[GVI Forex]

I have said many times that identifying the side to trade at any point in time is more than half the battle in putting on successful trades. Here is an illustration from the earlier run-up in EURUSD.

Visit The Amazing Trader

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 1.0678

Run-up just now paused 1 pip below the top of 1.0674-86 resistance I cited.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4 H

Technical

1.06900 Resistance

1.06700 Support

Gut feeling and experience tell me they might try to push it UP all the way till FOMC tonight…

Not recommending to trade on my or anyone else’s Gut feeling….

[Belgrade Knez]

May 1, 2024 at 11:03 am
Mtl JP

how should I – if at all – trade it for posi-pips ?

———————————————————

what does it mean “posi-pips”?

[Belgrade Bobby]

Amazon – Weekly Chart

Lots of talky around of how it Grew up – This is Technical view

Judge it yourself – to me looks pretty Bearish right now…correction is under way.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Red Data Day – FOMC tonight

Economic Data Calendar

 

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART

Blue Amazing Trader lines dominating but would need to get through 1.2450 (Power of 50 level) to accelerate the downside and shift the focus from 1.25 but….

only back above 1.25 would slow the risk..

GBPUSD has been an underperformer with some pressure coming from a bounce in EURGBP,which in turn is giving EURUSD some support).

 

[GVI Forex]

JP, there has been a lot of volatility around PMI releases so this is likely the key event ahead of the FOMC in this holiday-thinned market.

[Mtl JP]

Econ Calendar says
–
3 hrs to PMI and “HIGH” risk

how should I – if at all – trade it for posi-pips ?
tia!

[GVI Forex]

JP. my point is not just about the flows but what side the market had trouble absorbing.

Read the Morning Bid report I just posted a link to.

[GVI Forex]

JP. my point is not just about the flows but what side the market had trouble absorbing.

Read the Morning Bic report I just posted a link to.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 10:26 / only one talking about it – and then I saw the post go POOF!
–
arguably rebalancing time is a sensitive time for those needing to be in the market

and hail calendar-based and induced “must”s by degenerate traders

FX has its achillie’s heels and opportunities
hedges rebalacing is one such heel

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

May Day for Wall Street comes with the daunting prospect that the multiple interest rate cuts once expected from the Federal Reserve this year might now just be just one – if any.

Morning Bid: Mayday for bonds as 2024 Fed cut hopes dwindle

[Mtl JP]

about the fix and hedging rebalancing
–
one could argue that most of the rebalancing was done by 9150, judging from price action dynamics

after that … something / someone else came in with other design
one can speculate about that

[GVI Forex]

JP, I seemed to be the only one talking about month-end rebalancing yesterday but if you look at the price action ahead of the 4 PM London fixing, there was USD buying. What matters more is that the market had trouble absorbing it, which by itself said something.

[Mtl JP]

9208, high 9244ish
new day after yesty’s month end rebalancing fx hedges

Looking just at USDCHF price action and concidering that most rebalancing occurs +/- 5 minute window around the fixing time and only a small portion starting maybe an hour prior, there should be something else / more than month end rebalancing of fx hedges that continued to drive the DLR up

Which makes me think … about what would be needed to push the dollar higher still

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD (HIGH SO FAR 1.0673)

AS I POSTED LAST NIGHT

EURUSD BREAK OF 1.0674-86 MAKES THIS THE INITIAL RESISTANCE,

ON THE DOWNSIDE, SUPPORTS AT 1.0638-23-01 ARE TARGETS WHILE BELOW 1.0674-86.

LOOKING AHEAD, LONG WAIT UNTIL THE FOMC DECISION… SHOULD KINIT THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE AHEAD OF IT..

[GVI Forex]

SEE THE CHART BELOW AS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

EURUSD 30-minute chart – Low of the day (so far) at 1.0649

 

 

[GVI Forex]

While we wait for the Fed, there are US data releases that could spark some volatility.

ADP EMPLOYMENT’
JOLTS
ISM PMI

SEE OUR ECONOMIC CALENDAR

[GVI Forex]

BTC DAILY CHART – BREAKDOWN?

BTC is down over 5% today and if this was a traditional currency, headlines would be going nuts. But this is a crypto, not a currency so it is just another day at the office.

I prefer to look at 10K ranges for BTC although as the chart shows, it does trade technically.

In this regard, the key focus is on 60000 for if stays below, it will break a pattern of closing within 60-70K.

As the chart shows there is now a void until around 50000 so for me the question is whether the new range is 55-65K or 50-60K.

To be clear, I don’t trade BTC but keep an eye on it as it can be indicative of a general mood.

[Author]

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