GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 1.28?
I posted a 4-hour GBPUSD chart earlier (scroll down to see levels) hat showed it lagging but has since shrugged that off (note EURGBP has dipped vs, an earlier bounce).
The daily chart, meanwhile, continues to show upside targets but 1.28 is one of those pivotal, some say psychological, other say options barrier levels that are so far causing a pause.
The key time on this chart is next month when support and the key trendline intersect.
Surgetrader, once considered one of the better-run firms in the prop trading industry, has closed its doors. This is another blow to an industry that has seen several prop trading firms cease operations.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street looks set for a sleepy but positive start to a shortened week after Monday’s Memorial Day break, with the consumer back in focus in May updates later today.
Morning Bid: Post-break Wall Street stays pumped up
Check out Economic Data Calendar for today
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – PATH PF LEAST RESISTANCE
With the market seemingly not ready to push the upside too hard and prompt intervention, it seems to be following the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.
Offsets may be one source of demand for currencies like the AUD, EUR and GBP.
For USDJPY, the current range is around 156.50-157.20.
A key focus this week will be on Japan CPI with some seeing the window closing on rate hikes as inflation is cookling.
Suggested reading: Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – LAGGING?
GBPUSD break of 1.2761 so far not going far and is dependent on 1.2761+ to keep a strong bid and then 1.2725 and the trendline holding below it to keep a focus on 1.28+
If you look at GBP crosses you will see where some of the demand is coming from… in this regard, EURGBP bounce from .85 today has seen GBPUSD lag today.
EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – Too tight to last
EURUSD testing upside but would need to get through 1.0895 to break the current range.
As this 30 minute chart shows, it has been trading in a 9-pip range for over 2 hours, one so tight that it will not last for much longer (the intra-day range has so far been just 20 pips, 1.0860-80)
So there is nothing to get excited about the upside unless 1.0895 is decisively taken out.
Otherwise, look for 1.o850 tp continue to set its intra-day tone.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Apr) – 12 month inflation 2.9% (prev 3.0%), 3-tear ahead 2.4% (prev 2.5&); growth outlook less negative and labour market seen stable.
Source; Newsquawk.com
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
The European Central Bank publishes inflation expectation surveys on Tuesday, which along with policymaker speeches are the highlight of an otherwise quiet calendar
Thanks Bobby on your 8:38pm post, and sincere congratulations for making it that far.
As noted by BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian BelskiIn years where the S&P 500 rallies more than 8% in the first five months of the year, as it just did, the index gains more than 7% to finish the year 70% of the time. Euro should ordinarily benefit if such a percentage sticks this year. So regardless of inflation effect, rates of decline in pullbacks, interest rates, or anything else such as economic slowdown, that is something to consider. The bottom line is what is the market doing this week for most active participants.
For those who transact on bi-weekly or longer time frames the options markets, sovereign, and bank positioning matters a bit more. For those who are tuned to larger time frames then the economics matter in different ways and so you have 10,000 economists saying the age old phrase “on the other hand.”
EURUSD failed to break 1.0863
Last 1.0842
The only news I have seen
ECB’s Villeroy said that a June interest rate cut is a done deal barring a surprises
His comments are not a surprise – the focus should be on what comes next in terms of rate cuts
If you are trading today it is like you are trading with yourself.
USDX 4 HOUR CHART – EURUSD PROXY?
As I noted, with EURUSD representing 57.6% of the index, it often acts as a proxy for the currency.
In this chart, the highlighted red AT line being broken would need to be sustained and then confirmed by a solid EURUSD move above 1.0863 to suggest a potential shift in direction or at least a loss of upward momentum
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