[GVI Forex]

USDCAD found support around 1.3720

AUDUSD so far staying below .6610

USDJPY trading firmer but below 147.90

EURUSD – On the sideline

A touch of risk on in stocks

Typical Monday start

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – MOVING AVERAGES CHECK THE DOWNSIDE

Posted over the weekend (daily chart)

GBPUSD bounce from the 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) moving average band would need to regain 1.28+ to expose resistance (1.2800-20) and retracement levels as shown below.

On the downside. 1.27 is a pivotal level that needs to trade above to keep a new found bid. Below it is key support is at the 1.2664 low and the major 1.2612 support.

There is a full UK economic calendar this week so the reaction will dictate whether GBPUSD has found a bottom.

GBPUSD retracement levels:

[Mtl JP]

Interesting display of euphemism in dolan’s “off-radar” poetic talent this morning:
–
“Markets pray” … that “there should be nothing to scare the horses if the number comes in on consensus – with even Fed hawks now acknowledging it’s time to ease as long as disinflation continues.”

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Off-radar for much of the past week’s market turbulence, U.S. inflation updates this week will reveal just how much latitude the Federal Reserve has to meet pumped-up expectations around its first interest rate cut next month.

Morning Bid: Markets pray inflation stays well behaved

[GVI Forex]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – COMMODITY CURRENCIES REBOUND

It makes sense since JPY carry trade unwinds hit commodity currencies the hardest, it is logical to see these currencies rebound (vs JPY as well) once the panic selling subsided.

What they have in common are the big wicks that suggested highs/lows are in for now.

USDCAD:

Intra-day support 1.3720

Daily chart support 1.3656

Key weekly support 1.3588 and the trendline

If it trades within 1.37-1.38, back above 1.3750-60 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.3790-00.

Note, AUD and NZD outperforming today, CAD lagging

[GVI Forex]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – JPY CROSSES

AUD and NZD both outperforming while JPY is weaker (USDJPY higher) suggest JPY crosses are at play.

AUDUSD .6610 is a key resistance

Support below the market as long as it trades above .6545.

Whatever the case, the blowout to the downside (just one week ago) indicates the bottom is in.

[GVI Forex]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Wednesday’s US CPI is expected show limited if any progress in July with monthly rates expected to be modestly higher but still exceeding those of June and with annual rates unchanged to marginally lower at best. US retail sales on Thursday are expected to be slightly higher to flat while industrial production on Thursday is expected to reverse prior gains. Consumer sentiment on Friday is expected to edge higher but remain depressed.

Chinese data on Friday are also expected to prove uninspiring with no change in July growth rates for fixed asset investment and industrial production and only modest improvement from a depressed June for retail sales.

Policy announcements will be limited to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday. Headline inflation in the UK is expected to move modestly higher on Wednesday with the first estimate for second-quarter GDP expected to hold firm on Thursday.

Consumer inflation data from India is expected to slow significantly in data for July. Australian wage data on Tuesday is expected to be steady with Australian employment expected to moderate in data on Thursday.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

Sauve qui peut
–
cnbc f/page
“Harris leads Trump, Biden on who voters trust with the economy, new poll finds”

[michael Calif]

nearby BTC furues are headed higher; any sharp decline presents another opportunity to get Long.    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

nearby Gold futures should peak and turn lower no later than Thursday.    :gtwo3

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Weekly Chart
Supports : 2415.00 , 2395.00 & 2300.00

Resistances : 2460.00 , 2475.00 & 2490.00

Continue reading…..

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.27750 , 1.27850 & 1.28050

Supports : 1.27450 , 1.27250 & 1.26750

After breaking below the Channel Trend line, the same one is now acting as a Resistance -1.28050

It doesn’t mean that we’ll be watching Bears dancing, as it might be just a correction, but if that resistance shows strength, we should be falling one more leg…all the way to the Major Support at 1.24150.

That development can take about 4 days to happen….so it can be traded both ways ( as it is always the case with the Demon )

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Supports : 1.09100 , 1.09000 & 1.08800

Resistances : 1.09300 , 1.09450 & 1.09650

After quite an action early this week (Monday-Tuesday ) market decided to let it be…

Very lame …

First thing on Monday it should first test the supports and depending on the outcome try Up again.

But it might be just my wishful thinking…it can react like a dead horse after all…we’ll see

[GVI Forex]

How’s this…

Range for the week — 141.68-147.90 (622 pips)

USDJPY Aug 9 close 146.63 vs. Aug 2 close 146.54, UP 9 PIPS on the week!

[GVI Forex]

How’s this…

USDJPYAugust 9 close 146.63 vs. August 2 close 146.54, UP 9 PIPS on the week!

[GVI Forex]

The week below has a full calendar in markets that remain hyper sensitive to news… see full previews

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead12th-16th August 2024: Highlights include US CPI and Retail Sales; UK CPI, Jobs and Retail Sales; Aussie Jobs; RBNZ; China activity data and Japan GDP

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA
As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX
Nasdaq, futures inch up on dovish Fed comments after jobs data
Expedia gains after Q2 profit beat

Elf Beauty falls on dour FY sales, profit forecast

Futures: S&P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.2%, Dow flat

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

SPX: S&P 500 Logs 2.3% for Best Day Since 2022 as Jobs Data Offsets Recession Worries
S&P 500 gains big, Nasdaq, Dow join.

Jobless claims surprise to the downside.

Markets slosh around in thin summer trading.

The S&P 500 posted a huge win on Thursday as emboldened investors rushed in to scoop up battered shares from technology to banking and beyond. The broad-based index logged a 2.3% increase for its best day since November 2022. The powerful rally was made complete when the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq joined, clocking out with advances of 1.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
Jobless claims for the week ending August 3 totaled 233,000, undershooting consensus views of 240,000. In other words, fewer people than expected filed for unemployment benefits. The data was enough to send stocks flying — jobless claims are used as a proxy for layoffs and this one report eased concerns over an economic recession and offered some hope that the dismal July jobs figure might be a one-off event, and not a trend.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Pair is within the  brackets of 142.100 & 148.200

USD/JPY: Dollar on Track for Fourth Straight Day of Gains as Carry Trade Almost Unwound
Yen pares gains to dollar.

Exchange rate tops ¥147.50.

Carry trade unwinding at 75%.

Popular carry trade has been unwinding, offering dollar bulls a chance to pocket some gains as yen moves to the downside.

The  USDJPY pair is treading volatile waters this week. On Thursday, the pair logged its third straight day of gains and was flaunting green Friday morning, en route for a fourth winning session. The popular forex trade kicked off the week with a massive selloff, which — added to the total drop over the past four weeks — nearly erased all dollar gains for the year. Earlier today, the pair jumped above ¥147.50 before sliding below the mark.

[Author]

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