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Livingston nh 00:25 GMT 12/09/2016
If the next Prez and Congress decide to impose tariffs but encourage capital spending the US will see a 19th century type expansion - much of the 3rd gen mfg and industrial factories in Asia and Europe were a result of WWII devestation -- the US became a Post Industrial Service Based economy -- If this changes ...... ?

stocks
Livingston nh 23:50 GMT 12/08/2016
singapore td 07:54 GMT

Sorry about delay

STOX - US stox - I have been looking at the possibility that a new BULL Market started (either last feb or on the Election Night Futures Plunge) -- if true then US recession fears are way off the mark

so -- market internals, a/d and vol up/down) have been firm since Election and chart has been supportive for SPX // as DC cb pointed out this has been the best post election move since 1996 -- ahh BUT that saw a 50% correction of the move before the Inauguration
__
This has been a strong move in STOX - Hillary move for two days and then Trump election -- market is discounting strong fundamentals that I don't see AND the good news of low tax repatriation of USD

__________
I trade 15 min option charts (SPX, NDX, RUT) but aware of the Big Picture Chart -- The Fed has fked up the markets the past 3 years and we may have one more year before normality // SIMPLE rule - a break below Election Night low on the Futures is a recession due -- so sharp downward moves are likely in Q1 // 2140 on spx holds we see 2300 by MAY -- a break of 2140 we see 1900 by May

MUG's Guess

BREAKING NEWS:
Mtl JP 22:51 GMT 12/08/2016


So I left on some errands early this morning, and
woopeee: Gap - now poof!, done , under the dome and in the bag.

Mtl JP 01:33 GMT November 14, 2016
Monday Trading: Reply
I have yet to see a gap not close
plz mind your risk


Took a while and a bit of patience but the tradition perpetuates and rewards pour in (with a posicarry bonus to boot!)

some of my best trades are those that I do not watch, just skewer it on, give it some parameters and let tradition take its course. This one was not even part of my stable of robots doing the trading.

I am thinking of specializing in (almost) nothing but trading opening gaps. Trading intensely one day a week does have a strong appeal, I admit.

do u gals and guys remember this ?


Friday Trading
Livingston nh 22:16 GMT 12/08/2016
of 3 legged Horses:
__________
Might not to be too early to start looking for the next great Peso trade -- some folks here remember Rubin thought the $3 USD/MXN (after a 3 decimal point deval) was OK but a move to $6 would be a "disaster" so here we are nearly two decades later at 20+ // check out the BRL and TRY - similar in price to the Peso way back (if you think 20+ is "too high" it was nearly 25 when President Reagan took office - of course, that was before it went above 3000 and NAFTA) - so now NAFTA and the illegal immigration (Rubin warning) are threatened by a new Prez

TRY and BRL - based on past performance bet the $2
------------
Maybe take a look at the Fed for next week - everything is priced in for a hike? so what's the Upside if they hike, based on last year some turmoil but EM has adjusted and Draghi has been more dovish so "modest" adjustments (don't bet the chalk at less than even) - best to take your $2 to buy a beer (altho where outside of Mexico can you get a $2 beer) and await the next race

Of course, what happens if Yellen finds a reason? -- does the yield curve steepen wildly? does the USD respond to higher inflation expectations or a dovish Fed? and STOX?

It's only 2 bucks
_________
OPEC has a deal -- MAYBE // it will be honored more in the Breach

Oil has been rising on hot air - promises not performance - folks are pretty sure "this time will be different" // I leave it to individual experience as to how often that NAG wins

the CBs are confusing inflation with oil price -- OPEC is a 3 legged horse -- if the oil price was that important MXN would be below Rubin's $6 -- go to the bar

Friday Trading
GVI Trading john bland 21:06 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Register for the Amazing Trader

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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike on December 14 are +100%.

Friday Trading
london red 20:46 GMT 12/08/2016
the dollar had a bit of a pause until today - eur was higher and yen was stuck. but thx to eur moving lower, the dxy is now looking to retest highs. tom shud see yen finally test 115. shud be worth buying any dip below 114 (113.30/50 might be low) towards the tenkan. anything below 113 wud call the abv into question. if the barrier fails at 115 youve got a tgt by 11558/75/90 and 116.13. its poss we go up and fall back dwn to end the trend so id suggest taking a profit with a small fade at those points and just see what happens. the 116 level was massive on the way down and its well capable of giving us a pullback to 11250 but weve had a bit of a pause so i wouldnt base case it.

