USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) WEEKLY CHART – 105 IS THE PIVOTAL LEVEL
Sometimes it pays to step back and take a deep breath to look at the market with a clear eye. This follows Friday’s head fake after the initial reaction up in the USD ON A STRONG us JOBS REPORT DID not follow through.
With the EURO representing 57.6$ of the USDX, its chart can be used as either a lead indicator or to confirm what you are seeing in the EURUSD.
Looking at the weekly chart, the 105 level is pivotal with a marginal new high just above it not holding.
So if you are looking for confirmation that EURUSD has legs to the downside, USDX probably needs to establish firmly above 105.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER RECORD HIGH
This was a bleak day for anyone trying to pick a top in XAUUSD on Friday. The reason I say this is because you rarely see such a move in the absence of news unless the market is caught the wrong way and in this case, standing in front of a runaway train..
As I have said many times, there is no reason to try and pick a top (or bottom) before there is a reason to do so.
This is why I rely on my Amazing Trader charts to tell me when there is potential for a low or high.
Looking at this chart, expect a strong bid if it stays above 2305. The key support level is 2265, only below it would suggest a short-term high would be in. Not seen on this chart, there is support as well at 2280.
wsj:
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Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Focus on U.S. Inflation Data, ECB Decision
Brisk Hiring Bolsters Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts
Eurozone Inflation Cools, Setting Stage for June Rate Cut
also and apparently
You’ll Look Better Naked—and Other Ways to Convince a Skeptical Spouse to Paint the Bedroom Pink
Degenerate Traders and Animal Spirits
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BoC to start cutting rates in June, but greater risk is delay – Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada will cut its key interest rate in June, a strong majority of economists in a Reuters poll said, although they also said the risk was the first cut would be later than that, rather than a surprise earlier move.
Newsquawk Week Ahead 8-12th April:
MON: Bank of Israel Announcement, Japanese Earnings (Feb), Swiss Unemployment Rate (Mar), German Trade Balance (Feb)/Industrial Output (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Apr)
TUE: EIA STEO
WED: FOMC Minutes (Mar), BoC Announcement, RBNZ Announcement, US CPI (Mar)
THU: ECB Announcement, OPEC MOMR, Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Mar), US PPI (Mar)
FRI: IEA OMR, Chinese Trade Balance (Mar), German Final CPI (Mar), Swedish CPIF (Mar), UK GDP (Feb), University of Michigan Prelim. (Apr)
“… what the world and our citizens expect of us,”
yellen via cnbc
and altho barkin is voter , NFP apparently left him with his mandible a-gog: that is “quite strong jobs report.”
duh. like a wooden scewer through Count Dracula’s heart causing torpor as their sacrifice ratio quest (despite contary yak from jerome) is not working.
maaami .. maahmi .. help help with sacrifice ratiooooo – aahhh…
oh boy … looks like market has decided on FED yakker’s credibility pecking order
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cnbc
“Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation,… ”
and bowman is not – NOT – near much less at top – of pecking order
See Usd/Cad being a bit under pressure remainder of month and Gbp/Usd likely trying to hold a bid remainder of month. Aud/Usd is dropping but Aud/Cad is not, will be testing the buy side at or just under 8900 Aud/Cad if it catches the offer and gets there (likely will not occur until next week). Fundamentals reasonably support.
XAUUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – ANOTHER NEW HIGH
IT IS EASY TO SAY IN HINDSIGHT BUT OFTEN A CORRECTION IS NEEDED BEFORE SETTING UP A RUN TO A NEW HIGH (OR LOW).
IN THIS CASE, IT IS ANOTHER RECORD HIGH, NEEDING TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER 2305 HIGH TO KEEP THE VERY STRONG BID.
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING WHEN IN UNCHARTED WATERS THE MOST RECENT HIGH (OR LOW) BECOMES THE KEY LEVEL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANYTHING ELSE ON A CHART.
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