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FOREX FORUM
23/09/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI con: 50 pre: 50.2
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Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


September 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg And Service PMIs, CA- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt MFG PMI
  • Far East: CN- HsBC PMI
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg And Service PMIs
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt MFG PMI, Richmond Fed



Morning
nw kw 21:36 GMT 09/22/2014
Dollar drops after Bank of Canada deputy says economy still needs stimulus

Canada's struggling economy still needs the extra boost of monetary stimulus to help keep the recovery on track, and it might take longer than expected to get there, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said Monday.

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/cbc-news/dollar-drops-after-bank-of-canada-deputy-says-economy-still-needs-stimulus-1


Morning
sd sf 21:18 GMT 09/22/2014
OK - I switched my FX automated strategies on - after disabling over alot of them over the Referendum and FOMC.

Eur .. I saw them selling @60 and when price dropped under 20 they started buying to cover shorts.

now they have been offering @50 and looking to buy @30 and have some residual stops @66-67

GBP .. have been selling here @62/63 looking to buy the dip targeting 1.6420-30 ..as you can see the short term indicators are all o-bought which is why they are following that type of strategy.

YEN .. have been buying anything under 80 and selling when it gets above 109 .. this one is bit hard to read because things are shrinking range wise.

EURCAD -- saw buying of $cad @29 and buying of eurcad @68-72 - when it just shot up to 88 - they came in selling some out but the main target is 10-15 .. just above really.

overall despite negative sentiment towards the eur/usd there seems to be some short covering risk up to 70-75 at some point today.

from the AUD selling in the last 24 hours you would have thought they are expecting a bad Chinese Number today .. but I don't have anything in that myself.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
TUESDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI Economic sentiment survey
07:28 DE MFG &SVC PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG & SVC PMI  Economic sentiment survey
12:30 CA Retail Sales Consumer demand flat?
13:45  US Mfg MKt PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE IFO Climate  Top indicator seen soft
14:00 US New Homes Sales  Housing stat seen better
17:00 TRY 5-yr  belly of the curve
THURSDAY
.00:30 JP CPI  seen steady
12:30 US Initial Claims  correction seen
12:30 US Dur Goods  correction expected
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash Economic Sentiment Survey
FRIDAY
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 Revised data
13:55 US U Mich final Economic Sentiment seen flay


Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 20:51 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile



UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database.
High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile

Pre-Closing...


Current Market
dc CB 18:28 GMT 09/22/2014
US Auctions tues,wed,thurs. 2,5,7 yr.
must drive money stock and PM crunch

Current Market
Livingston nh 18:27 GMT 09/22/2014
Dudley still playing the loyal supporting role - urging folks not to take the DOTS seriously and insisting there is no rush to move on rates // OK so now we have Dudley DOTS that are just spots in front of your eyes and Yellen explaining her concept of Considerable Time where the concept of time is irrelevant (i.e., NOISE)

FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs
Mtl JP 18:17 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
you heard it thru the grapevine
I read it in GV's Econ Calendar:
23/09/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 50 50.2

"A" implies a potentially high degree of player reaction

FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs
GVI Forex john 17:49 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
I heard earlier that the HSBC flash PMI overnight is a major focus for Far East trading.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs
GVI Forex john 17:46 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Fundamentals for Trading. NEW EXCLUSIVE CHART: Prior to PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths clear: USD, CA, then CNY and AUD. AUD is very much tied to export demand from China.




RISK-OFF: Cautious Market Start For The Week. Active Calendar Tuesday
GVI Forex Blog 17:42 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- fl Mfg & Service PMIs, CA- Retail Sales, US- fl Mkt MFG PMI

Tuesday sees a slew of flash PMI reports and Canadian Retail Sales. In comments to the EU Parliament, ECB President Draghi expressed his concerns that the risks to the Eurozone economy were on the downside. His comments should weigh on the downside of EURUSD.

