[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – RESISTANCE LOOMS

GBPUSD recovering but so far unable to get through the bottom of a 1.2571-1.2594-1.2634 resistance band.

This leaves it dependent of 1.2541 holding to keep exposing 1.2502 again.

[Mtl JP]

ny fed st expectation wet noodle

[Mtl JP]

Players are, imo, not going to go “all hog” with bets. It looks like market is expecting “sticky” inflation. And the expectation for the pace of inflation is that IT will slow down some. So that is where the core bet is.

lets how market sees and prices things at top of hour with release of
11:00 – NY fed’s 1-yr inflation expectation (vs 3% last)

[michael Calif]

daily BTC futures continue BEARISH Option Profile waves from the mid-March TOP … no BOTTOM yet

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TESTING RESISTANCE

As I noted yesterday (scroll to prior pages for a broader view) .6600 would likely set its tone.

This has seen a test of .6624 resistance, its significance is that it guards the key .6648 level as seen on this chart.

Supports and trendline are below .6600, so keep the focus on this level to set the trading bias.

[GVI Forex]

US bond yields edging lower… 10 YEAR 4.471% -3.3BPS

2 Fed speakers due shortly.

[GVI Forex]

I was just asked to elaborate on the Path of Least resistance. Here is an article that keeps proving to be a timely one.

The forex market is on a constant search for the path of least resistance, whether it be on the up or downside for a currency. A trend starts like the gently flowing stream, picks up momentum as with the cascading water, and then reaches a climax when it hits the waterfall.

Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?

Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?

[GVI Forex]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – PROBING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

 

With the BoJ intervention threat looming, the market is following the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.

This has seen EURUSD creep higher while USDJPY is barely moving.
The chart shows the key resistance levels (168.65 and 171.58) while support starts at the up trendline.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CREEPING HIGHER

\

Chart is clear

If 1.0791 becomes support, target is 1.0813

Keeps a bid while above 1.0860, stronger if 1.0791 becomes support.

[GVI Forex]

I was sent this macro view by a seasoned trader

Unless you have to do something there’s nothing that would draw someone into taking on any risk in fx right now. Maybe stays this way til after US elections with no one willing to commit to usd strength or weakness…..

JPY risk probably not worth it from both sides.

The EUR or other dollar plays are worse than data dependent because its more what market wants then what it gets. Movement overall has been trendless with micro moves the equivalent of static. Safe plays like chf weakness are still on the table but the initial leg is played out.

[GVI Forex]

MARKETS REMAIN HYPER-SENSTIVE TO ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES SO HOLD ON TO YOUR SEAT BELTS NEXT WEEK WHEN US RETAIL SALES AND CPI WILL BE REPORTED… SEE DETAILED PREVIEWS IN THIS VERY POPULAR WEEK-AHEAD REPORT

Newsquawk Week Ahead 13th-17th May: Highlights include US CPI and Retail Sales, PBoC, China inflation and activity data, Japan GDP, Australian and UK jobs

Newsquawk Week Ahead 13th-17th May: Highlights include US CPI and Retail Sales, PBoC, China inflation and activity data, Japan GDP, Australian and UK jobs

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street and world stock markets have cleared the first-quarter corporate earnings season comfortably enough to be back stalking record highs, but macro markets don’t want to budge much further until they see this week’s U.S. inflation update.

Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price report sucks much of the oxygen out of the early part of the markets week – critical as it is in revealing whether disinflation has resumed after a sticky Q1, and at least enough to keep Federal Reserve easing expectations this year in the frame.

Morning Bid: Earnings hurdle cleared – CPI fence up next

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street and world stock markets have cleared the first-quarter corporate earnings season comfortably enough to be back stalking record highs, but macro markets don’t want to budge much further until they see this week’s U.S. inflation update.

Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price report sucks much of the oxygen out of the early part of the markets week – critical as it is in revealing whether disinflation has resumed after a sticky Q1, and at least enough to keep Federal Reserve easing expectations this year in the frame.

Morning Bid: Earnings hurdle cleared – CPI fence up next

[Mtl JP]

also a minor issue on the line this week:

jerome powell’s credility

[Mtl JP]

This week will determine theme for the rest of 2024

10-yr 4.485% 6:08 am

After 11 rate hikes hero powell – who has been wrong for 7 qtrs – keeps feeding players hope for rate cut theme.

Wednesday:
Core Inflation YoY 3.6% vs 3.8%
Inflation Rate YoY 3.4% vs 3.5%

IF the release comes in hotter than expected
NO cut at least in rest of 2024

Feel free to place your bets

[GVI Forex]

The market is still digesting Friday’s U of M =cnsoiner sentiment which saw a sharp drop in sentiment and a spike in one-year inflation expectations.

It sounds like a stagflation risk but I have not seen that mentioned.

[GVI Forex]

USDX DAILY CHART – PROXY FOR EURUSD

As I have said before, I look at the USDX not for trading it but as a proxy for EURUSD as it represents 57.6% of the index.

The key level on the downside is at 104.61 as a break would be needed to turn this into a downtrend.

Otherwise, the market is in a holding pattern awaiting US data later this week.

Note for EURUSD, there remains a double top at 1.0791 blocking 1.0800 (psychological) and key 1.0813

High so far today 1.08895

[GVI Forex]

US30 DAILY CHART – LOOKING TO EXTEND THE WINNING STREAK

I am always on the lookout for patterns and one of the strongest is in US30.

Pattern: 8 days of higher daily closes.

The market will likely stay in a buy on dips mode as long as this pattern continues.

Chartwise, the record high looms above.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Resistance 63555.00

Support 60750.00

Almost 3.000$ …interesting…

As this is not exactly your average currency ( if it is a currency at all – in my opinion more of a commodity that crazed the world ), I am using some Thumb analysis on it..

Similar pattern emerged a year ago and it took 2 months of this kind of a correction before it continued Up in almost straight line…

I am not saying that it will repeat , as we lack a real historical data on this one, but just curious…

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold 4H

Rejected again – this time at 2380

Support at 2330 & 2290

Should have another try Up, but if 2330 taken out at first attempt, we’ll have a nice slide down.

However, I would like to see the test of resistance again…

[Author]

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