USDJPY Weekly
We have some interesting levels to watch ;
Resistances at 156.000 & 156.750
Supports at : 153.500 , 152.000 , 151.500 & 150.000
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART – EASY WITH HINDSIGHT
It is easy to say that NAS100 had topped after looking at this chart with hindsight.
Having taken out the lows for the past 2 weeks, NAS100 is on the defensive showing a potential target at 16190. This is not a forecast, just pointing out what I see as a key level on this chart.
Given how fickle this index can be, watch the reaction to earnings later on.
US GDP
Consensus forecasts are for growth to have slowed to 2.4% from 3.4% in the final quarter of last year – with core PCE inflation estimates jumping to 3.4% from 2.0%.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Megacap Meta (META.O), opens new tab revived Big Tech jitters on Wall St overnight as its pumped-up stock balked at an ostensibly decent earnings update late Wednesday – but the mining sector was abuzz about BHP’s (BHP.AX), opens new tab possible $39 billion mega bid for Anglo American (AAL.L), opens new tab.
In a reverse of the positive way markets treated Tesla’s beaten-down shares (TSLA.O), opens new tab after a revenue miss the prior day, Meta’s headline beat triggered an out-of-hours 13% plunge in its shares as investors appeared to focus on the scale of its outsize spending on artificial intelligence projects.
NQ dragged lower by Meta (-13%) post-earnings, DXY softer & Antipodeans benefit from metals prices
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
European bourses are mostly lower, US equities are mixed, with the NQ underperforming after Meta (-13.1%) results
Dollar is lower, Antipodeans benefit from higher metals prices, JPY is softer holding above 155.50 against the USD
Bonds are rangebound awaiting impetus from Tier 1 data later today
Crude is slightly lower in absence of energy-specific newsflow, XAU benefits from the weaker dollar, base metals are mostly firmer
Source: Newsquawk.com
THIS WAS A VERY TIMELY BLOG ARTICLE
WHEN YOU SEE TWO CURRENCIES MOVING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS (JPY DOWN VS THE USD, OTHERS MOVING HIGHER), IT IS THE CLEAREST SIGN THAT CROSSES ARE DRIVING THE MARKET.
IF OTHER CURRENCIES DID NOT MOVE HIGHER, USDJPY WOULD BE EVEN HIGHER TO PRODUCE THE SAME CROSS-CURRENCY MOVES.
GBPUSD 4-HOUR CHART – REVERSAL OF FORTUNE
GBPUSD, which fell sharply to end last week on shifting interest rate cut expectations has reversed course as the market reassesses that outlook.’
This saw UK 10-year bond yield rise 9BPS to close yesterday at the highest level for the year.
Combine that with JPY weakness and a sharp GBPJPY rise, you can see why there has been a GBPUSD reversal.
GBP is also firmer on other crosses (e.g. EURGBP is lower as well).
Looking at this chart, it needs to hold 1.2497 *=(suggests 1.25 as well) to maintain a strong bid although support is seen as long as it stays above 1.2423.
AUDJPY DAILY CHART — 100.80
No change to what I posted this morning where I pointed out the 100.80 breakout level that needs to become support to open the door on the upside.
The move above USDJPY 155 has eased some of the pressure on crosses to absorb the JPOY selling but is still one path of least resistance.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – A LESSON TO BE LEARNED
I learned a long time ago that you can not rely on central banks to protect your position. The trader landscape is littered with blown accounts by those who bet on central banks.
So, the question is whether this is another one of those times with the BoJ being called out on its intervention threat as USDJPY trades through the next presumed line in the sand at 155.
With 155x now taken out, this is the only level on a chart that has any meaning as USDJPY trades to a new 34-year high.
So, 155 will determine whether the market will push higher into uncharte3d waters.
Many new traders have not experienced intervention and even those who have traded on this event, it pays to have a refresher to see which type tends to be most effective. I call it an intervention primer.
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