GVI – regarding Britain, forward rates for Euro are decidedly on the sell, and for Sterling they are overwhelmingly on the bid. That is very unlikely to change today. Market did nothing on this morning’s data. Stocks are waiting for Nvidia. The highly moderate bid tone in stocks anticipated pre-market did transpire but overall in a holding pattern. Could be a 20 point range today in Euro for now likely. Bought UsdChf last week per our discussion. So far so good.
So far not much of a reaction in GBP but be on alert
Rumours of a snap election are growing in Westminster following the announcement of a possible summer contest.
A Cabinet meeting has senior Conservatives clearing space in their diaries, with some suggesting a reshuffle might instead be in the offing, with Jeremy Hunt’s position as chancellor at risk.
Adding to mounting speculation, the foreign secretary David Cameron has cut his trip to Albania short to attend this afternoon’s urgent meeting expected around 4pm….
The outside contracts in the US 2yr note have transitioned to a slight sell bias overall finally but a bounce from current levels is fully conceivable. The nearby contracts are flat overall in the larger scheme after running up. It created a moderate overall sell bias for us last Friday. Preference going forward is selling runs uphill and the same for Euro as I’ve been noting since last week. See bids coming in today early, stocks are not done overall.
Doesn’t take the wizard of OZ to see it.
USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – KEY RESISTANCE CITED
USDCAD testing its upside but would need to get through 1.3690 (see chart) to confirm the low is in and suggest more scope on the upside.
TRxpect support as long as it trades above 1.3650 but price action is still within the current range.
Note the trade at the bottom of this chart was an earlier AT Alert.
The majority of transactions in EurJpy are taking place between 169.75 and 169.50. The sell side is dominant obviously, but it shouldn’t take much to see a bid take hold, especially in stocks, which affects Eur in general. Balance is at 169.65. Dow futures may be poised to try for 39950 despite the selling overnight.
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EURUSD 4h
Support at 1.08350 , 1.08150 & 1.08000
Resistance at 1.08550, 1.08650 & 1.08750
As expected yesterday, we have reached the support zone. Now watch 1.08350 and 1.08150 as possible launching pads for another attempt Up.
Pattern wise, this is a moment when we have to sit back and wait to see – both ways are possible – 50-50 chance.
If below 1.08150 it would open a way for bigger correction.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
While the inflation and interest rate world continues to throw up unpleasant surprises, it’s hard to imagine much of a shift in major indexes on Wednesday as Nvidia’s (.NVDA), opens new tab earnings drum roll builds through the session before a post-bell release.
In my USDCHF post (scroll below), I mentioned a 4-week high. It was not a random observation. The importance of the 4-week high or low is explained in the following:
USDX 4 HOUR CHART – PROXY FOR THE EURUSD?
With the EURUSD representing 57.6% of the US Dollar Index (USDX), this index can at times be used as a proxy for what is seen on a EURUSD chart.
In this USDX chart, momentum is trying to build to the upside that needs to take out 105.10 to indicate an end to this latest leg to the downside.
Re EURUSD, this was posted by Michael Caif yesterday
May 21, 2024 at 8:17 pm|
michael Calif
Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold
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