[SF Monedge]

Once again the devil is in the details.  The headline jobs number is better than expected.  What is behind the headline number is that entering 2020 96% of job applicants found work, but the fact is that now 96% of applicants do not find work.  The percent of jobs created is also dominant on the part-time position vs the full time position.  While layoffs and firings do not appear to have much change in the headline, re-assignment to part time from full time is heavily skewed toward part-time re-hire, which cancels out the original layoff/firing.

Smells  all rosy to some people though.

[SF Monedge]

Other than the November contract, all futures, options, forwards, spreads, and other secret metrics are stronger on the buy side of Euro post=data.

[GVI Forex]

Weekly jobless claims less than expected

Even veteran traders would take a double take on the reaction but bond yields up, Stocks up, usd up

I guess it is how do you spell r-e-l-i-e-f that the job market is not cratering.

EURUSD tested my 1.0892 support, held first test

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

Supports : 2380.00 & 2400.00

Resistances : 2425.00 , 2440.00 & 2495.00

If it manages to go back above 2425.00 previous high will be in sights.

However , close below 2400.00 would be a bearish signal – not definitive, but first warning.

[Mtl JP]

… bumpy …
or anxious
–
looking at what is in demand and it appears safe-haven ccies and aud sticks out like sore thumb (tks to RBA)

DLRx looks confused , some might say mixed and I d say vs yestrday is in harmony with stocks which cerrently look pukey. Maybe on account of anxiety about FEDs “easing”.
right … nothing like anxiety buildup after a washing.

I think players are gaining confidence that the table is turning in favour of employers vs employees.
which adds to the anxiety about how the FEDs digest that.

outside the econ calendar at 8:30 and 10am
13:00 – janet peddles 25billion of 30-yr paper (after a crappy auction yesty)
15:00 – barkin yaks

With that being said I am biased
I suspect the DLR (Dlrx) has a negative tone and its upside is currently limited.

[GVI Forex]

JP, good heads up (and teamwork) on the mva zone… low was 1.2664, last at 1.2695

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Seeking some calm, markets remain edgy following the volatility jolt of the past week and traders now seek some re-assurance the real economy has not shifted underneath them.

Morning Bid: Markets stay bumpy awaiting jobs reality checking

[Mtl JP]

Jay – GBP

maybe it is boredom, like poking a stick in the coals of a barely smoking campfire at 2am …
see if it can be goaded into a flame to test the up-side next
1.2715 / 20 ?

[GVI Forex]

GBP taking a hit and now in the 100-200 daily MVA zone. EURGBP testing above .8620, major level is at .8644

Checking for news…

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

Trading lower today following the late day swoon in US stocks yesterday, which have so far not followed through overnight.

Chart shows a consolidation range around 144-148 although 145-148 can be used as well.

Keep an eye on the risk on/risk off mood to see if there is a correlation with USDJPY.

Geopolitical risks are in the background but all signs point to an Iran retaliation so just be aware of a headline.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 100 AND 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES

 

The 100 day (blue) and 200 day (yellow) that JP pointed out come in at 1.2683 and 1.2654, respectively.

This forms a key zone as 1.2612, the base of the move to 1.3044 looms below it.

Otherwise, 1.27 has been pivotal as it has traded 3 days in a row as GBPUSD struggles to regain a bid.

Note GBPUSD has been lagging EURUSD as EURGBP is firmer today.

[GVI Forex]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BEWARE OF TIGHT RANGES

The only 2 levels that matter for me are 1.0892 (uptrend intact while above it) and 1.1008 (high for the move) as EURUSD consolidates.

While within 1.09-1.10, look for 1.0950 to eventually dictate whether or not the market makes another run at the high

One word of caution: When in tight ranges (yesterday’s range was 31 pips), what you see on a short term chart (i.e. candles or bars) may look like big moves when in fact they are small moves within a tight range.

[Mtl JP]

Yakker on Deck
–
22:40 – AU bullock yaks

could be fun
with au at 6538; S 65 and Res 66

[Mtl JP]

What will be the outcome with relation to the riots in England to British Sterling?
how about pop n crack of hardwood on the skull to imporove behaviour ?

OR as report from say relatively “right” rag daily mail:
“Far-right protests fizzle out in the drizzle as tens of thousands of ordinary Brits crowd streets to silence the rioting thugs… who desperately try to save face by pretending ‘100 demo’ plans were deliberate LIES to waste police time”

and so …
GBPUSD (1.269x) basically still stable around 1.27

As u know I am biased. Techs indicate niaah to bearish
In the s/t puppy’s trend is still down from earlier 1.3o-something.
I am expecting Sup around congruence of the 100 and 200dmas probably in the 1.2685 / 60 zone
I d get excited about the uP-side N of 1.2775 not holding Res.

[SF Monedge]

What will be the outcome with relation to the riots in England to British Sterling?  Continued instability and an eye on 2500 at which point I will likely already be forming call options if able.

I find it amusing the riots are portrayed as “far right” riots in left leaning media.  On the contrary, the violent distain is comprised of individuals from a considerable reach of beliefs if one has the time for a little research.  The police for example.  Apparently people are sick of insane ideological imbalance.  Apparently politicians learned nothing from the fall of the Berlin Wall.

[SF Monedge]

If things go normally Aussie will continue to decline into the start of Asia before rebounding.  So my preference is the long side from a bit lower if I don’t already have any positions established.  Maybe 20 pips or so.

Yen is in the middle of the forest in my near term metrics and so I need some volatility again before gracing the market with my presence in that pair again.

[Mtl JP]

“The shrinking raises are the latest sign—alongside last week’s lackluster jobs report—that workers have lost much of the leverage they’ve had with bosses in the past few years. With hiring now slowing sharply, employers are controlling payroll costs by cutting or freezing bonuses, doling out fewer and smaller merit increases, business leaders and compensation consultants say.”

sounds like progress if you are NOT like janet

[Mtl JP]

This sounds like something the FED might commision for publication for the peasantry

“After a Pay Boom, Raises Are Shrinking
Workers have lost much of the leverage that let them command bigger paychecks in recent years”
– wsj

An insidious part in the formula of their “Sacrifice Ratio”
bit by bit and patiently

[michael Calif]

futures traders remain Short Gold, per Aug 2    :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

Supports : 2380.00 & 2370.00

Resistance : 2405.00 , 2425.00 & 2435.00

Look at the chart : if it closes this bar ( 55 min) below 2390.00 , we’ll see the test of that support line below 2370/2380

But if it closes above 2395.00 we’ll be shooting for 2425.00

[Author]

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