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Click to refresh 5 mins after data release to update clock
01/08/14 12:30 A US Jobless % con: 6.10% pre: 6.10%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Payrolls con: 230 pre: 288
01/08/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs con: n/a pre: n/a
01/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y con: 1.40% pre: 1.50%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc con: 0.40% pre: 0.40%
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Only 3 Days Left
Paris ib 11:47 GMT 08/01/2014
No worries. But it would make things easier for the rest of us. :-))

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 11:46 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
ib me Friday lazy.. beg ur pardon

Only 3 Days Left
Paris ib 11:41 GMT 08/01/2014
Deleted BBC report on MH17.

The MH17 Mystery

Only 3 Days Left
Paris ib 11:38 GMT 08/01/2014
JP do u think u could master the 'link' thing? Just wack it in where you see URL: with a name of some kind above.

JP's link

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 11:29 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
what a surprise !

so Nuland's guy yats stays on and IMF & world bank liberate $758 million to finance the military

interesting contrast with IMFs and WB's mission statements

Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
If you would like a copy of today's video, an important one, send me an EMAIL

July 2014 Australia PMI
GVI Forex john 10:29 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

Earlier News ALERT
50.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. 48.9 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

AU PMI above 50,..

london red 10:13 GMT 08/01/2014
eurnzd making fresh highs still supported by hourly trendline. fib at 15847 and 21 week at 15846 should cap into nfp.
nzdusd 200 day 50 fib 50% at 43, trendline 35. res 8505 8480

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:12 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
The GBP/USD pair maintained a soft tone with it probing below its 100-day moving average at 1.6859 after softer PMI Manufactuiring data. Cable's recent 1-year bull trend being challenged. Dealers noted that a move below could trigger a more medium-term bearish signal, EU Market Update: Already anxious investors await US payroll data

london red 09:43 GMT 08/01/2014
AHE average hourly earnings

thanks sf, best trades to you too

sd sf 09:39 GMT 08/01/2014
I agree with all of your thoughts -- from my side I trade vary little manually these days so I just monitor the positions more than anything and watch how the patterns develop.

eurusd wise I can see we are t/p selling @26/27/28 and probably 20 -30 points above that we would start getting short.

Anyways let us see how NFP plays out as right now it is bit tough to be initiating fresh positions.

BOL Today As Always >

HK Stephen 09:38 GMT 08/01/2014
Red what does AHE mean?

london red 09:29 GMT 08/01/2014
sf, eurusd is an interesting one. heard a lot about base building but no one is sticking their neck out yet. you can argue market is very short and few left to sell but crosses have been supporting this one. so while you can argue for a bounce you can also argue for a fall in this pair as cross rallies has pulled the basket as a whole higher. time will tell.
reaction to nfp will be interesting. they should still sell a miss as long as its c. 200k. and as long at 13445/50 caps. you can see market buying dollar dips until we get a few misses in a row. probably needs a +260 nfp to test barrier at 3350. AHE take on added importance today as well. if we dont get higher than 0.2 might be difficult to sustain dollar gains into close.

AceTrader Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT 08/01/2014

01 Aug 2014 08:00GMT

EUR/USD - ... Euro languishes abv Wed's 8-1/2 month trough of 1.3366 in European morning. Price showed muted reaction to release of Markit Jul mfg PMI fm Italy, France, Germany & the EZ. The actual readings came in below market consensus (except France, Jul was 47.8 vs forecast of 47.8).

The lack of intra-day price swings in early European morning suggest further range trading wud continue as traders are keeping their powder dry until release of the key U.S. payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Offers are reported at 1.3495/05 with some stops abv there, then more offers are tipped at 1.3420/30. On the downside, some bids are touted at 1.3370-60 with continued market chatter of an option barrier at 1.3350, then stops are reported below there. Until the U.S. jobs report is out, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

Earlier, with release of Markit Mfg PMI of several major countries in the EZ due out shortly, Reuters reported that inflationary pressures in the euro zone have risen to a 27-month high, suggesting the ECB's efforts to fend off deflation are working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Fri.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), rose to 96.7 in June from April's 96.2.

Annual inflation in the euro zone fell to just 0.4% in Jul, its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, official data showed on Thur. Therefore, most traders wud take this reading with a pinch of salt !

PAR 09:26 GMT 08/01/2014
MSCI announced today the launch of new composite indexes that exclude Russia,such as MSCI ACWI ex Russia and MSCI Emerging Markets ex Russia

Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Im looking more at S&P futures which have turned south in the past hour or so. (-8.5).

The USDJPY is trading about flat and is showing no correlation to the S&P.

