USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – JPY GOES FROM OVERPERFORMER TO UNDERPERFORMER
The failure to sustain a move below 155 has seen a pop in USDJPY and JPY weaken on crosses
Looking at this chart, the risk is still on the downside as long as it stays below 156.49
Using FIBOS:
156.35 = 61.8% of 157.47-154.53
156.50 = 61.8 pf 157.71-154.53
So if I had to choose two levels to watch it would be
156.50 (above would break current momentum)
155.00 (no change to my view as the bias setter)
I got this off the web
As of June 3, 2024, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the United States was -8.90. The CESI is the difference between official economic results and forecasts, and a sum above zero indicates that economic performance is generally better than expected. The CESI increases as the economy recovers, but decreases quickly as the economy declines
EURO 1.0876
Here is one good example why one should be selective and discerning of the news source
E.C.B. Is Likely to Leapfrog the Fed on Interest Rate Cuts – New York Times
With eurozone inflation falling, the European Central Bank has signaled it is ready to lower rates this week, diverging from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
By Eshe Nelson
Jun 05, 2024 04:00 AM
European Central Bank officials are expected to cut interest rates this week for the first time in more than five years, drawing a line under the worst of the eurozone’s inflation crisis and easing the pressure on the region’s weak economy.
… blablabla
EYE on yellen
–
StreetInsider
Yellen says bill issuance not aimed at ‘sugar high’
By David Lawder. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday rejected suggestions by Republican senators that the Treasury is deliberately increasing issuance of short-term Treasury bills at higher interest rates to try to stimulate the economy ahead of the November presidential election.
Yellen told a U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing that Treasury’s mix of debt issuance, despite a higher share of short-term bills since the COVID-19 pandemic, is in line with historical norms and with the advice of market participants in the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.
“First of all, let me say that we never time the market. A tenet of Treasury debt management is that issuance should be regular and predictable, and that’s appropriate over time,” Yellen
Forexlive
Treasury Secretary Yellen:Treasury never tries to time market in debt management
June 5 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Investor sentiment is fragile as Asian markets reach the mid-point of the week, with bubbling angst and political volatility across the emerging world compounding deepening concern over U.S. and global economic growth.
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UsdMexicanPeso is a screaming buy due to uncertainty with Mexico’s 1st female President voted in the other day. Not to mention an historic 37 candidates have been assassinated. Perhaps we can factor in, as one official pointed out, “she is also a mother and used to dealing with tantrums and meltdowns.” Nice outlook.
It is a new quarter. There has been a bit of disconnect between yields and Dxy of late in some sessions, and quite a bit of adjusting convictions in everything including commodities. Some pivotal areas at question. My stake is back to the dollar overall until proven otherwise albeit facing rate cut expectations.
XAGUSD DAILY CHART – $30 AND 10%
XAGUSD fall from a 32.50 double top reached around 10% to today’s low.
The break of $30, meanwhile, makes this the pivotal level that will determine whether the retreat has farther to fo go.
Similar to XaUUSD, I would not be suroprised to hear JPY cArry trades being unwound.
XAGUSD DAILY CHART – $30 AND 10%
XAGUSD fall from a 32.50 double top reached around 10% to today’s low.
The break of $30, meanwhile, makes this the pivotal level that will determine whether the retreat has farther to fo go.
Similar to XaUUSD, I would not be suroprised to hear JPY cArry trades being unwound.
XAGUSD DAILY CHART – $30 AND 10%
XAGUSD fall from a 32.50 double top reached around 10% to today’s low.
The break of $30, meanwhile, makes this the pivotal level that will determine whether the retreat has farther to fo go.
Similar to XaUUSD, I would not be suroprised to hear JPY cArry trades being unwound.
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