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27/02/17 13:30 B US D/G ex-trans con: 0.50% pre: 0.50%
27/02/17 13:30 B US Dur Goods con: 1.60% pre: -0.50%
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 27 February - 03 March 2017
Amsterdam NordFX 17:06 GMT 02/26/2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that, when giving the medium-term forecast more than 70% of analysts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR/USD. They were actively supported by trend indicators and oscillators on D1. As for the weekly forecast, according to graphical analysis, the pair was expected to once again test the minimum at the level of 1.0500, and then turn around and start a sharp ascent. Those traders who made use of these findings were able to get a good profit. Exactly by the middle of the week the pair found the local bottom at 1.0493, which was followed by its northwards rebound. However, the pair did not reach the expected horizon of 1.0850, but those 125 points, for which it went up, managed to deliver the bulls a significant profit;

- The forecast for GBP/USD warned that if the pair failed to overcome the support at the centre line of the large-scale side corridor, where it had been residing since October 2016, its rebound to the resistance at 1.2550 was possible. Things played out exactly like that: after failing in several attempts to break the level of 1.2400, the pair rose and spent the first half of Friday in the 1.2540-1.2565 area, before retreating to the Pivot Point of the last three weeks in the area of 1.2450;

- The opinions of analysts and indicators about the future of USD/JPY radically diverged last week. If the former had expected the pair to rise, the latter were determined that it would fall. Both appeared to be right. At first, the pair rose by 100 points. It then proceeded to drop by 165 points, returning to the values of the end of January/ beginning of February this year and vindicating the ambiguity of the latest forecasts in the process;

- USD/CHF. As is often the case, last week this pair chose not to play its own "game" and simply mirrored the behaviour of the EUR/USD, confirming the confidence of the market that the dollar will strengthen. As a result, by the middle of the week the pair reached a height of 1.0140, after which the bulls’ strength weakened and it completed the week’s session near the strong support level of 1.0075, which is easily visible on the D1 and W1 charts.

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- 75% of experts believe that EUR/USD will fall to the 1.0340 zone, where it had already been in December 2016, if not next week then certainly in March. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 agree with this forecast. As for short-term forecasts, the oscillators on H4 have taken a neutral position, and graphical analysis indicates a possible temporary rise to the resistance of 1.0680;

- GBP/USD. 65% of analysts are still siding with the bears here. According to their forecast, the pair still has to fall to the lower boundary of a five-month side corridor at 1.1985-1.2720. As for graphical analysis, it says that, seeing as the pair has failed to break through the centre line of the channel, it may now spend some time oscillating in the 1.2400-1.2720 range, after which it will still end up rushing to the January lows;

- It is clear that, in predicting the future of USD/JPY, all indicators point to the south. The main support is in the area of 111.60. However, the opinion of 70% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 is strictly opposite to the above. According to them, the pair should rise to the level of 114.00, before possibly ascending even higher to 115.60;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 70% of experts and 85% of indicators vote for the bulls’ victory and the growth of the pair to the 1.0150-1.0180 area. An alternative point of view is represented by graphical analysis, according to which, the pair is expected to move laterally dominated by bearish sentiment in the coming days, before gradually descending to 1.0000, or, potentially, even lower to the support at 0.9965.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

Monday Trading Ideas
GVI Trading john bland 16:39 GMT 02/26/2017  - My Profile
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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--

EUR symbol
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy.
Odds for one 25bp rate hike as of the June 17, 2017 meeting are now 108% (112%). Odds for a March Hike are 40% (38%).

Spot EURUSD: 1.0558
Pivot Point: 1.0870

20-day avg: 1.0657
200-day avg: 1.0939

Stealing Pips Strategies
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:47 GMT 02/26/2017  - My Profile

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Gates foundation - there are local solutions at global scale with them
Israel Dil 05:43 GMT 02/26/2017
non political and still capable to handle politicians. Warren Buffet could deliver his fortune into many hands, that's the ones he choose!

He is great, just great!
Israel Dil 05:35 GMT 02/26/2017
Buy Gold
Entry: Trump Target: Stop: another president

he gave a clear sign about his mindset: “To the victor belong the spoils,”

who's going to be the victim of the bully president and his lunatic circles? top nuclear arsenal, for free? tax cuts and regulations wipe-off, also at no cost?

with president Trump, we must repeat what every 5 y/o knows, magic is cheating... Trump promises magics.

