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FOREX FORUM
22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y con: n/a pre: 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm con: 0.20% pre: 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy con: 2.20% pre: 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales con: 0.40% pre: 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos con: n/a pre: 0.10%
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EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 11:11 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly lower heading into Draghi Speech later. JPY gains vs, the EUR following word Russian aid convoy enters into Ukraine. EURUSD steady below 1.3300.





Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:03 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
For those who missed it (posted last night)

Forex Trade of the Day

Event Filled Friday offers an opportunity. Feel free to agree, disagree, discuss, or post your own trade.

Jackson Hole
Livingston nh 10:48 GMT 08/22/2014
Schedule and some papers
LINK

Moscow defies Kiev, orders aid convoy onto Ukrainian soil
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:43 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile

(Reuters) - Russia ordered a convoy of aid trucks across the border into eastern Ukraine on Friday apparently without Kiev's permission, raising the danger of direct confrontation with the Ukrainian military which is fighting pro-Russian rebels.

A Reuters witness said about 70 white-painted trucks, part of a column of about 260 that had been waiting at the border for over a week, had crossed the border and was heading towards the rebel stronghold of Luhansk accompanied by a small number of separatist fighters....

Moscow defies Kiev, orders aid convoy onto Ukrainian soil


Daily USD based Pivot Points
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:40 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
As posted last night on GVI Forex. EURUSD high so far 1.3297

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:24 GMT 08/22/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD

Daily Pivot 1.3271
R1 1.3299 (close to key 1.3297 res)
R2 1.3319 (just below 1.3321 res)

s1 1.3251 (around the "50": level)
S2 1.3223 (61.8% of 1.2745-1.3996)

Click for Global-View FX Chart Points


GVI Forex Blog 10:38 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
FX markets were on hold with USD just off its 2014 peak against a basket of major currencies ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole conference. Markets are still weighing up the implications of the minutes of the last MPC and FOMC meetings. Position squaring seemed to be the main objective among traders who had long dollar positions into the Fed conference.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Focus on Jackson Hole Symposium speeches by Yellen and Draghi


EUR/JPY
Ternopil SMV 10:28 GMT 08/22/2014
Is it time to sell eur/jpy? any view.

Daily USD based Pivot Points
GVI Forex john 10:02 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Key Canadian Data Due on the Open. Focus on Yellen and Draghi Speeches Later
GVI Forex Blog 09:14 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi

Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speak later at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming. Perhaps.market expectations for this event have become overblown? The surprise would be if Yellen is less dovish than the markets appear to be counting on.

Key Canadian Data Due on the Open. Focus on Yellen and Draghi Speeches Later


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 08:56 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Markets have set up for what are widely expected to  dovish speeches today by Fer Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi from Jackson Hole, Wyo  The surprise would be if either of the two is not dovish. Markets are currently in a mixed  RISK post. The. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.98% -1bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.38%  -3bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.40%, 0bp. A dovish speech is expected  from Fed Char Yellen today. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not  sure Yellen will be as dovish  as hoped for.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. shares are up slightly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).



N) UBS economists forecast China 2015 GDP slowing further to 6.8% - China Daily - Stating:
nw kw 08:27 GMT 08/22/2014
"Property downturn /interest rate will depend on fed for Hong Kong will fallow us timing

N) UBS economists forecast China 2015 GDP slowing further to 6.8% - China Daily - Stating:
Syd 08:10 GMT 08/22/2014
CN) UBS economists forecast China 2015 GDP slowing further to 6.8% - China Daily - Stating: "Property downturn reflects a structural turning point in the sector, and that policy easing can only help stabilize but not turn around the downshift. We expect commodity housing starts and construction to slow further by year end and into 2015, weighing more heavily on the economy... Even with additional policy easing including cuts in mortgage down payment requirement and rates, we see property sales and starts declining further in 2015 and GDP growth slowing to 6.8%... Although the earlier than expected relaxation of property policies has boosted market sentiment, structural issues in the sector remain. As such, we think the re-rating will be capped by the higher leverage, falling margins, and high inventory levels of some property companies." - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 08:07 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
**Economic Data*** - (TW) TAIWAN JUL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.0% V 4.0%E - (US) NORTH AMERICA JULY SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.07 V 1.09 PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Analysts calling for more China stimulus after soft flash PMI; Markets quiet ahead of Yellen speech at Jackson Hole - Source TradeTheNews.com


How to make money
SaaR KaL 08:03 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
(How do you say dat in Latin Ritual...anyone know?)

