EURUSD 4H
Resistances at 1.08400 1.08550 and 1.08850
Supports at 1.07950 and 1.07650
The main question here is : Is this an Uptick prior to the continuation of down trend, or a beginning of formation for next push Up.
Not much of data this week – till Thursday – Economic Calendar, so the moves would be dictated mainly technically .
Currently – Intraday – we should treat 1.08200 as a pivotal .
Coming back to JPs question of the page resets while typing out a post -> Does this also apply to the charts page? It seems that I can set up a page with parameters set on a currency pair and it’s time frame, only to have it reset to eur/usd daily every time the page refreshes. Is it possible to avoid this? If so, how?
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART
GBPUSD bounce off its 1.2574 low is so far just a retracement. To suggest a low is in, 1.2675 would need to be taken out, Currently, resistance at 1.2524 is being tested but this is only a minor level.
Note, EURGBP has backed off from .8600 and this has eased some of the selling pressure on GBPUSD.
Verbal intervention earlier with USDJPY still within reach but staying below 151.90, a 32 year high.
Japan’s top currency diplomat on Monday warned against speculators trying to sell off the yen, saying its weakness did not reflect fundamentals, in the latest warning about the currency’s “big slide” against the dollar….CNBC
USDCHF Analysis: Consolidation and Support Levels
USDCHF has maintained its position above the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the pair is still in an uptrend starting from 0.8729. The upward movement from 0.8729 has reached as high as 0.9019.
The subsequent retracement from 0.9019 suggests that the pair is currently undergoing a period of consolidation for the uptrend. It is expected that the pair will trade within the range of 0.8900 and 0.9019 in the coming days.
If the support level of 0.8900 remains unbroken, the bullish trend could be expected to resume, with a breakout above the 0.9019 resistance level potentially triggering another upward movement towards 0.9100 and 0.9180.
On the downside, a breakdown below the 0.8900 support level could indicate that a longer period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 0.8729 is necessary. In this scenario, the pair would likely find support at the rising trend line on the 4-hour chart.
It is important to note that only a decisive break below the trend line support would suggest the potential completion of the current uptrend.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local) realization
Rectify
Preliminary March reports on French and Italian consumer prices will be posted on Friday and will set up expectations for the Eurozone’s harmonised report on Wednesday, April 3; expectations are flat to lower for France and higher but still very low for Italy. Tokyo consumer prices for March will also be posted on Friday and will set up forecasts for the month’s national consumer prices to be posted in mid-April; slowing rates of inflation are expected.
PCE price indexes, part of Friday’s personal income and outlays report, will wind up US inflation data for the month of February and are not expected to show much if any improvement. Australia will post its CPI report for the month of February on Wednesday.
Canadian GDP for the month of January will be a highlight of Thursday’s session and is expected at plus 0.4 percent. Both Japanese retail sales and industrial production will be posted on Friday with a soft report expected for the latter. And posted on Sunday, March 31 Chinese time will be the country’s official CFLP PMI report which is expected to show improvement for manufacturing.
Econoday
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION?
With Goldman raising its 3-month USDJPY forecast (see prior post), let’s take a look at a 4-hour USDJPY chart.
With 151.90 remaining the major resistance (shown on a daily chart), currently protected by 1.5181-86, the current range is consolidating between 150/152, with 151 acting as a neutral midpoint.
The key support is at 150.26. above it keeps 151.90 in play, a stronger risk if 151.00 can become support.
The reason that I looked at the range as consolidation is that the upcoming week is not a normal one
Pre-Easter week and a 4-day long weekend break
A week normally dominated by position adjustment rather than aggressive positioning
Light economic calendar, highlight Friday’s US PCE report
Month/quarter end for many on Thursday with markets closed on Friday-Monday
The actual quarter end is Friday
a rebel’s view
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Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Raphael Bostic said on Friday he now expects just a single quarter-point interest rate cut this year versus two cuts that he had projected previously, a change in his outlook driven by persistent inflation and stronger-than-anticipated economic data.
“I’m definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to fall towards the Fed’s 2% target, Bostic said
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