RISK-OFF: Cautious Market Start For The Week. Active Calendar Tuesday


Current Market
NY JM 16:55 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Market is not sure what to do with this sudden flip to risk off... any suggestions?

Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:32 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Worries about China were festering as the week began, with press articles circulating that Beijing may lower its 2015 growth targets and was unlikely to undertake any more major stimulus efforts. Small caps and momentum stocks are getting hit hard

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Global Sell-Off on China Jitters


Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 15:24 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-OFF posture heading into th European close Equity traders have been taking profits as they remain cautious about the risk of a future Fed policy tightening. Comments by ECB President Draghi  have been exceptionally dovish. The  EURUSD is lower.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.027%, -1.2bp. Peripheral bond yields are steady.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.509% -3.1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.576%, -0.0.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed lower . Bourses in Europe are ending  down. U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



ECB's Mario Draghi
Mtl JP 15:22 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
nh lets see who is in whose den:
US urges EU to do more to stimulate its economy - FT
-
representing the indispensable US was Jacob Lew with his speech

ECB's Mario Draghi
Livingston nh 14:57 GMT 09/22/2014
Draghi may be calling out the Germans - the French threw the Gauntlet last week and will be in Merkel's den this week

Current Market
NY JM 14:42 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Coming back after being away for over a week it seems to me that there is a sense of caution chasing the dollar as it moves higher. But that seems to be the case at every pause as traders look at the COT data and see a market that appears to be heavily long USD.

So it has been waiting for the elusive retracement that never seems to go as far as one would expect. This has been especially true in the EURUSD, which initially led the USD higher and now we see others joining in the USD parade.

Currently, proximity of EURUSD 1.28 may be leading to some caution, Same for USDJPY 110. GBP getting the cross flows today as Scotland risk is off the table and focus is back on when, not if rates will be raised.

To sum up, we are in a data dependent trading world where diverging monetary policies are supporting the USD and GBP vs. currencies such as the EUR and JPY so fundamentals are supporting the technicals.


U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Still roughly in line with lagged Pending Homes sales.


Central Banks Remain in Control: Outlook- September 21, 2014
Mtl JP 14:02 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Derby and Hilsenrath :
Fed Rate-Hike Tool Stirs Some Concern
-
Hils appears to be suggesting that the Fed gang is not overly concerned about potential volatility as nothing players wont be able to digest.


U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) August 2014
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile



ALERT
5.050 vs. 5.200 exp. vs. 5.150 (r 5.140)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
10-yr 2.573%

ECB's Mario Draghi
GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
I was surprised by Draghi's choice of words. He was more bearish on the EZ economy than I would have expected.

ECB's Mario Draghi
NY JM 13:24 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Should be but not a surprise and market focus is not on the EUR today. Watch 1.2850 as it will set its tone. Note high for the day was just above the 1.2865 pivot so trading below it most of the day.

ECB's Mario Draghi
Mtl JP 13:19 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
yey and hooray for CB's in control !

ECB's Mario Draghi
GVI Forex john 13:16 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Comments SHOULD BE EUR bearish.

ECB's Mario Draghi
GVI Forex 13:15 GMT 09/22/2014
Economic Recovery in Euro Area Losing Momentum and risks to econpmy claerly on the downsyde

euro
Mtl JP 12:57 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


at 1.2850-ish
- euro COT short at monster levels
- still bearish sentiment but enthusiasm for massive run down looks tempered
- s/t resistance around 1.2920
- support at round number at 1.2800

Chicago Fed Activity Index
PAR 12:47 GMT 09/22/2014
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic activity was below-trend in August, according to data released Monday. The Chicago Fed's national activity index fell to negative 0.21 in August from positive 0.26 in July, and the three-month averaged slowed to 0.07 from 0.2 in July. The biggest drag came from production-related indicators, as manufacturing production fell 0.4% and manufacturing capacity utilization declined in August, the Chicago Fed said. The index, which is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, is designed so that negative values indicate below-average growth and positive values indicate above-average growth. Forty-two indicators improved from July to August, while 43 indicators deteriorated, the report said.