I am gonna start praying these days... Hopeless Humans are just getting to me...So will start with a Cocktail of Jewish / Islamic / Christian Rituals every morning (Multi-Tasking)...just might save some dogs and cats...I like them better then humans now!!

"God please Save da Cats and Doggies...Humans are hopeless dings...I hope da Bankers and Politicians get hard on someday..they blame us for that!!"

"Oh God...Please those azzholes keep getting to me in Fox News / BBC...can you send them money...and please no dog food ads...make them shut the fork up...oh god please!!"

..."Now Google translate"

Raptor Ranch (2013) plot:
nw kw 05:45 GMT 08/22/2014
The greenback is broadly weaker in Asia ahead of the Jackson Hole summit statement by U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen. Ms. Yellen is regarded for her particularly accommodative stance on monetary policy and could once again soothe fears of a sooner-than-expected interest rate rise. If she reiterates that employment levels and economic growth are still not optimal, the U.S. dollar is likely to tank

GVI Forex Blog 03:51 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
The European markets recovered a bit on the back of a better than expected Flash PMI of

Morning Briefing : 22-Aug-2014 -0351 GMT


AceTrader Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:35 GMT 08/22/2014


Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

22 Aug 2014 02:31GMT

USD/JPY -.... Despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. economic figures on Thur, investors shrugged off the data n decided to take profit ahead of Fri's Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole as market anticipated that she will deliver dovish remarks to complement the hawkish FOMC minutes in order to convey to markets that even though rates will rise, monetary authorities will make sure they do so gradually. Dlr retreated after rising to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 in Asia yesterday and then briefly weakened to 103.60 in NY morning b4 climbing back to 103.95 in Tokyo morning on renewed cross-selling in yen due to increase of risk appetite (S&P 500 climbed to its intra-day all-time high of 1,991.45 n closed at record high of 1,990.15 on Thur).

As Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average is also heading for a 10th day of gains - the longest winning streak in 26 years (N225 is currently trading up 19 points to 15,605), therefore, buying dlr on dips for a re-test of daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) is the way to go, however, sharp gain abv there is unlikely to be seen as layers of selling interest on profit-taking are noted up fm 104.10 to 104.40. On the downside, bids are located at 103.70-60 n then 103.50 with stops emerging below 103.30.

Yesterday the greenback stabilised after retreating briefly to 103.60 after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including exiting home sales, leading index, Philly Fed. Bids are now located at 103.65-60 whilst offers are tipped below Asian fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 104.00.


Friday will see the release of Canada's CPI and retail sales. Investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of a keynote speech at 14:00GMT by Fed Chair Janet Yellen who may provide her take on the latest data on labor markets at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Former PayPal Exec: EBay Should Just Rebrand As PayPal
Syd 01:57 GMT 08/22/2014
eBay should just rebrand itself as PayPal.
“Change the logos, change the paint, change the T-shirts, and you get the same value basically as spinning off PayPal,” he says. “Just rename the company. It’s a really simple solution.

You could do it in probably 24 hours.


The US Dollar Breaks Out
Syd 00:39 GMT 08/22/2014
GaveKal's Louis Gave warns the world is entering an era of USD strength and thus portfolios need to be adjusted

The US Dollar Breaks Out


AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Lose Grip On 0.93 Mark
Syd 00:38 GMT 08/22/2014
technical picture for AUD/USD has lost its bullish lustre.

LINK


USD BREAKOUT
Syd 00:28 GMT 08/22/2014
USD BREAKOUT

LINK


Forex News
GVI Forex Blog 00:21 GMT 08/22/2014  - My Profile
* Dollar rally loses steam as investors eye Yellen's speech

* Yellen could counter hawkish tone in Fed minutes

* ECB Draghi also due to speak at Jackson Hole

FOREX-Dollar rally cools as Jackson Hole takes centre stage


Risk On/Off Heat Map
to dk 23:46 GMT 08/21/2014


Buy EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

test

Forex Trade of the Day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:06 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Forex Trade of the Day

Event Filled Friday offers an opportunity. Feel free to agree, disagree, discuss, or post your own trade.

Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile


August 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen, EZ- Draghi
  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi at Jackson Hole
  • North America: CA= CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen at Jackson Hole, COT Report



Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 21:19 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
nh 18:59 GMT August 11, 2014
The geo-political concerns have not (and cannot) be resolved -- these are political and they will resurface // only a positive war outcome can settle a political issue - otherwise it festers to reappear at a later date //
-
today from Hagel: ISIS Is 'Beyond Anything' The U.S. Has Seen

and

according to Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday afternoon that it would not be possible to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria without attacking its fighters in Syria.
-
Billion dollar aircraft carriers, billion dollar nuclear subs, f-18s, hellfires, b-52s, B-1s, space and cyber spy network, nearly $500 billion yearly budget...
what are they missing ?

