[GVI Forex]

UPDATE: USD EXTENDING LOWS (EXCEPT USDCAD)

EURUSD trying to establish 1.1100+ for a run at 1,1135-60 after downside pause above 1.1092.

USDJPY breaking its overnight 145,84 low, 145.18 was Monday’s low. exposed if break holds. Equities opening a touch lower.

GBPUSD 1.3044 high still looms above

[SF Monedge]

(IF)  UsdJpy is to stall on the sell side today it would be around 145.60, if not then 145.20/30 area and you could hit a home run on a retrace.  The bias is short so it’s a technical risk play.

[GVI Forex]

Reuters poll: S&P 500 to end 2024 at 5600 (May poll 5302, currently 5600); sees 5900 be end-2025

Source: Newsquawk.com

[SF Monedge]

I could say something egomaniacal like “Euro is now officially a sell” but that would be an absurdly arrogant means of verbiage.  I wonder how many of them said something almost verbatim this morning in other forums.  When a CTA, I learned to be more realistic and responsible than that with one’s language.

[SF Monedge]

There is zero reason to be long UsdJpy today unless some unusual dominant fundamental or market activity condition suddenly arises.  Eu metrics are dominant on the buy side in some metrics but there is clear positioning in other metrics on outside months which shows sell side interest building so current levels are producing a pivot level as I type.  When this happens usually a sustained shift takes place lasting for one week minimum.

[SF Monedge]

Bloomberg – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month.

Has the FED has become a veiled political arm and not a FED?  Many are more than satisfied that is the case.  Regardless, the hidden figures alters the interest rate outlook and the presents the likelihood they are behind the curve in reducing rates which ultimately will cause highly chaotic economic results for quite some time.

[GVI Forex]

I do not know why my charts sometimes change the high/low. Now it is showing 1.1134 on a weekly (was showing 1.1137) but I will always go for the “50” level as a key one to watch..

Brief spike just now through 1.11 sets this as the pivotal level to watch (options level?) as that can often lead to being a top.

Has to hold 1.1092 or risk shifts to 1.1082.

[GVI Forex]

I do not know why my charts sometimes change the high/low. Now it is showing 1.1134 on a weekly (was showing 1.1137) but I will always go for the “50” level as a key one to watch..

Spike just now through 1.11 sets this as the pivotal level to watch (options level?)

[Mtl JP]

USD’s slide into the toilet is likely a reflection of player high expectations of upcoming Jerome yikyak on Friday about accommodating (assuaging?) them with a signal of sept Fed easing. The one element that may be in for some correcting is whether what-ever easing maybe gifted upon the market is a start of a process.

The degree of perception of any Powell dovishness will likely determine how much more the DLR will weaken or not.
Market is a bit too giddy about Fed’s easing expectations.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw euro 1.1150
= late dec ’23 high

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1095

bull run looks solid odds are for 1.1150 tag BUT

technically a some indicators looks stretched so a corection can not be ruled out as a surprise

bostic and barr yak later today

[GVI Forex]

USDCAD up after CPI

Resistance at 1.3641 and 1.3656 (former support)

[GVI Forex]

CANADAIAN CPI UP NEXT

SEE OUR ECONOMIC CALENDAR

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD trying to establish 1.30+ (last at 1.3010) for a run at 1.3044. Keep in mind that 1.3050 lies just above it.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Alun John, EMEA breaking news correspondent, finance and markets.

It’s been quite a recovery for the S&P 500 stock index since early August’s turmoil. The benchmark has risen for the past eight trading sessions, its longest streak of 2024, and is now just 1% off its mid-July record high.

Morning Bid: S&P 500 hunting cloud nine

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 15 MINUTE CHART

Source: The Amazing Trader

This is what I meant when I said use short-term charts to trade USDJPY (note Amazing Trader logic pointed down).

[GVI Forex]

“[Israel=Hamas ceasefire] negotiations scheduled in Cairo are expected to be postponed until the end of the week due to a lack of progress in contacts.”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israel official and dip;omats via Israeli Broadcasting Corp

Source: Newsquawk.com

XAUUSD extends record high above 2510. No sign of concern in other markets.

[GVI Forex]

BTC DAILY CHART – Not the focus

Keep an eye on the 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) daily mvas that are starting to converge. TO SUGGEST A RUN AT 70k, A MOIE ABOVE THE MVAS AND 65597 WOULD BE NEEDED.

Otherwise it will continue to flounder.

[GVI Forex]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – 2500-2510

Trying to break 2510 for 3rd day in a row.

Needs to hold 2483 to maintain the breakout

If geopolitics are a factor, the ceasefire talks this week are a potential event risk for both sides of the market…

In any case, 2500 will set the tone going forward.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – Key levels are clear

UP 7 out of 8 days coming into today but needs to establish 1.30+ to make a run at the 1.3044 high

So key levels are clear: 1.30 and 1.3044

On the downside, intra-day support 1.2972, key level is at 1.2937-40

[Author]

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