[Mtl JP]

my guess is FED rate cut , regardless of july, sept or … is a non-story. it is priced in

as DLR keeps going down … vs eur, vs chf …

[SF Monedge]

There is absolutely zero interest in Dow 4100 and 4200 puts.

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures point of control is 39655.  Edging up to it again.  Lets see what they do.  Calls have a little strength, puts no dice overall.

[michael Calif]

revision:   any USD futures low is temporary; not selling today’s EURUSD rally    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

I bought Bitcoin at 25k a while back.  Really would love to see 35k again, which if I recall accurately Bobby also pointed out as a good area.  The range of value I estimated a long time ago is 35k low end and 150k high end with a fair value of 65k.  Seems to be going that way.  All we need is a few more major blockchain frauds to get us to 35k.

[SF Monedge]

Sterling covered a 50 point spread (25 each direction) the instant the job numbers came out and was done in less than 2 seconds.  Major market entities really only care about longer term positioning.  That activity was pre-established with zero regard for the data itself, purely to run stops and collect on the other side of the jolt.

[SF Monedge]

Apparently the market was listening to me and Dow stopped dead at 393.50 one minute after I said that lol.

[SF Monedge]

Dow  might peak around 393.70 if it gets there today.  Transferable to Euro.

[GVI Forex]

US bond yields at the lows, stocks up, fx paying attentuion, GBP still the outperformer (above 1.28)

[michael Calif]

USD futures will confirm a Low today    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

Point of control in Vix futures 13.25, and are trading above that so there is some apprehension in risk on views.  Vix futures have been very low and so this little pop is one of many indications of changing sentiment.

[GVI Forex]

Thanks Michael for your post…

Note most US traders will be looking for an early exit after the jobs data

CAD is the loser today after downside miss in its jobs data, GBP is the winner but so far unable to hold above 1.28

[michael Calif]

now selling today’s EURUSD rally    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

Most metrics including forwards, options, volume, open interest and the like are holding bid Sterling post data.

[GVI Forex]

Only NFP suprised on upside but last month downward revision.

Typical whipsaw… let the dust settle but report is being taken as dovish

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – POLITICAL STABILY VS POLITICAL INSTABILITY

One can make the argument that political stability in the UK after Labour;s landslide win contrasted with tht of Europe depending on the outcome of  Sunday’s French vote argues in favor of the GBP.

With that said EURGBP has been recovering ahead of these key events but is losing steam after .8500 held.

If looking at levels, they are at .8452-78, suggesting .8450-80 is a range with a break the trendline and .8450 more at risk as long as it stays below .8480.

[GVI Forex]

So the surprise in US data would be no surprise.

[GVI Forex]

U.S. economic surprises are at their most negative in two years.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

While U.S. markets return from the Independence day holiday to assess significant cooling of the labor market stateside, British markets rallied on a long-forecast landslide for the UK’s opposition Labour Party in Thursday’s elections.

Morning Bid: Labor in focus – US jobs, new UK government

[GVI Forex]

MIchael and his Options Profile called for EURUSD buying starting with thgis post on June 20 — great directional call

June 20, 2024 at 3:20 pm#7904
michael Calif

revision  –  now buying all EURUSD declines   :Option Profile

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