cable
london red 12:44 GMT 09/22/2014
decending triangle of sorting basing at 16321 fib. below there 16277/80, a lot of support building tech wise and a good point to go long. a good trendline there and yet to be tested after referendum. have been looking for this to be touched before a better assault at higher levels. abv 6243/47 bias neutral. if abv 6255/56 then earlier high of day and then 16386 in sight.

euro
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:34 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
The crosses have given the EURO a breather and perhaps a defense of 1.28. Suggest reading the article below as this is a good example of following the path of least resistance.

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance
NY Global Traders Association 12:26 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile

I spent the past week hiking in the Rocky Mountains. I was standing on a small log foot bridge, around 10,000 feet above sea level, staring at a stream seeking its way around rocks. It reminded me of one of my 20 forex trading tips. Let me explain as it will help you to visualize how trends develop and how the forex market is constantly seeking the path of least resistance

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance


euro
london red 12:18 GMT 09/22/2014
yes jay its probably what given the euro a breather, eurcad and euraud. that and some quite big option buying with 12850 strikes.

euro
london red 12:15 GMT 09/22/2014
first touch 9th sept low john. im using 4h chart for that particular line. the second touch 17th sept low

FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs
GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: prior to PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths very clear: USD, GBP, EUR and JPY in that order. You can see why GBP and USD are strong, while EUR and JPY are weak I use Three month moving averages to smooth the monthly swings.

Note UK turing south while U.S. is accelerating to the upside.







euro
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:10 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


red, is this the trendline (red line at bottom of the chart) you noted?

By the way, weakness in commodity currencies keeping a lid on the USD elsewhere due to cross offsets.

ECB's Draghi
GVI Forex john 12:00 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
You've got to be patient with economic stimulus programs they take a long time to work.

ECB's Draghi
london red 11:56 GMT 09/22/2014
just slight sign of bottoming hicp but it wont do any good to mention it as market will over react to upside. he can mention it at 1.20-1.25

ECB's Draghi
Mtl JP 11:53 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Is there anything that can make Draghi sound optimistic, excited or hawkish ?

ECB's Draghi
New York GVI Calendar 11:11 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Monday, 22 September 2014
Board member: Mario Draghi
Event: Introductory statement by the President at the Quarterly Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
Time: 3 p.m. CET (13:00 GMT)

Text: The text will be made available on the ECB's website after delivery.

euro
london red 11:05 GMT 09/22/2014
9sept and 17sept low. late friday saw a minor false break on wide spreads/small volume, rejected. a second break highly likely to follow thru. so far now follow thru below prev low of 35. if abv 10 hour ma then new hod likely and inverse shs will at least be attempted if not completed as a lot can can from the start thru to the supposed planned end of a move.

euro
NY JM 11:00 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
red, can you be more specific on where that trendline comes from?

euro
london red 10:57 GMT 09/22/2014
prev low at 35, break here puts 12824 trendline in play. often its a point they flip for a rally. here a inverse shs could be in play. worth watching this pair close as will make its move soon.

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:57 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
My trade of the day worked out nicely with EURUSD having a limited upside and backing off ahead of Draghi although commodity currencies are the underperformers. If you missed it, see below for my video update

For Sept 22
Forex Trade of the Day

EURUSD downside stays at risk

Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 10:50 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
Dollar came off its highs in the Asian session, weakness carried into early European morning. USD/CHF weakened slightly while the Swissie remained unchanged against euro. Sterling rose ahead of the open. Long term Treasuries rose on traders looking for a deal. AUD/USD headed to a multi-month low with nothing in sight to reverse its course, breaking 0.8900 level. Yen remained mixed through the session finding some strength in commodity currencies.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Core Bonds open higher ahead of Draghi testimony


Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:29 GMT 09/22/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of 4iew. Positive bias for the EUR in a cautious start to the new week. EURUSD is steady.






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