I'm wondering if all this hysteria about a Fed tightening being fueled by the script readers in the media has gotten completely out of hand. They have become another version of the Weather Channel.

Personally, I feel a 25 to 100bp increase in the cost of money (from zero) over the next two years is not going to change a thing.

sd sf 09:15 GMT 08/01/2014
thanks Red - it is just the GBP model taking profit from this morning - based purely on the typical range we see basically.

overall it has only been marginally profitable due to getting stopped a lot so can't argue with some decent points on the day.

the only thing we have on the books now is some eurusd long... everything else has been executed in the CAD and x CAD stuff.

China and European PMI Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report
GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income

Monthly U.S. employment data, Manufacturing PMIs and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured today. A slew of final PMI reports have been released with Chinese data mixed. European PMIs were soft to mixed while UK manufacturing PMI data saw a major miss.

China and European PMI Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report

london red 09:07 GMT 08/01/2014
sf, while 40 caps, risk to 76.4 fib at 16810. youd fancy that to support into nfp if seen. but sellers appeared at 40 and of course likely at the 100 day if seen pre nfp.
up to now eurgbp has retraced well off every res. worth watching at 55/60 as a failure to pull back to 40 suggests an acceleration of uptrend with a risk of 80 on a break today.

london red 09:04 GMT 08/01/2014
PAR if 1894-1900 doesnt yield a bounce to abv 1932 then we can look at a lot lower.
we trade in a market where moves are hyper accelerated. i refer back to goldmans statement a few months back that when the bond market starts pricing in a rate rise, historically it tends to happen (the bulk) of the move, over a period of a couple of months. thats a big move in a short space of time. i didnt see any reference to stocks, but possibly you could work a similar time frame.

Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Equity markets have sold off following the U.S. lead from yesterday. Markets remain in a mixed risk posture as credit markets in the U.S. have already priced in a Fed policy tightening. There is now a lot of room for disappointment on weaker than U.S,  jobs data in the months ahead  EURUSD is holding just below 1.3400.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. EZ 10-yr 1.18%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.62%  0bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.58%, +2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are weaker. . U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

sd sf 08:57 GMT 08/01/2014
just seeing t/p buying in the GBP 36/37/38

ntg more than estimated range I imagine.

Paris ib 08:57 GMT 08/01/2014
So then it is a mini crash !

Margin Debt

PAR 08:52 GMT 08/01/2014
A 2% correction is not a mini crash , unless you are heavily margine.

Day's Trades
london red 08:38 GMT 08/01/2014
pmi misses 100 day ma at 58 now caps into nfp. 40 flash low was supp.
close below 100 day brings 168-167 in play.

July 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 08:37 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
U.K. Manufacturing PMI much weaker than forecast. Supports our ecent view that UK might be starting to slow ...

July 2014 Japan final PM
GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. Second-tier release but revised lower...

July 2014 Manufacturing PMI
GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile


55.4 vs. 57.2 exp. vs. 57.5 (r 57.2) prev.

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July 2014 Japan final PM
GVI Forex john 08:28 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

50.5 vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 51.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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Is it safe?
Mtl JP 08:27 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
dc CB 00:52 for an answer to your headline Q see PAR's 07:49 post

July 2014 China PMI's
GVI Forex john 08:26 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
China PMIs mixed.

Day's Trades
london red 08:23 GMT 08/01/2014
eurgbp 21 day 7923 10 day 7913. res 40 and 55/60

July 2014 China PMI's
GVI Forex john 08:21 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

NBS: 51.7 vs. 51.3 exp vs. 51.0 prev.
HSBC: 51.7 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 52.0 flash

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Day's Trades
london red 08:09 GMT 08/01/2014
uk manf pmi due up at bottom of hour. f/c are mixed but circled around 57.2. we are currently in a dollar market so use any bounce in pmi to 58 to sell cable. fib at 83 may give on a better number but 80 day ema at 16909 should cap any rally into the non farms this afta. whatever the number cable will be under pressure and 100 day is at risk again today.

July 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
GVI Forex john 08:09 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. Eurozone and, Germany revised down from flash estimates. France Revised higher. Broadly Europe has gone flat?..

July 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile


51.8 vs. 51.9 (flash) exp. vs. 51.9
47.8 vs. 47.6 (flash) exp. vs. 47.6
52.4 vs. 52.9 (flash) exp. vs. 52.9

Markit PMI Press Release

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PAR 07:55 GMT 08/01/2014
French manufacturing deteriorates further.

PAR 07:49 GMT 08/01/2014
SBERBANK says financial sanctions against Russia undermining the foundations of the global financial system.

Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 06:41 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
Next 3 Trade days
Expected High and Lows

Exp High Exp Low
1.3388 1.3357 --> today
1.3363 1.3335
1.3336 1.3296

Exp High Exp Low
1.6917 1.6856
1.6896 1.6846
1.6851 1.6800

Exp High Exp Low
103.26 102.59
103.11 102.58
102.70 102.26

Exp High Exp Low
1302.09 1284.28
1295.79 1285.04
1282.42 1268.62

Exp High Exp Low
174.41 173.48
173.71 173.15
172.68 172.04

Exp High Exp Low
138.11 137.67
137.38 136.93
136.68 136.20

GVI Forex Blog 05:07 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
(CN) CHINA JULY FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 52.0E (18-month high) - (CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 51.4E (5th consecutive rise; highest since Apr 2012) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 PPI Q/Q Asian Market Update: China PMIs mixed as Asia digests the sharp decline on Wall St - Source

GVI Forex Blog 04:01 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
The exact reason for the mini crash in the US market last night is largely unknown. From the

Morning Briefing : 01-Aug-2014 -0400 GMT

AceTrader Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT 08/01/2014

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

01 Aug 2014 02:22GMT

China July's final HSBC Mfg PMI came in at 51.7 vs previous preliminary reading of 52.0.

Reuters reported China's vast factory sector posted its strongest growth in 18 months in Jul as new orders surged to multi-month highs, a private survey showed on Friday, adding to signs the economy is regaining momentum after a flurry of govt. stimulus measures.

The HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 last month, up from June's 50.7 but slightly below a preliminary reading of 52.

Still, July's reading is the best outcome since January 2013. Output and total new orders both rose at the strongest rates since March 2013, while new export work increased at the 2nd-fastest pace in more than 3-1/2 years.

Friday will see the release of China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:16 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile

Is it safe?
dc CB 00:52 GMT 08/01/2014
The stock market ended July with the sharpest decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index since April, while the Dow Jones industrial index fell more than 300 points, enough to eliminate all of its gains for the year.
The reasons for the losses on Thursday were not entirely clear.

“I think it’s healthy and normal at this stage of the monetary cycle,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “After the run-up in the market we’ve had until now, I’d expect that we’d have a real correction. Whether this is the beginning of one, I don’t know, but I think it would be very healthy to have one. And a decline like this one? It’s O.K. to have it.”

Sometimes market declines are simply irrational, even if they’re not unexpected, said Richard Bernstein, formerly the chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch and now the proprietor of his own firm and a fund manager for Eaton Vance.

“People have heard a lot about the possibility that we’re on the precipice of a correction, and they’ve gotten a little jittery,” he said. “That happens sometimes when there’s a confluence of geopolitical and economic factors, and people are on edge. But I’ve been bullish and I remain so. We’ll just have to find out in the weeks ahead who’s right and who’s wrong.

Markets End July in Dive, but Analysts Are Upbeat

Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:19 GMT 08/01/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar index hovers near 10-month peak after rally

* Nonfarm payrolls data next major focus

* China PMI to take centre stage in Asia

FOREX-Dollar pauses near highs ahead of jobs data

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 22:56 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
US and European equities fell sharply overnight. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 1.7%, while the S&P500 is currently down 1.6%, the latter posting its largest one-day fall since April. There was no single and obvious catalyst; geopolitical factors, fear of Fed tightening, Portuguese banking sector concerns, Argentina's default, and profit-taking all probably in the mix.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile

July 31, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

  • Far East: JP, CN PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs.
  • North America: US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Univ of Michigan, Construction Spending, COT.

sd sf 21:38 GMT 07/31/2014
EurCad + GbpCad + $Cad

ntg but offers this morning - makes sense as into the upper end of this weeks range.

offers at 88 89 90 atm

bids @80/81/82 some stops @1.3413

bit mixed tbh - all depends on the NFP - as to whether Yellen wins or the market wins.

EUR Heat Map
Mtl JP 21:25 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile

suggest to forget the euro focus for a bit
it is the dollar that appears bid
against Gold
against crude
against gbp
against the euro
Bottom Line:
usdx up to 81.50

Only 3 Days Left
Mtl JP 21:14 GMT 07/31/2014  - My Profile
Jul 31, 2014 KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's parliament rejected Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk's resignation on Thursday and finally passed legislation he said was needed to finance an army offensive against a separatist rebellion in the east and avert a national default on its debts. ../.
1) "they" reject his resignation and the fool sticks around
2) financing an army = averting a national debt default. doubly impressive
3) now the so-called rebels know where the serpent's head is.

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