USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – biding its time?
USDCAD seems to be biding its time ahead of the BoC meeting this week.
Chart shows it trying to build downward monentum that would need to take out 1.3590 to suggest more scope on the downside.
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If it holds between 1.36-1.37 then 1.3650 will set its intra-day bias.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
June kicks off with a series of big election results around the world – with big landslides unfolding for favoured candidates in Mexico and India – while Wall Street has perked up in a key week for the U.S. labour market.
Morning Bid: Wall St eyes election-strewn June, jobs week
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – FIRMER JPY CROSSES
USDJPY is a tocuh sifter but withiun its 156.34-157.71 range.
As I have been noting, BoJ does not want to see 158 breached and my conspiracy theory hat says it is working begind the scenes to keepo 158 from breaking.
Within this range it appears 157 will set the tone.
Note JPY is firmer on ITs crosses.
How do we know cross flows are a factor?
If 2 currencies move in opposITe directions vs. the dollar yoiu can assume that it is a result of real money cross flow orders..
GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION
GBPUSD is trading softer with pressure coming out of its crosses (note firmer EURGBP, softer GBPJPY)_
Howeever, Tt is consolidating as well after last weel’s pause above the key 1.2674 level. This is the level that woould need to be broken to confirm the 1.28 faiure and that the high is in for now.
Aboce 1.2674 it is consolidating.
USDX 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING
As I noted, USDX is on my daily checklist to see if it is acting as a EURUSD proxy (57.6% of the index)’
The price action is within the low-high band highlighted on this chart so best I can say it is consolidating.
Shifting back to the EURUSD, it is consolkidqting as well but with a softer tone if it stays below 1.0850.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
Despite some talk it might hold steady, the Bank of Canada is expected to begin cutting rates on Wednesday with an incremental 25-basis-point move. There is no uncertainty at all that the European Central Bank will begin cutting rates, also by an expected 25 basis points on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of India on Friday is expected to hold its policy rate steady.
Eurozone retail sales on Thursday are expected to show slowing monthly growth, while German manufacturing orders on Thursday and German industrial production on Friday are both expected to rebound modestly from prior declines.
Moderate growth is the call for both US and Canadian employment on Friday. US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 195,000 with average hourly earnings seen up 0.3 percent on the month for a steady annual rate of 3.9
Econoday
GME (NYSE) GameStop Corp. is considered the king of meme stocks and most of the investing literature that can be found around the stock revolves around its meme feature.
The purpose of this discussion is to present an analysis of the company’s fundamentals beyond its fading meme feature. Indeed, GameStop is a business with shrinking sales and a falling investor base. At a current price-earnings ratio of above 1,000, the potential meme premium in its valuation is unsustainable in the absence of the retail investors’ euphoria that existed in 2021. The business continues to decline and the possibility for the stock to become unlisted at some point in the future is real.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
The price of Bitcoin appears to have returned to a choppy market condition, quashing any hopes of a breakout to new highs soon. However, the good news is that the current bull cycle may still not be over, even though it is taking a while for the premier cryptocurrency to resume its upward momentum.
Specifically, the latest on-chain observation shows that Bitcoin has been going through a “euphoria wave” over the past few months.
Dell Technologies DELL shares experienced a decline Friday afternoon despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 financial results.
Dell Technologies reported a 6% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $22.24 billion and surpassing the consensus estimate of $21.67 billion. The company also reported adjusted EPS of $1.27, slightly ahead of estimates of $1.26.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART – CONSOLIDATION AS WELL
If you take a step back here as well you will see that the AUDUSD uptrend is still inatct but consolidating after setting a high at .6714 12 days ago.
Key levels are highlighted on the chartt: .6714 on top, .6557 on the downside. Only a break of ,6557 would confirm a break of the uptrend.
Consolidation range is also shown on this chart.
As we start a new month mark down the prior month’s range (.6454-.6714) as a reference.
USDJPY DAILY CHART – CONSOLIDATION BELOW KEY HIGHS
If you take a step back and look at the daily chart you will see that USDJPY spent the month of May trading below the 160.16 high and almost the entire month below 157.99.
As I have been saying, if I was in the BoJ’s shoes I would want to keep it trading below 158.00 lest the focus shift to 160.16 if above it,
There have been bouts of what seems like interventiion (not confirmed) that found support on deep dips (last one was at 156.34).
On the downside, it is easier to focus on the midpoint of 150-160 and use 155 as the pivotal level to set the tone within this range (finds support while above it).
On the upside, expect a limit if it stays below 158.
Normally I would say mark down the prio month;s range but in this case mark down 151.85-160.16.
Given the way markets have been trading, this is a week where the reaction to news will be more important than the news itself.
Central bank meetings
US data
See our Economic Calendar and/or scroll down and click on the Week Ahead report.
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