Will Forex and Stock Markets React to the Trump vs. Harris Television Debate?
It is hard to write about tonight’s U.S. presidential TV debate without expressing a political view but I will give it a try.
After all, the debate is more about show biz and appearances than an actual policy debate.
With that said, the debate matters on several levels with potential to be a watershed event depending on the outcome.
From an economic perspective, at least how the candidates have been campaigning, the contrast is striking
Kamela Harris is looking to build the economy from the middle class out, partly by giveaways, such as rewarding first time homebuyers.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, seems to favor a rehash of trickle down economics with tax cuts that benefit the higher income earners. Then there is his tariffs proposal but time will tell whether this is just a campaign ploy given how it is viewed as questionable economic policy (note, Congressional approval is not required). . .
The reality is that the makeup of the next Congress, whether one party wins both Houses or there is a split government will determine whether the next president can pass his/her agenda.
So, in any case, market reaction to the debate, if there is a clear winner, will give a hint which candidate the investment community thinks would be better for economy. In any case, it is 8 weeks until election day, plenty of time for markets to decide.
What they both have in common is neither appears to have any concerns about budget deficits as far as your eyes can see (despite Trump’s tariffs) but that is for a different discussion.
In any case, like any news event, it will be the reaction more than the event itself that will matter from a trader’s perspective, otherwise known as trading the news.
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