Friday Trading
GVI Trading john bland 20:38 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

12-Dec Mon
No Major Data
13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits


Trading Themes--
  • The ECB policy decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases to EUR60b per month from EUR80b starting in April 2017 sounds like a "taper" to everyone we talk to. Nevertheless, President Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but it generated a "taper tantrum" nevertheless. The EURUSD immediately surged nearly to 1.0900 immediately on the news before tumbling back to just below 1.0600, as the announcement was digested. I warned this would be a volatile day!

  • The calendar is light on Friday. U.K. trade data can be a market-mover for the GBP. Also the University preliminary Sentiment data for December are due. Japan 3Q16 GDP data have been revised down today. Chinese trade data were mixed. Although exports improved on the back of increased demand from the U.S. and Europe.

  • We remain confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount continues. Odds for a reversal of the Trump victory are slim.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Trading john bland 20:37 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
nh- too true. I was complaining to Jay yesterday that most of my correlation trades have broken down.

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
GVI Forex Blog 20:26 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile

Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Livingston nh 20:26 GMT 12/08/2016
John - there are some curious cross-currents the past week -- stronger USD today and higher oil price, STOX up BIG yesterday but so were bonds, today VIX is higher w/ stox up and yields rising (is that why $ higher or is it because EUR is lower?)

New correlations for 2017?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
GVI Trading john bland 20:07 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Equities do not mind the higher USD. Look at top right quadrant of table for EUR performance.


Ring of fire active today
dc CB 19:41 GMT 12/08/2016
orange today
red last hour
This morning off the coast of Calif
Just now Solomon Islands

USGS



BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 17:40 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Report ECB govs pushed for 12 mo extension of QE

>> TTN.com

eurusd
Chicago AGA 17:21 GMT 12/08/2016
Last man standing day if you avoided the temptation to buy the falling knife.

Best call of the day!

eurusd
Kl Fs 12:55 GMT 12/08/2016
Took the opposite. Short euro 1.0790 stop 1.0843, target 1.05

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 16:30 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
ECB's Weidmann
-- did not agree with decision to extend bond purchases

>>TTN.com


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 15:31 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-42 vs. -45 exp vs. -50 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



BREAKING NEWS:
london red 14:54 GMT 12/08/2016
yes its a stealth taper but if u listen to him he is most insistent that policy will remain ultra loose, so that gives an idea of where they want the euro without saying it and offending some germans.

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 14:52 GMT 12/08/2016
yes daily tenkan. daily close below points at 105 retest while intraday bias to downside while under it.

GVI Data Calendar for 9 December 2016
GVI Forex Blog 14:50 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile

December 8, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, December 9, 2016.

  • Far East: CN- CPI
  • Europe: GB- Trade
  • North America: US- Wholesale Inventories, Univ of Michigan Survey, Rig Count, COT Report

WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

GVI Data Calendar for 9 December 2016


Thursday Trading
dc CB 14:42 GMT 12/08/2016
MAGA lol

Thursday Trading
GVI Trading john bland 14:30 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
how do you say "taper tantrum"?

BREAKING NEWS:
Belgrade Knez 14:20 GMT 12/08/2016

london red

are you talking about tenkan only on daily or other time frame please?

thank you.

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 14:10 GMT 12/08/2016
unable to stay under tenkan at 10651, with bond yields having flipped looks like ran out of downside fuel for now.

EURUSD, GBPJPY
Caribbean! Rafe... 14:05 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EURUSD:- Has to stay below 1.06 to enforce downtrend, above 1.06 negates my view.

GBPJPY:- Nice moves, BOD!

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 13:56 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Draghi:
-- did not consider reducing asset purchases if economy does better than expected
-- Tapering was not discussed

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 13:53 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Draghi: -- tapering was NOT discussed.

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 13:47 GMT 12/08/2016
bounce off daily tankan, needs strng hourly close 107 or higher or will go to tenkan again.

BREAKING NEWS:
dc CB 13:46 GMT 12/08/2016
DRAGHI: SUSTAINED EMPLOYMENT GAINS SUPPORT CONSUMPTION.
Brilliant. You can see why the eurozone needs such and expensive group of uberlords.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 13:42 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
Ridiculous, ECB sets policy based on the price of oil. They are tied to their stupid inflation target, no matter where the inflation does or does not come from! Aren't higher energy prices a drag on growth?

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless In Line
GVI Forex Blog 13:39 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims in line with estimates
<Click on chart for over twelve-year history

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless In Line


BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
258K vs. 255K exp. vs. 268K (r) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Thursday Trading
dc CB 13:28 GMT 12/08/2016


United States Steel would like to accelerate its investments and hire back laid-off employees now that Donald Trump will be occupying the Oval Office, CEO Mario Longhi told CNBC on Wednesday.

