. Subsequent breakthrough above 0.6667 would set the stage for a push towards 0.6750.
Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6584 support level would signal a potential completion of the upward movement at 0.6667, potentially resulting in a decline towards the 0.6500 level.
ya ya yeah
–
A focus at the next Fed meeting will be whether most officials continue to expect three cuts this year—or fewer
Inflation Uptick Unlikely to Derail Fed Cut Later This Year
we ll all be making a bet on that
UK GDP (WED): Expectations are for a 0.2% expansion in M/M GDP for January vs. the 0.1% contraction seen in December. The December release saw a 0.1% M/M contraction vs. the 0.2% expansion in November with the monthly data coinciding with the Q4 metrics which showed the UK entered into a technical recession at the end of 2024.
For the upcoming report, Pantheon Macro is of the view that the January data will show the UK “leaving last year’s minor recession firmly behind”. The consultancy adds that the 3.4% jump in January retail sales will explain “almost all” of the 0.2% M/M expansion it expects for the January data.
Furthermore, Pantheon is of the view that strength in the upcoming release will not be a “flash in the pan” given that PMI data has continued to recover since October with the February composite metric of 53.0 consistent with 0.25% Q/Q growth. From a policy perspective, a favourable release will likely put the UK on track to exceed the BoE’s mild 0.1% forecast for Q1 Q/Q GDP. However, it is unlikely to shift market pricing materially given the Bank’s ongoing focus on real wages and services inflation.
Reminder to the peasants
“‘Theirs not to reason why, / Theirs but to do and die’”
—
* Fund managers want the EU to issue debt to upgrade defense
* Underspending has left states vulnerable to Russian aggression
BBRG Bond Investors Are Lining Up to Fund the War Against Putin
Sadliest best line – imho : “A debt-funded EU defense program “would be a very welcome development — an Hamiltonian moment so to say,” said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, referring to the Treasury secretary who in 1790 helped turn the US into a federation by pooling the debt of various states. “I would not worry about there not being demand.”
ahead of fed blackout next week
–
Citadel’s Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn’t cut too quickly, citing big tailwinds supporting inflation
all that is missing is for players to come around to ken’s idea and re-price their eagerness for FED cutting
XAUUSD 4-hour Chart – Is the high in at 2195 for now?
Is XAUUSD set up for a correction?
Technicians will point to a wedge formed by trendlines on both sides.
I can only go by what AT shows me. When there are 3 lines, in this case blue, drawn off the high, it is often followed by an acceleration in the direction of the lines. In this case, it would be to the downside.
Watch the up trendline to see if it holds or can be broken.
us electioneering now under way
–
cnn’s oliver darcy thinks cnbc squawk box’s joe kernan reports to him:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/media/cnbc-trump-interview-lies/index.html
got myself some popcorn
JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid. And much money flow. Fascinating actually. I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.” So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two. If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible. What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow. But do not discount the larger picture. I do not know everything.
as reuters reports :
post CPI
–
Fed seen on hold until June, with rate-cut pace in focus
March 12 (Reuters) – A second straight month of stronger-than-expected inflation has effectively shut the door on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before June, and makes back-to-back reductions after that look increasingly less likely. …/,,
JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid. And much money flow. Fascinating actually. I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.” So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two. If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible. What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow. But do not discount the larger picture.
Monedge, you brought back some memories 😀
It was mid 90’s and I was on the desk of a Middle Eastern bank – off shore outfit ..
We had a Forex dealing desk , and had regular clients – HNWI – we called them High Net worth Individual Suckers , but some of them became good friends.
Between tens of different stories ( each man had a story to tell 😀 , two cannot be forgotten :
One had a Nickname – Goddammit , I Should Sold it, and the other was called behind his back – BOBBY , BUT WHY NOW ??
Such a fond memories 😀
geezus … what is putin doing right and the un-named doomsayers wrong ?
The Economist: Russia’s economy once again defies the doomsayers
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/10/russias-economy-once-again-defies-the-doomsayers
I want names. Name the doomssayers !
© 2024 Global View