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 21:14 GMT 08/21/2014
cad bonds indicating strong print eur/cat intresting

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 21:03 GMT 08/21/2014


Gold


The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. will it be Smacked again hard overnight?????

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 20:21 GMT 08/21/2014
“We’re going into the Labor Day with the lowest gasoline prices for most motorists since 2010 for the holiday,” Michael Green, a Washington-based AAA spokesman, said by phone yesterday. “This really helps make travel more affordable and leave travelers with more money to spend on other things while on their trips.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

(lowest gasoline prices Since THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS...TinHat Co-inkydink Patrol)

Labor Day Weekend to See Most U.S. Drivers in Six Years


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 20:11 GMT 08/21/2014
chart of the day

SnP


" Trade Ideas "
Lahore FM 19:57 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Buy usdx
Entry: Now Target: Three month exit Stop: To your tolerance

Just when some desperate usd bears are groping about thinking this is thetail end of usd bullrun a freaky spike further pushing usd higher makes most sense.several charts that reval upcoming usd strength or weakness point to more usd strength for another stretch of several weeks.

Crude and gold harbingers.usdchf and usdcad perhaps next two.

Weekly Trading Planner
GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole- dovish comments???
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole- dovish

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
nw kw 19:41 GMT 08/21/2014
U.S. oil prices rose slightly Thursday on tight supply and signs of an improving economy.



Chart Points - Free FX Database
GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.


Chart Points -- Trading Points
GVI Forex john 19:17 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
Pre-Closing...


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Mtl JP 19:16 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
SnP to 1,993
DJIA to 17,066
all economic signs are fantastic
there is no yellen put

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 19:01 GMT 08/21/2014
Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

10AM Friday... probably minus a milli second or two,
will belong to the Borg Collective...We will take-out all your stops...and assimilate your funds

Resistance is Futile...


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
nh I have no other explanation for why shares are up and bond yields are falling. I'm just saying I feel the markets have a lot of room for disappointment tomorrow.

Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Livingston nh 18:45 GMT 08/21/2014
John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Livingston nh 18:45 GMT 08/21/2014
John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
dc CB 18:39 GMT 08/21/2014
the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove.

So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
dc CB 18:34 GMT 08/21/2014
dc CB 01:28 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes:
a little over 36 hours before Gammy's Speak-O-Rama is released
How low will it go? sub 1240?

The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. Smacked again hard overnight?????


U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
GVI Forex Blog 18:20 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi

Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. U.S. data on Friday were broadly better than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims fell slightly back below the 300K line. The Markit Mfg PMI surged higher, Existing Homes sales gained strongly, while Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index both outperformed expectations.

U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 18:09 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
10=yr 2.403% -3bp

the market has fully discounted a dovish Yellen. The risk is that she disappoints!

August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
dc CB 17:33 GMT 08/21/2014
O O OCare ...special questions on the PhillyFed

AffordableCare Questions


Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Mtl JP 16:12 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
picture worth millions of words of what ails the money printers:
lack of usage of their so-called "stimulus"
curtesy: st louis fed

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading
GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

This article is based around a regular series of reports I publish most business days on the public forex forum at global-view.com. This report is based on what appears to be a simple graph (see below) which contains a surprising amount of information.


The heart of the chart is two red interest rate lines. The dotted red line is the U.S. Fed Funds rate which is the administered overnight interest rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This rate moves up and down in response to Fed actions to try to manage the economy.

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading


Global Markets News
GVI Forex Blog 15:36 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile
EUR/USD hit resistance around 1.3245 overnight and has moved up toward 1.3290 through the US session. Gold fell to two-month lows below $1,280 this morning, most likely thanks to expectations the Fed could hike interest rates sooner than expected. Note that the yield on the 10-year UST has not eased up much, with buying though the US session driving it momentarily below 2.42%.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole; US PMI and Housing Data Outperform


Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT 08/21/2014  - My Profile

Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON mild posture late in Europe on Thursday. Flash PMI data in the Fare East and Europe were been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. U.S. headline data were broadly stronger than forecast. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned lower from earlier ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% 0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are down.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.41%  -1bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -1bp. A major focus is an expected  dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not  sure Yellen will be as dovish  as hoped for.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).




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