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Global-View Trading Systems
Mtl JP 15:00 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
euro trgt 1.2250

AUD
HK RF@ 14:55 GMT 12/19/2014


Target at 0.8050 seems a no brainer, but may not happen tonight.

Global-View Trading Systems
Mtl JP 14:55 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
are we short now - against 35/47 ?

Behind the Scenes
dc CB 14:54 GMT 12/19/2014
Behind the Scenes?
Not so much anymore.

US stocks explode to their greatest back-to-back gains in almost six years. So it is perhaps ironic that no more mainstream media publication than USA Today has finally realised, there are no fundamentals anymore...

"Fed To The Rescue" - The Plunge Protection Team Makes The Front Page


Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 14:53 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
They triggered the EURUSD stops @ 1.2300.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
jkt abel 14:38 GMT 12/19/2014
basically i am still with sell euro, buy usdjpy theme for reminder of this year
looks like revisit 121/122 is inevitable for usdjpy, then in 2015 we may finally have some bigger fall

eurusd
Mtl JP 14:24 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
two FED yakkers on deck today
dove Evans at top of the hour

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Reminder 1.2301 Pivot can also serve as a resistance TARGET when current HOD is 1.2298 especially on a thin Friday!

eurusd
GVI Forex john 14:15 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
viies - Great minds think alike!

eurusd
Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT 12/19/2014
10 am NYC time big put option expires with strike at 1,2300. 3,2bio euros. could it be magnet for next 45 minutes?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
I heard something on FX Squawk a little while ago about option expiries above 1.2300 @ 10:00 EST (15:00 GMT USD 10bln). Tempting target.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Mtl JP 13:59 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
discuss.. watch.. discuss...

personally prefer actionable parametered trade and trade tactics ideas.
also verbs in future tense (my x-mass wish)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 13:53 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
As I said it depends on how much is factored in beforehand but with QE, EUR will be going lower even if there is a buy the fact reaction. I have a long standing target at 1.2040 as per my videos.

By contrast, USDJPY spiked higher and stayed bid after latest BoJ QE because it came as a surprise.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
jkt abel 13:48 GMT 12/19/2014
we have not had monthly closing below 1000 DEMA for many many years (more than 10 years), so unless that is seen, i think we could have low 1.1850-1.1970 before a quick and furious turnaround IMO if 1.20 is to be challenged like many want to see

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
jkt abel 13:44 GMT 12/19/2014
JM, could be a case of buy rumours, sell fact thing with ECB QE
so if 1.15 is to be seen, it will be before the actual QE is carried out we will have been trading with that theme

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Canada: Retail Sales mixed vs. estimates.
Canada Charts


BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Canada Data Charts

Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI softer than expected.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 13:39 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
IB, depends on how much is factored in but QE increases supply of a currency and is a negative. I have see forecasts of 1.15 if ECB undertakes QE.

Couple that with a diverging US monetary policy and risk is clear.

We can discuss this further before the next ECB meeting.

Right now anyone trading is at the mercy of pre-holiday flows.

EURUSD res, 1.2297/37/43 (one hour trendline)/50-55

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 13:34 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JM - FWIW a decision on QE in Europe would be something to fade (like the Yellen press conference). Say they make the decision (not that likely) nothing will happen immediately. Meanwhile the positive trade and current account surpluses will remain net positives for the Euro. Any sell off in the Euro should be viewed as a buying opportunity because what counts is the performance of external accounts. The USD is likely to suffer because Japan doesn't have an external surplus to recycle any more and is in fact (despite the rhetoric) actually repatriating out of the U.S. - and because there will be a whole lot less Petro dollars to recycle. So you have yields creeping higher which will increase the cost of funding existing debt. I don't see this U.S. economic recovery happening and Yellen will keep talking the talk without walking the walk. You can't do that forever.

JP - barf underway.

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Retail Sales October 2014
Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT
Headline 0.0%: vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
X-Autos: +0.20% vs.+0.20% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.


RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

BREAKING NEWS
GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices November 2014
Canada Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
yy: +2.10% vs. n/a exp. vs. +2.30% prev.
Headline
mm: -0.40% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
jkt abel 13:30 GMT 12/19/2014
yeah, next week all ready for holiday, time to take profits and zip the bag for holiday, this has been a very eventful and wonderful trading year

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 13:27 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
ib, I am not looking to debate but at this time of year, it is a good time to look ahead.

With that said, we are now in pre-holiday trading and this has more to do with what has to be done than putting on new positions.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 13:22 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JM - we can argue the ins and outs of a weaker currency and if QE will actually help weaken the currency. So what? What we know is that Draghi is pushing for it and Germany and some other board members are against. I am against. In any case I think strong external accounts will likely see the Euro rally in 2015. QE might be a blip if Draghi gets it through but the fundamentals don't suggest much downside from here. Say we had QE and a blip down, what would that mean? Stronger external accounts which do what? Push a currency up. So you get a blip down in order to get a rally in the currency? What a pointless exercise.

USD/JPY is more important for the USD as a whole. And don't buy into the need to get headline inflation to 2%. What a load of policy nonsense that is.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 13:11 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
If you can't stimulate internal demand then the only place to get it is from external sources. It is also a way to boost inflation.

The issue in the EZ is that while Germany may not need a weaker currency, it would help the peripheral members.

This is not a one size fits all economy.

This is No the Onion
dc CB 13:09 GMT 12/19/2014
U.S. to sell final $1.25 billion shares of Ally Financial from bailout. (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department will sell its remaining 54.9 million shares of Ally Financial Inc (ALLY.N) acquired under the government's bailout of the auto lender, Ally said on Thursday.

AND

Ally Financial Gets Subpoena Related to Subprime Automotive Finance (WSJ)
a subpoena from the U.S. Justice Department asking for information related to the bank’s subprime automotive finance lending practices, the bank said Thursday.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 13:02 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Jay - Europe already runs a trade and current account surplus with the rest of the world. It is not external demand that is the problem and a devaluation will not 'solve' anything. What Europe needs to do is to reduce the bureaucratic impediments to growth and get good governance. How likely? Not very. But the argument in favour of a weaker Euro just doesn't fly.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:00 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
If you look back on my monthly newletters, I have been saying since the start of the year that given fiscal restraints, EZ needs a weaker EUR as there is no other place to get stimulus. In the world of low inflation, this is a no brainer and why we have a currency war.

If it wasn't for Germany, the ECB would already be doing QE and EURUSD would be south of 1.20 with talk of parity. If the goal is to stimulate via a weaker currency, why not just talk it down rather than going through the QE process. All QE seems to do is inflate financial assets and potential bubbles. This is why central banks can stop QE but never unwind it.

With that said, looming QE risk should keep a cap on the EURUSD upside.

Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile


Equity, Oil (wti) and Gold Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point

tables
. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System






CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 12:49 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JP - looks like the barf bag will be needed. :-)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 12:48 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
CB - exactly. Getting bailed in is a major concern. If people want to riot in the streets they should be rioting about that. Most people don't even know what happened at the G20.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
dc CB 12:46 GMT 12/19/2014
It is an expression about fear and about where to park "money"

that's exactly right. These days it's - where to put you cash (and there is soooo much of it-- so it won't get "bailed in". Forget about negative interest rates, you just want it back when you need it. Then there is the added benefit of being able to re-hypothicate those 10Y issues, so double, triple, quadruple, the original mound....and then buy more 10s and etc.

That's how the miracle of Christmas 2014 is made.

emini


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 12:45 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JM - sure. That said if China has 'asked' the U.S. to call off the attack dogs, then it wouldn't take much to see the 'crisis' end. It's what happens at the margin that count. The attack on the Ruble was obviously a speculative attack, which means positions will have to be closed eventually so there is a lot of upside for the Ruble, at which point there would be no 'crisis' except that created by the fall in the price of OIL (which again may or may not be speculative in nature). Right now there is a bit of a dust storm so it's hard to work out what the reality of the situation actually is.

