Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 21-25

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 21-25

Weekly FX Chart Analysis

The upcoming week has a light economic calendar, especially from the US in a forex market that seems to need news to create volatility. Arguing for consolidation, at least to start the week,  is a light economic calendar and that there are no key USD buy stops unless last week’s highs are taken out.

Let’s look at daily charts to see the broader picture.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

Trend down

While 1.0850 sets the intra-day tone, any move to the upside that fails to break 1.09 should be treated as a retracement.

On the other side, as we noted, 1.08 is one of those options strike levels that would likely be defended (low was 1.0811)

Levels to watch: 1.0873 (yellow line – 200 day mva) and 1.0881 breakdown level..

USDJPY DAILY CHART

Short-Term Trend up but…

Market got its taste of the long forgotten 150+ level but failed to maintain it.

To put 150+ in the rear-view mirror, back below 148.82 would be need to be broken.

To suggest this is more than a retracement of the broader 161.93-139.58, moves above the 100 and 200 daily mvas (blue and yellow lines)  are needed.

Weekly FX Chart Outlook – October 21-25

As you can see by this chart and the FIBOS below, there is a void of key nearby daily levels .

FIBIS: 139.58-150.30

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

Trend down but…

This one is easy:.

Watch 130, above it cools the downside, below it puts the 1.2974 low and 100 day mva (1.2956) at risk again.

Only back above 1.3100-05 would suggest the low is in/

USDCAD DAILY CHART

Trend: Up but below major level (1.3946)

The question for the CAD is how much an expected 50bps BoC rate cut on Wednesday is discounted.

Look for aa bid on dips ahead of the BoC where 1.38 will dictate the tone afterwards.

To expose the major 1.3946 level, 1.3838-50 would need to be firmly broken.

AUDUSD DAILY CHART

Trend down but above key level

Key level is clear at .6621, which is also around the 200 day mva. A long as AUFUSD stays above it the risk, the downside risk is limited.

On the upside, a move above 6758 would be needed to suggest a reversal of fortune.

XAUUSD DAILY CHART

Trend: UP

No reason to guess at a high until charts tell you to do so.

As noted, when in unchartered record high territory, the only resistance is the most recent high.

Look for support on dips as long as it trades above 22680-00

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