He is great, just great!
Dillon AL 02:46 GMT 02/26/2017  - My Profile

Trump had better be careful cos on Feb 1st the low point vs Jan 20 it started to rise again.
Suggest the only reason for the debt drop is the Government hiring freeze he imposed on day 1

He is great, just great!
Brisbane Flip 00:29 GMT 02/26/2017  - My Profile
Sieg Heil

He is great, just great!
HK RF@ 20:19 GMT 02/25/2017

Trump cuts US debt by $12bn in his first month in office, accuses media of ‘not reporting’ it.

Trump cuts US debt by $12bn in his first month in office, accuses media of ‘not reporting’ it

Post Obama and about time
nw kw 18:21 GMT 02/25/2017
must be oil and fed?

Post Obama and about time
nw kw 18:16 GMT 02/25/2017
shorts funds, com. banks long, crowed. to big or its inverted im on cfd.

Post Obama and about time
GVI Trading john bland 16:33 GMT 02/25/2017  - My Profile
kw- Not sure what you mean by two-way bond fight bets. Please explain. tia

Post Obama and about time
nw kw 15:55 GMT 02/25/2017
bond market still has 2 way aggressive bank fight bets .

tax payers and national resources spent
nw kw 15:11 GMT 02/25/2017
Fire in the sky? Alien takeover? Just plain weird science?
5% 5 weeks drop in consumption cargass. fake or not?,, next?

tax payers and national resources spent
Israel Dil 15:05 GMT 02/25/2017
if it's not for nothing than who is the enemy?

Europe marches to life under Russian rule, isn't that the bottom line? impact on the EUR?

Russian Defense Minister Says@ The Duma His Military Has Tested 162 Weapons In Syria

Amazing Trader And Commitment Of Traders EURUSD Ideas for 24 February 2017
GVI Forex Blog 12:36 GMT 02/25/2017  - My Profile
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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts are regularly updated on your systems

EUR symbol

We continue to say that short-term trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is an imperfect, but useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would like more frequent and prcise readings, but we can live with the general data for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they in big or small

Amazing Trader And Commitment Of Traders EURUSD Ideas for 24 February 2017

Post Obama and about time
dc CB 21:46 GMT 02/24/2017
Paris ib 18:48 GMT
I didn't use to like Tucker Carlson but I have changed my mind.

you have no idea, luckily you live in Paree where they (reportably) understand the sexuality.

NYC - via Mayor Bill de Blasio - "You may be one of 31 recognized genders"

Another reason why Donald Trump got elected as well as the number of his detractors.

Lionel spells it out

Fed Minutes Never Fail To Move The Markets
GVI Forex Blog 21:23 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile

John M. Bland, MBA

FOMC Minutes Impact Markets But Send No Clear Signals The Fed releases the Minutes of each policy board meeting three weeks following each decision. One would think that after its policy statement, and quarterly, a press conference, that they would say nothing new. However, Fed Chair Yellen reserves the right to include additional topics discussed at the meeting that had not otherwise been released. This means that the Fed has the ability to tweak the Minutes and bring up-to-date by including additional items and thus to "shape" the message sent to the markets.

Markets had a little indigestion trying to digest the latest Minutes this week...

Fed Minutes Never Fail To Move The Markets

Commitment Of Traders Report for 24 February 2017
dc CB 21:02 GMT 02/24/2017
Uff Da
Elon Musk? Driverless Electric Uber cars? Hybrids? Our duty as Liberals to save gas?

Sell sell sell forward

Commitment Of Traders Report for 24 February 2017
Livingston nh 20:55 GMT 02/24/2017
Who will save the oil bulls?

Friday Trading Ideas
Livingston nh 20:52 GMT 02/24/2017
CB - simple way to test the "market" is to disavow the no sales of Treasurys // all of this awaits the Trump Fed

Commitment Of Traders Report for 24 February 2017
GVI Trading john bland 20:50 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Net EUR JPY COT Positions

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Net GBP and CHF COT Positions

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Net AUD and CAD COT Positions

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Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions

Click on chart for COT Details

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Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 20:50 GMT 02/24/2017
Dear Justin Trudeau


Friday Trading Ideas
Livingston nh 20:49 GMT 02/24/2017
I said Bulls die by the Fed -- this BULL may require a skilled Matador -- just keeps rolling along

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 20:46 GMT 02/24/2017
dc CB 19:21 GMT
be interested to see this weeks COT in the 5 and the 10 (as of Tues 21st)

