(AP) – “Powell’s prepared testimony Tuesday did not provide what Wall Street investors are watching for most closely: Any clear indication of the timing for when the Fed might make its first rate cut. But the testimony will likely harden investors’ and economists’ expectations that the first reduction will come at the central bank’s September meeting.” – fwiw
I am on record that a sept cut would be , imo, a political cut.
so naturally I am sceptical of sept cut even though players may be gaming it
YES YES YES !!!
to new trading opportunities :
–
Jeff Cox:
Trump’s increasing election odds after debate already affecting financial markets
JUL 8 20241:32 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO – Jeff Cox on cnbc
Canadian Dollar looks like it is gaining interest in futures/options/forwards/open interest/some TSX stocks so it looks like UsdCad (3638) is more tilted to the offer for the moment. Everything hinges on Powell.
Some metrics including options, forwards, open interest etc are showing a solid bid at current levels. That matches the larger bid cycle but it is against the grain of the recent closer in selling. Market is looking bid further out, so the pair either likely fails and dumps today post-Powell or goes on another run up the hill.
One school of thought is that Powell will try to walk a tightrope and maintain the status quo in his testimony.
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If so, then how markets spin his testimony will dictate the reaction. Typically it would try to spin it dovish.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money – and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday’s U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors – with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with ‘core’ rates still stuck at 3.4%.