ZeroHedge on the China bailout of Russia


Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 12:44 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
EURUSD
Pivot 1.2301 (1.2298 HOD)
use 1.2300 area (above) as daily breakout level.
S1 1.2248 (1.2253 LOD) this level has been working so far as well.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Mtl JP 12:43 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JM 12:41 / the CB powers prefer you spend it , lol

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 12:41 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JP, whatever the reason, I would rather park money at a negative rate than lend it for 10 years at 0.6%

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 12:40 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
IB, that swap line is only $24 bln.

Russia also has $400+ bln in reserves but does not want to piss them away.

It is much harder to defend your currency than to intervene the other way.


Global-View Trading Systems
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile


EUR and USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 12:37 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
JM - yeah it's a shocking joke. Germany doesn't have a deficit though at this point. And they have this huge current account and trade surplus. And with all the doom and gloom we see in the press (war, terrorism, trade wars, currency wars, economic gloom.... yada, yada, yada). There has been a genuine move to 'safe assets'. Until the press ease up and some of this geopolitical stuff dies down, I don't see that changing. It seems to me that everyone is waiting for the next 'big one'. And the assumption is that it will be catastrophic. What we need to see to change that is good leadership. We don't have that. At least not in Europe. I would suggest neither in Japan or the U.S.

The China Russia Alliance
Paris ib 12:32 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
"Russia could fall back on its 150 billion yuan (HK$189.8 billion) currency swap agreement with China if the rouble continues to plunge. If the swap deal is activated for this purpose, it would mark the first time China is called upon to use its currency to bail out another currency in crisis. The deal was signed by the two central banks in October, when Premier Li Keqiang visited Russia."

If this is true, even in part, and if China has communicated with the United States that it could move funds out of the United States (possible - is that why Kerry cam out all conciliatory?), and if this comes off (we need time to see how things go) then that would make the Ruble a screaming buy right here. But we will only know that in hindsight. The less risk adverse might want to dive in now. :-)

Russia and China


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Mtl JP 12:32 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Jay - it is not about lending money at 2 or 0.6% for 10 years
It is an expression about fear and about where to park "money"

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
NY JM 12:29 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
IB, I am alarmed when I see US 10 year yields near 2%. When I see 10-yr bund yields at 0.6%, I say to myself, who would lend money for 10 years at that rate? It also raises more than just alarms for me.

Why Retracements Work and How to Use Them in Your Trading
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:19 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
I suggest watching this trading tip as you will why stocks have rebounded sharply and EURUSD has fallen sharply.



Understand why markets move and it should increase your confidence when you put on a trade. One of our role’s as a traders advocate is to pass on insights that we feel will help our members in their trading journeys. In this regard, I am updating a follow up article + video I posted three weeks ago as the price action over the past two days makes this trading tip a very timely one. As you will see, this trading tip played out like a blueprint.

Why Retracements Work and How to Use Them in Your Trading

The Japanese Bluff Continues
Paris ib 12:16 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Compare the two articles.

Bloomberg POST censorship


The Japanese Bluff Continues
Paris ib 12:14 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
I thought the swiftness with which Bloomberg censored the story on Japanese selling of U.S. bonds in October was indicative of the concern in some quarters about the possible withdrawal of foreign funding.

Something is not right.

Bloomberg before it censored the story


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 11:58 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Jay - there are a lot of ways to look at this. So far there has been no indication of capital flight from the U.S., although foreign buying has in recent months turned into selling of U.S. bonds (see Japan and China). I'm not sure rising yields are an indication that everything is hunky dory. But we'll see in the next six months or so.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Mtl JP 11:57 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
in the meantime :
gbpusd is under its Pivot now and
usdyen begging for attention (hopefully a barf bag)

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
I will join in on this discussion

US 10 year at 2.22% is not exactly rising (compare it to a near universal consensus of 3.00% to end the year) although off the earlier in the week lows around 2%.

Rising yields from an improving economy is a currency positive.

Rising yields from capital flight (e.g. Russia) is a currency negative

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 11:54 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Chris - one thing to note about credit growth in Europe: banks have tightened up lending criteria enormously. As usual particularly in regard to households and small business.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Paris ib 11:53 GMT 12/19/2014  - My Profile
Chris - one of the current trends in rallies in European bond markets and weakness in the U.S. bond market. We'll see about equities. We have potential for 'window dressing' in thin markets. The USD could also prove interesting.


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