5Y still looking mighty short

10 too.

recipe for a massacree

Friday Trading Ideas
Livingston nh 20:46 GMT 02/24/2017
JP - "COLD TURKEY" time -- clear out the weaklings

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 20:32 GMT 02/24/2017
“Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel”

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 20:30 GMT 02/24/2017

dc CB 19:55 GMT
As a corollary: something to shudder your bones - tin foil hats on please

Around noon today, retail stocks jumped after Axios reported that Trump's econ advisor Gary Cohn was opposing a House version of the Border Adjustment Tax, giving hope to retailers who were battered following yesterday's Reuters interview in which Trump said that he supports "some form" of border tax.

The result, as we observed earlier, was a mirror image of yesterday's retail selloff, "as now the market no longer has to fear Trump's tweets, but his staggering position reversals, now coming inside the span of a day."

White House Denies Axios' Report Which Denied Reuters Report About Trump's Border Tax

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 24 February 2017
GVI Forex Blog 20:23 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile

forex rate database image

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for more than a dozen currency pairs for over seventeen years of data in an Excel spreadsheet format

Chart Points: Free Forex Database For 24 February 2017

Post Obama and about time
dc CB 20:12 GMT 02/24/2017
You can't make this stuff up. What a sheitshow.
Hitler? Mussolini? pick your DICKtator. all they will talk about this weekend every hour on the hour.

CNN's political reporter Sara Murray has confirmed that CNN has been blocked from attending a White House press briefing this morning. Other reports note that The New York Times, LA Times, and Politico were also blocked. ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX were allowed in but AP and Time have boycotted the event.

White House Bans CNN, NYT, Others From Participating In Media Briefing

Risk-Off Trade Fuels A Run Into Fixed Income Markets. Forex Markets Are Mixed
GVI Forex Blog 20:00 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile

U.S. equity markets are ending broadly weaker in late Friday pre-weekend trading. European and Asian markets closed mostly lower earlier in the day. Fixed income yields closed lower. In forex trade, USD is ending mixed. The EUR is mixed on its crosses.

Table of Key Current Market Rates

Risk-Off Trade Fuels A Run Into Fixed Income Markets. Forex Markets Are Mixed

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 19:55 GMT 02/24/2017
because Yellen is a Figurehead Tool, who can be replaced one way or another, who works for the TBTF Banks that Own the FED. Those banks are way way way way overleveraged and if interest rates ever returned to normal(?), like where the average Joe could get a return on their capital, they would Blow Up.

As a corollary: something to shudder your bones - tin foil hats on please

With all the players on the Trump Team being from Goldman, they are in the catbird seat and have to power to decimate any rival and have the potential to displace Jamie Dimon and JPM as the Top Dog - Presidents Banker. They make the policy, they hold the winning side of the washout.


Friday Trading Ideas
Mtl JP 19:51 GMT 02/24/2017
the fin market is in other words to "fragile" very temper tantrum-ish, weaning off free n accessible money has never been an easy thing. someone has made that very clear to janet.

Friday Trading Ideas
Mtl JP 19:46 GMT 02/24/2017
nh exactly beause the market is "fragile" (market is not economy)

Friday Trading Ideas
Livingston nh 19:41 GMT 02/24/2017
There are over 61.5 bio in Treasury securities rolling off in the next 3 months -- Yellen will reinvest these proceeds // WHY 10 years after the crisis of competence are we still screwing around with the "fragile markets"?

Post Obama and about time
dc CB 19:33 GMT 02/24/2017

It's not Post Obama. There are plenty of Obamaites entrenched and doing their best to screw things up. The entire Press Corps is still Major AntiTrump.

the latest leak, while not terribly damaging to the Trump administration, certainly wins the award for "Most Ironic."

Earlier this week on February 20th, the State Department's acting legal adviser, Richard Visek, prepared a four-page memo for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, entitled “SBU: Protecting Privileged Information”, which warned of the dangers of leaking by State Department employees. Ironically, that memo was promptly leaked to Josh Rogin of the Washington Post who subsequently penned an article bragging about his latest intelligence breach.

