In the midst of ongoing analysis I have come to the conclusion that no matter who wins the US election US stocks will go up for an extended period. The only difference will be if Harris is in office the % gain will be less than if Trump is in office. Most of it is due to the release of uncertainty. All the anti-tariff chatter is from people who don’t want a level playing field and/or ideologically out of touch with reality.
Either way stocks are almost certainly going up barring something dramatic. I would also consider getting on the buy side of oil through options because the declines we have seen since August are intentional and politically driven and not an accurate reflection of fundamental dynamics. Accounting for seasonal and other drag effects of course.
Consumer Confidence should be great. New York only lost 1% (180,000) of its population in 2023 for economic reasons compared to 244,000 in 2022. That’s good right?
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Even as public borrowing estimates were shaved on Monday, U.S. Treasury yields continue to probe three-month highs as markets lean toward a win for Donald Trump in next week’s election and a possible clean sweep in Congress for his Republican party.
In an event-packed fortnight that sees the first of this week’s five U.S. megacap earnings later on Tuesday alongside critical job openings data, Wall Street stock indexes remain buoyant near record highs.
