USDJPY Monthly
This is NOT a Bitcoin, Nvidia or Gold…this is Yen (not Sparta definitely 😀
Mind you, all time High of Modern times is at 160.360
It is becoming kind of hilarious….a Small correction is like 1000 pips lower, and a decent one…well…how about 2.500 pips .
Trading it on anything bigger than half an hour chart takes some Cojones 😀
WSJ – TOP NEWS & ALERTS
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Inflation Victory Is Proving Elusive, Challenging Central Banks and Markets
Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rose to 2.5% in February
Bank of Japan Tankan Survey Shows Mixed Results Amid Rate-Hike Speculation
about the only one thing I reasonably sure about is BoJ’s rate hike: not going to happen anytime soon (i.e few months at least)
EURUSD 15 MIN CHART
It is only a 20 pip range so far, too tight to last. Price action is typical for the start of a quarter, especially this one after a 4 day weekend, as the market re-liquifies.
As the chart shows, 2 red AT lines drawn off the low indicate a shift in risk to the upside that has seen a move up but faces resistance at 1.0744.
Not seen on this chart, the gap in price after the ISM report yesterday is to 1.0772. The key target on the downside remains at 1.0694.
Note while steadying vs the dollar, EUR is trading soft on some of its crosses (e.g. eurgbp, eurcad)
It feels more like the start of a new year than the start of the second quarter.
The key focus will be on US data and how the bond market reacts.
Powell speaks tomorrow.
USDJPY remains in a 151-152 range, betterment bid in the upper half. I read that any intervention should it occur would target a 5 yen drop. I also read that the effects of intervention would be short-lived.
EURUSD stays soft but tight range, suggests a cautious approach awaiting key data from mid-week on
Economic calendar
TUE: RBA Minutes (Mar), CNB Minutes (Mar), South Korean CPI (Mar), EZ/UK Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), German Prelim CPI (Mar), US Non-Durable Goods R (Feb), Chilean Central Bank Announcement
USD 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS BUT…
USDJPY remains within 151-152 with the market wary of pushing the top side too hard.
However, given the overall USD strength and the pop in bond yields, any intervention would likely prove short-lived unless it continues in a sustained way.
With that said, traders will be wary as they do not want to get caught in the first wave should there be intervention.
I think there’s two levels to be aware of wrt eur/usd forming a base. The first is nearby around 1.0725-1.0690….
The second is lower down around 1.0550.
Both would form a right shoulder for an inverted S-H-S if things are destined to play out that way.
Personally I think there’s enough divergence and other stuff going on that would say it doesn’t. But one never knows….
Against the grain high risk, testing short UsdChf here at 9050 and buy side of AudCad. Very light with very tight stops, not for the squeemish. If it sticks the R/R is very good. If not, it would be clear today sets the tone for the quarter with Usd strength. Proper trade is long Usd from Asia. If it doesn’t stick, the trade is long Usd until the cows come home.
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