State Department Writes Anti-Leak Memo... Which Quickly Leaks To The Washington Post

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 19:21 GMT 02/24/2017
What happened to the 2.50% 10-yr??

in the famous words: "I'll be back"

be interested to see this weeks COT in the 5 and the 10 (as of Tues 21st)

Friday Trading Ideas
Livingston nh 19:20 GMT 02/24/2017
John - there is no real yield available -- Fed keeps Treasurys off the market // SF Pres Williams was on again this week about the R* -- theorists vs reality // Yellen still on about the wonderful IOER

They need to get outta the way

Friday Trading Ideas
GVI Trading john bland 19:11 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
These interest rate markets do not have the feel of fast growing economies. What happened to the 2.50% 10-yr??

Post Obama and about time
Paris ib 18:48 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
I didn't use to like Tucker Carlson but I have changed my mind.

Carlson cleans up

Le Pen's newest challenger
Paris ib 18:38 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
CB - good grief the last thing Europe needs is another smiley face with a globalist agenda. Obama is all yours. :-)

Breaking News
GVI Trading john bland 18:18 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
Oil rigs continue to rise. U.S. oil rigs are up 202 yr/yr.

Breaking News
GVI Trading john bland 18:16 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 754 vs. 751 (+3) prev.
Oil: 602 vs. 597 (+5)

Total 341 vs. 331 (+10)

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Le Pen's newest challenger
dc CB 17:36 GMT 02/24/2017
a group of frightened liberal protesters have decided to back a relatively surprising, if impossible, presidential candidate in 2017

visit their website to sign a petition to convince Obama to enter the race. They figure that 1 million signatures should do the trick.

French Voters Call On Obama To Run For President To "Give French People Hope"

Le Pen's newest challenger
dc CB 17:28 GMT 02/24/2017

seen any of these around.
Guess that Obama can't stand retirement. LOL

Le Pen SURGES to lead in latest poll as voters serve 'a slap in the face' to establishment

Why Obama? "Because he has the best resume in the world for the job,"

Friday Trading Ideas
dc CB 17:22 GMT 02/24/2017
large short positions in the rolling over March Treas futures contracts. As it moves into delivery period ...if you are short you sold you must deliver the actual.

Ides of March Meeting
Paris ib 17:12 GMT 02/24/2017  - My Profile
Beware the Ides of March. Somehow I think the FOMC has not good choices on March 15. Do nothing: spook the market. Do something: spook the market.

Can't see what the good choice would be here.

Limbo land for the most part till then.

Friday Trading Ideas
Mtl JP 17:04 GMT 02/24/2017
as the FED gang is toying w/players players r toying w/ the FED gang

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Trading Ideas for 24 Feb 2017

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
24 Feb Fri
13:30 CA- CPI
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final Univ of Mich Survey

13 Feb Mon
No Major Data
27 Feb Mon
13:30 US- Durable Goods
28 Feb Tues
07:00 DE- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
15:30 US- EIA Crude
1 Mar Wed
All Day- final Mfg PMIs
08:55 DE- Jobless
13:30 US- PCE Deflator
15:00 CA- Bank of Canada Decision
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Beige Book
2 Mar Thu
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
23:30 JP- CPI
3 Mar Fri
All-Day SVC PMIs

Forex Trading Outlook

  • Markets are heading into the weekend with a risk-off posture. Worries about European elections over the next several weeks appear to be fading for the moment. On the other hand, all the hysteria about the Trump Presidency has begun to abate. The new administration is starting to learn that the U.S. political system with its checcks and balances is designed constitutionally to be slow to change.

  • Some have been pushing the date for a Fed rate hike back to May. I don't see much of asentiment shift in Fed Funds futures. I still feel the Fed hikes in March barring a significantly weaker than expected February jobs report on March 10. The FOMC Minutes left open the door to the RISK of a Rate hike as early as the March 15 FOMC ("fairly soon"). No clear signal was sent. The Fed would like to embark on a policy "normalization". Some have trouble believing they have the courage to go through with a rate hike. For Yellen to build market credibility, she should hike rates soon. Fed Funds futures odds for a March Fed rate hike are only 38% (34%), suggesting they are skeptical. Markets now place the odds for rate hikes by June at 112% (116%).

  • On top of the Fed muddle, investors have begun to worry about the risk from key leadership elections in Europe over the rest of the year. Many worry about the possibility of a swing to right as has been seen in the U.K. (Brexit) and U.S. (Trump). Such could be a challenge to the status quo in the EU.

  • John M. Bland, MBA

    Risf-Off Early in Equities Early Friday. Bond Yields Broadly Lower on 24 Feb 2017

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated


    Bank Of China Actions To Stabilize the Yuan Weigh on the USD

    Diary of My Forex Day


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