"I'd be more than happy to bring back the employees we've been forced to lay off during that depressive period," he said, which could be close to 10,000 jobs.

US Steel


eurusd
Kl Fs 13:28 GMT 12/08/2016
Draghi wants weaker euro. Dont fight with him.

eurusd
london red 13:24 GMT 12/08/2016
mkt has been buying euro since before ital ref, so could well have been a lot of profit taking on rally to 10850-109, fell dwn fast enough. q is does sup hold. if so ud fancy it to move higher again. but i wud prefer to see sup tested and held. 10690/95 and 10650 the bigger ones

eurusd
Tallinn viies 13:21 GMT 12/08/2016
got stoped out quickly.
re instated long position at 1,0747 with stop at 1,0697.
still believe we gonna test 1,0850 one more time.

Thursday Trading
GVI Trading john bland 13:18 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
DAX +75
DJ +22
SP +1

10-yr
US 2.405% +5.6bp
DE 0.427% +8.0bp

BREAKING NEWS:
Kl Fs 13:16 GMT 12/08/2016
Gold struggling also. Maybe a good short for 1160 stop above 1180

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 13:09 GMT 12/08/2016
bond yields are favouring euro upside (10bund now abv oct low yield) but clearly mkt needs to find equilibrium first.

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 13:06 GMT 12/08/2016
10690 is sup more at 10675 and 50. needs to move under 10650 for a refocus on 105 barrier.

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 13:06 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
ECB explicitly leaves all options open. Suggests to me they aren't 100% confident in the taper?

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 13:03 GMT 12/08/2016
60/67 might cap any small bounces if higher then 10775 and 108 but its a sell on rallies. they wont let you buy 107 to take it to 109 if its already been up there once. u dont get a second chance but draghi yet to speak so fade bounces while no move abv 10810.

BREAKING NEWS:
dc CB 13:00 GMT 12/08/2016
From statement:
From April 2017, the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of 60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If, in the meantime, the outlook becomes less favourable or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment of the path of inflation, the Governing Council intends to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration.

++++++++++++++++++++
weasel words. Consider that Angela Merkel may lose, she is the "last man standing". There Will Be "less favorable...financial conditions" for Mario and the ECB.

BREAKING NEWS:
Kl Fs 12:59 GMT 12/08/2016
Yes red. That is a big one. You must be blind to go long euro with that wick. Just sell!

BREAKING NEWS:
london red 12:56 GMT 12/08/2016
euro taps prev low 10851 and drops off, shud be supported until draghi speaks u might think but theres a nasty wick on hourly candle showing a top. you suspect they need to test 10690/50 despite whats gone one with the qe news.

eurusd
Kl Fs 12:55 GMT 12/08/2016
Took the opposite. Short euro 1.0790 stop 1.0843, target 1.05

eurusd
Tallinn viies 12:53 GMT 12/08/2016
trying long euro at 1,0790 with stop at 1,0740
target 1,0850

BREAKING NEWS:
Kl Fs 12:52 GMT 12/08/2016
Sell euro?

BREAKING NEWS:
GVI Trading john bland 12:50 GMT 12/08/2016  - My Profile
so ECB tapers QE starting in April 2017. EURUSD spikes to HOD 1.0875.


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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
9-Dec Fri
02:00 CN- CPI
09:30 GB- Trade
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

12-Dec Mon
No Major Data
13-Dec Tue
09:30 GB- CPI/RPI
14-Dec Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- Crude Oil
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
15-Dec Thu
00:00 All-Day- flash PMIs
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Current Account
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
16-Dec Fri
10:00 EZ- final HICP
13:30 Housing Starts/Permits


Trading Themes--
  • The ECB policy decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases to EUR60b per month from EUR80b starting in April 2017 sounds like a "taper" to everyone we talk to. Nevertheless, President Draghi claimed it was not a "taper" but it generated a "taper tantrum" nevertheless. The EURUSD immediately surged nearly to 1.0900 immediately on the news before tumbling back to just below 1.0600, as the announcement was digested. I warned this would be a volatile day!

  • The calendar is light on Friday. U.K. trade data can be a market-mover for the GBP. Also the University preliminary Sentiment data for December are due. Japan 3Q16 GDP data have been revised down today. Chinese trade data were mixed. Although exports improved on the back of increased demand from the U.S. and Europe.

  • We remain confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25bps on December 14. Monthly Job statistics and inflation are the two top items on which the FOMC monetary bases its policy decisions.

  • The U.S. Presidential vote recount continues. Odds for a reversal of the Trump victory are slim.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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